After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/23/2013 | 09/22/2013 | 09/23/2013 | 09/24/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Georges St-Pierre | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Johny Hendricks | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Carlos Condit | 3 | (2) | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | Rory MacDonald | 4 | (3) | 4 | 5 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Demian Maia | 5 | (4) | 5 | 4 | 7 | |||||||
| 6. | Jake Ellenberger | 6 | (5) | 6 | 7 | (8) | 6 | ||||||
| 7. | Martin Kampmann | 7 | (6) | 6 | (7) | 5 | |||||||
| 8. | Matt Brown | 7 | (8) | 8 | (10) | 9 | (10) | ||||||
| 9. | Robbie Lawler | 9 | (8) | 9 | (10) | T9 | (OC) | 8 | |||||
| 10. | Nick Diaz | 8 | (7) | 10 | (11) | ||||||||
| Jake Shields | 8 | (9) | |||||||||||
| Tarec Saffiedine | 10 | (9) | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||
| Josh Koscheck | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Mike Pierce | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title, Johnny Hendricks would get the next chance at Georges St-Pierre. As for the #1 contender, Carlos Condit hasn't won enough to qualify, so I'd match with Rory MacDonald with Damain Maia to see who gets the winner of GSP/Hendricks. Carlos instead would get Matt Brown with the winner likely getting to take part in the next #1 contender's match. Robbie Lawler is the last top 10 fighter in the division coming off of a win. I'd give him Jake Shields with the winner of the matchup likely getting the Condit/Brown winner for the next #1 contender's match. As for those fighers in the top ten coming off of a loss, although it may be too soon, I'd rematch Martin Kampmann with Jake Ellenberger and see if "The Juggernaut" burns himself out in the first round again. As for Nick Diaz, he seems to be retired, but if he wants a fight, he can take on Josh Koshcheck. As for the winners just outside the top ten, I'd match up Tarec Saffiedine with Mike Pierce and see if I couldn't get one of them in position to be a contender (or be used as a stepping stone for a contender) later on in 2014.
Matches the UFC has Made
Hendricks will be taking on GSP for the title at UFC 166 in November. Condit is also taking on Brown at UFC on FOX 9 in December. The UFC has decided to match up MacDonald with Lawler and Maia with Shields. I can only assume the more impressive winner of those two will get the next title shot. The UFC has also set up Tyron Woodley to take on Koscheck at UFC 166 and Rousimar Palhares (moving down from middleweight) to take on Pierce.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Along with mixing up MacDonald/Maia and Lawler/Shields into MacDonald/Lawler and Maia/Shields, the UFC has already set up a couple of the matches I mentioned: GSP/Hendricks and Condit/Brown. I think it's worthwhile to keep Kampmann/Ellenberger together. That just leaves Diaz without an opponent. Since I really don't expect him to come back, I'll leave things that way.
Although the division has one of the most dominate champions in GSP, the UFC welterweight still has quite a few interesting options, and there are a number of good title fight possiblities: enough to last at least through the end of 2014 which gives plenty of time for the emergence of new stars and threats. The future of the welterweight division currently looks more promising than the future of any of the weight divisions above it.
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