After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/06/2013 | 09/08/2013 | 09/06/2013 | 09/06/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Jon Jones | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Phil Davis | 4 | (3) | 2 | 3 | 5 | |||||||
| 3. | Alexander Gustafsson | 2 | (1) | 6 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| 4. | Lyoto Machida | 5 | (4) | 3 | 4 | 6 | |||||||
| 5. | Rashad Evans | 6 | (5) | 4 | 2 | 7 | |||||||
| 6. | Glover Teixeira | 3 | (2) | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||||||
| 7. | Antonio Nogueira | 7 | (6) | 7 | 8 | 4 | |||||||
| 8. | Dan Henderson | 8 | (7) | 5 | 5 | 8 | |||||||
| 9. | Chael Sonnen | 10 | (9) | 8 | 9 | ||||||||
| 10. | Gegard Mousasi | 9 | (8) | 10 | |||||||||
| Maurico Rua | 10 | 10 | |||||||||||
| Ryan Bader | 9 | ||||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the belt, I'd give Phil Davis the next crack at Jon Jones. To determine the next #1 contender, I'd pit Alexander Gustafsson against Glover Teixeira. Of the remaining fighters coming off of wins, the top two (Rashad Evans and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira) have recently fought and the fight was not good. We don't need to see that one again. So instead we'll match up Evans with Chael Sonnen and Nogueira with Gegard Mousasi. Similiar story with the top ranked fighters coming off of losses: Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson recently fought and it was not entertaining. I'm not sure that we need the triology, but I'm combo Machida with Shogun Rua and then Henderson with Ryan Bader since I think together those would be more entertaining than Machida/Bader II and Henderson/Rua II.
Matches the UFC has Made
In about a week, Gustafsson will be taking on Jones for the title with Teixeira waiting in the wings to take on the winner. Machida is moving down to middleweight where he will first face off against Tim Kennedy. Evans is matched up with Sonnen. Henderson will be rematching against Vitor Belfort who's moving up to light heavyweight while waiting to see if he's going to get the next crack at the middleweight title.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Sticking with the "winner vs winner" philosophy, I guess I'd set up Davis versus Mousasi since Davis has recently (enough) beaten Nogueira. Shogun gets to dance against Bader to get one of those two back on the right track. I'm going to have to dig a bit deeper into the ratings to find an opponent for Nogueira. In my opinion, he's overrated, so I'm going to use him to find out if Ryan Jimmo is for real.
After years of too frequent title changes starting with Rampage taking the title from Chuck, the light heavyweight division finally has another dominate champion in "Bones" Jones. Until he moves to heavyweight (assuming he does), I expect that to continue, and at the frequent pace Jones usually fights compared to the other champions, the UFC is likely going to be hard pressed to put forth legitimate contenders. It may be time to have him coach on TUF again just to slow him down.
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