After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/02/2013 | 09/01/2013 | 08/05/2013 | 08/22/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Cain Velasquez | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Junior dos Santos | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Daniel Cormier | 3 | (2) | 3 | 4 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | Fabricio Werdum | 4 | (3) | 5 | 3 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Antonio Silva | 5 | (4) | 4 | 5 | 5 | |||||||
| 6. | Josh Barnett | 7 | (6) | 7 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| 7. | Travis Browne | 6 | (5) | 6 | 8 | ||||||||
| 8. | Alistair Overeem | 8 | (7) | 8 | 6 | 9 | |||||||
| 9. | Frank Mir | 9 | (8) | 10 | 7 | 6 | |||||||
| 10. | Mark Hunt | 9 | 10 | ||||||||||
| Antonio Nogueria | 8 | ||||||||||||
| Roy Nelson | 10 | (9) | |||||||||||
| Stipe Miocic | 10 | ||||||||||||
Note that Sherdog and MMA Weekly haven't updated their rankings in nearly a month, and thus aren't taking into account that Browne defeated Overeem and Barnett beat Mir.
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title shot, Cormier would be the one to battle Cain next. I know that Cormier has said that he won't fight Velasquez and that he's planning on moving down to light heavyweight. I'm not a fan of the "won't fight a teammate" attitude and won't let that prevent me from making matches between such. For the next crack at the title, I'd pit dos Santos against Werdum in a rematch of their fight from 2008. Cigano knocked out Werdum 80 seconds into that fight, and it's time to see if he could do it again. The only other fighters in the top ten coming off of wins are Barnett and Browne, so I'll let them throw down. Antonio Silva's in a bad position in the division where he has two quick, decisive losses to the current champ. As such, I'll use him to see how "for real" Mark Hunt is. And finally I'll pit Overeem versus Mir in what would likely be a loser leaves town match.
Matches the UFC has Made
The UFC has jumped the gun in my opinion and given dos Santos the title shot against Cain. While I do want to see the trilogy completed, I think now is a bit soon. Cormier is going to fight Roy Nelson. I'm not sure how this match helps Daniel work his way down to light heavyweight. No one else from the top ten is currently set to fight.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Barnett is the big benefactor of the nonsense with Cormier as I'd pit him against Werdum for the #1 contender-ship. With Josh fighting elsewhere, the next best opponent for Browne would be Stipe Moicic. My Big Foot/Mark Hunt and Overeem/Mir match ups are still good to go with how things currently stand.
Sadly, the UFC Heavyweight division is not very deep, but it's certainly not that way for a lack of trying. The UFC has on their roster the top 14 fighters on Fight Matrix's heavyweight rankings, all of the ranked fighters plus other contenders from Sherdog's, and all of the MMA Weekly top ten heavyweights. There is just a really wide spread between those at the top of the division to those at the second tier and an even wider spread to the fighters below that. If Cain defeats Junior in October, it wouldn't surprise me to see Velasquez/dos Santos IV in 2015 (likely over Memorial Day weekend) since it'll going to be hard to come up with compelling challengers.
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