The third week of the NFL season is completed, and teams are making progress towards jockeying for position. At this point in the season, the winners are still seeing their division and playoff chances increase when they win and decrease when they lose. Later in the season, the result of the divisional leader will likely have a bigger impact than the outcome of the game for the particular team. As always, these percentages are created by randomly determining the outcome of the remaining games with each set of iterations having a set team win out and another lose out (each team has an equal number of each of those settings).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 9.0% | 19.3% | -7.7% | -11.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 34.8% | 57.3% | +2.8% | +5.6% |
| New England Patriots | 37.6% | 59.6% | +3.2% | +5.7% |
| New York Jets | 18.5% | 37.1% | +1.7% | +6.2% |
Although Miami and New England are both 3-0, the Patriots currently have a better chance of winning the division since they have played and won two divisional games while the Dolphins have played none. Buffalo has the worst chance of winning their division of any team in the AFC (but not the worst chance at making the playoffs).
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 36.0% | 45.9% | +3.5% | +6.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 36.0% | 45.8% | +2.4% | +5.4% |
| Cleveland Browns | 17.5% | 23.9% | +1.3% | +2.7% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.4% | 14.1% | -7.2% | -8.5% |
The Bengals and Ravens are essentially equal in odds of winning the division and making the playoffs. They are equal in record and divisional record, but Cincinnati has played two of their inter-conference games (going 1-1) while the Ravens have played all of their games in the AFC and lost a common game. The Browns got the least out of their victory over the weekend mostly because it came against a non-conference 0-3 team.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 32.1% | 43.9% | -8.9% | -11.7% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 31.2% | 41.5% | +6.4% | +6.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.4% | 13.8% | -3.7% | -5.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 26.3% | 40.5% | +6.1% | +7.3% |
The AFC North is the only division to still have a three way tie at the top. The Texans took the biggest hit from losing to the Ravens but still have a slight edge in the division by having the only division win of any team in the division. Tennessee lags behind the other two by virtue of giving up that divisional loss. The Jaguars have the lowest percentage chance of making the playoffs in all of the NFL.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 38.3% | 59.0% | +7.4% | +8.7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 37.6% | 55.8% | +6.0% | +5.8% |
| Oakland Raiders | 11.1% | 21.0% | -7.8% | -11.7% |
| San Diego Chargers | 13.0% | 21.6% | -5.7% | -10.3% |
The Broncos' odds of winning the division and making the playoffs have increase beyond Kansas City's since they played and won a divisional game this past weekend. Likewise, the Raiders chances fell below the Chargers for the opposite reason.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 44.8% | 56.4% | +11.4% | +12.5% |
| New York Giants | 13.6% | 18.8% | -3.1% | -5.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 28.1% | 37.6% | -5.3% | -6.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 13.5% | 17.7% | -3.0% | -5.4% |
Dallas has divisional win percentage higher than any team in the AFC but that is lower than any of the other divisional leaders in the NFC. At 0-3, the odds of New York and Washington winning the division are pretty much equal, but the Giants have a slightly better chance of making the playoffs since one of their losses so far has been to an AFC team while the Redskins have lost all of their games within the division.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 46.8% | 65.7% | +6.5% | +9.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 29.6% | 48.4% | +4.6% | +10.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | 16.9% | 30.3% | -7.5% | -6.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.7% | 14.5% | -3.6% | -4.7% |
The Bears have a good opportunity to further improve their odds of winning the North as they go on the road to take on Detroit. Green Bay has the week off and is likely to see their percentages both go down next week. The Vikings have the worst chance of winning their division of any team in the NFL and need to get a win at home against the winless Steelers this week.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 15.8% | 30.9% | -7.5% | -7.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 19.0% | 32.0% | +2.9% | +7.9% |
| New Orleans Saints | 55.9% | 72.3% | +9.0% | +10.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.2% | 18.0% | -4.4% | -5.0% |
New Orleans has the best chance of winning their division and making the playoffs of any team at this point. The Panthers have the second best odds in the division as they are the only team in the division that hasn't lost to the Saints.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 15.7% | 29.0% | -4.0% | -7.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.6% | 30.0% | -4.3% | -6.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 50.9% | 68.0% | +12.6% | +10.6% |
| St. Louis Rams | 18.8% | 30.5% | -4.2% | -7.6% |
The Seahawks have the second-best chance of winning their division in the NFL and are one of two teams currently above 50% in regards to winning their division. The rest of the division is fairly even with St. Louis having an edge since their only win has been in the division. The Niners are behind in regards to division chances since their win was in a uncommon game but then has a better playoff chance than the Cardinals because one of their losses was to an AFC opponent.
Some of the 0-3 and 1-2 teams are already in the position where if they win out they still might not win their division. These teams (and the percentage of time they win their division) are:
| Minnesota Vikings | 97.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 99.0% |
| Oakland Raiders | 99.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | 99.7% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 99.8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 99.9% |
| New York Giants | 99.9% |
In reality, only the Vikings and Buccaneers chances are significantly lower (and they will still most likely win their division if they win out). But I still think it's interesting to note that this early in the season, teams' futures are already being taken out of their hands. Do also note, that if they win out, these teams would be guaranteed to at least be a wild card team.
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