The third week of the NFL season is in the books, and the divisional standings are starting to rely a little less on tiebreakers (combined conference point standing wasn't needed at all this week). The AFC is proving to be tougher than the NFC so far this year as both of the AFC's Wild Card teams are undefeated while the #6 seed in the NFC is 1-2. This is largely caused by the AFC teams holding a 11-3 record against their counterparts this year.
What follows is a breakdown of the current playoff picture with a look ahead to how it could look after next week. As always, this data is based on scoring all unplayed games as 0-0 ties.
Starting off in the AFC and in the East, both the Patriots and Dolphins are undefeated. New England has played two divisional games while Miami has played none, so the Patriots are currently ahead in the divisional record tiebreaker 2-0-4 to 0-0-6. The rest of the division is ranked by record with the Jets in third at 2-1 followed by the Bills at 1-2.
In the North, Baltimore and Cincinnati are tied at the top at 2-1. Both teams have the same record in divisional games, common games, and conference games, so this one comes down to strength of victory where the Ravens have a slight edge. The Browns are third at 1-2, and the Steelers are last having yet to win.
Down South there's a three way tie between the Colts, Texans, and Titans. Houston gets the edge here having defeated Tennessee thus leads the head-to-head tiebreaker 1-0-3 to 0-0-4 (Indianapolis) to 0-1-3 (Tennessee). The Colts the edge the Titans for second via divisional record (0-0-6 to 0-1-5). Jacksonville sits in last at 0-3.
The West also boast a pair of undefeated teams in Denver and Kansas City. The Broncos have the edge here having played a divisional game. Oakland and San Diego are tied for third at 1-2 and the Chargers get the edge here because the Raiders have played and lost a divisional game while San Diego hasn't played any yet.
As for ranking the division leaders, the Patriots and Broncos are tied at the top. After tying on a few of the tie breakers, New England finally takes the lead on strength of schedule. The Ravens and Texans are also tied and since Baltimore just beat Houston this past weekend, they get the #3 spot.
Moving onto the Wild Card, the two spots go to the remaining two undefeated AFC teams: Kansas City and Miami. The Chiefs have played two NFC opponents while the Dolphins have only played one, so Miami has the tiebreaker lead in regards to conference record: 2-0-10 vs 1-0-11. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:
Moving onto the NFC, Dallas has the best record in the East (2-1) and thus the top spot. Philadelphia is second alone at 1-2. New York and Washington are tied at the bottom at 0-3. The Giants have the tiebreaker edge since one of their losses was not in a common game (Carolina) so they're slightly ahead on that tiebreaker: 0-2-10 vs 0-3-9.
Up North, all of the teams can be ranked by record. The Bears are first undefeated at 3-0. In second are the Lions at 2-1. The Packers follow at 1-2 with the Vikings at the bottom at 0-3.
The undefeated Saints lead the South. Atlanta and Carolina are tied for second at 1-2 with the Panthers having the tiebreaker edge since they haven't lost (nor played) a divisional game like the Falcons have. Tampa Bay is 0-3 and in fourth.
Out West, the Seahawks lead the division at 3-0. Everyone else is 1-2. St. Louis gets second since they've beaten the Cardinals and thus have the head-to-head tiebreaker 1-0-3 versus 0-0-4 (49ers) versus 0-1-3 (Cardinals). San Francisco is then in third by having a better conference record: 1-1-10 versus 1-2-9.
Looking at the division leaders in the NFC, only the Cowboys aren't 3-0 so they're the #4 seed. The Saints have the tiebreaker over the Bears and Seahawks by virtue of playing all of their games against NFC opponents (and thus have the best conference record at 3-0-9 versus 2-0-10 for Seattle and 1-0-11 for Chicago). Seattle is likewise second via conference record.
As for the Wild Cards, Detroit is the only non-division leader with a winning record and thus get the #5 spot. The #6 seed is up for grabs between the 1-2 Eagles, Packers, Panthers, and Rams. Of those teams, Philadelphia has been "lucky" to lose both of it's games against AFC opponents and thus has the tiebreaker (and the #6 seed) by virtue of having the best conference record (1-0-11). Here's the NFC playoff picture:
Week 4 starts the bye week rotation in the NFL, and Carolina and Green Bay will be off. Neither is currently in the playoff picture and they will remain out after week 4. Eventually the bye weeks will play into who's possibly in the following week's picture.
Twenty teams have some chance of being in the playoff picture next week. The four NFC division leaders are all guaranteed to still be there after next week. Everyone else has a chance to completely fall out. Here's the numbers for each team assuming that the outcome of each game next week is 50/50:
| Division % | Playoff % | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| NFC West | Seattle Seahawks | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 75.0% | 98.7% |
| AFC East | New England Patriots | 75.0% | 98.0% |
| AFC South | Houston Texans | 62.5% | 62.5% |
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | 50.0% | 65.9% |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | 50.0% | 56.3% |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| AFC East | Miami Dolphins | 25.0% | 92.7% |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 25.0% | 55.8% |
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| AFC South | Indianapolis Colts | 25.0% | 29.9% |
| AFC South | Tennessee Titans | 12.5% | 29.1% |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| NFC West | St. Louis Rams | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| AFC East | New York Jets | 0.0% | 17.4% |
| NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | 0.0% | 6.3% |
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