As I mentioned in my post on Monday, I know it's too early to really be looking at this stuff, but like I said in my post last Friday after the first game, it's interesting to see how one game or a week of games affects a team's chances of making the playoffs. The following are tables showing each team's chance of winning their division and making the playoffs based on randomly determing the outcomes of the rest of the games this season.
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 14.7% | 26.3% | -10.3% | -11.2% |
| Miami Dolphins | 28.3% | 44.7% | +3.3% | +7.2% |
| New England Patriots | 29.0% | 45.5% | +4.0% | +8.0% |
| New York Jets | 28.1% | 43.3% | +3.1% | +5.8% |
The Patriots got the biggest bounce in week 1 because they won a divisional game. The Dolphins got a bigger increase than the Jets because they won a common (all teams in the AFC East will be playing the Brown) game against an AFC opponent whereas the Jets won against a common NFC opponent. Early in the season, playing games against divisional opponents have the biggest impact followed by common games followed by games against teams in the same conference.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 25.3% | 31.9% | +0.3% | -5.6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 24.9% | 32.7% | -0.1% | -4.8% |
| Cleveland Browns | 24.6% | 31.4% | -0.4% | -6.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25.3% | 31.7% | +0.3% | -5.8% |
The AFC North is an unique case since all of the teams lost in week one. Baltimore and Pittsburgh did the least damage to their chances of winning the division (actually gained a few percentage points due to the whole division losing) by losing in uncommon games (no other team in the division will play Denver nor Tennessee). Cincinnati's common game was against an NFC opponent, so their loss was not as bad as Cleveland's who lost to an AFC opponent. Interestingly although they are currently third most likely to win the division, the Bengals are most likely to make the playoffs since losing a non-conference game has the least affect on Wild Card tiebreakers between teams from different divisions.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 28.0% | 45.3% | +3.0% | +7.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 28.0% | 45.3% | +3.0% | +7.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 16.6% | 27.6% | -8.4% | -9.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 27.4% | 44.8% | +2.4% | +7.3% |
Houston and Indianapolis gained the same amount because both won in common games against AFC opponents. Tennessee gained a little less because their victory was in an uncommon game. The Texans and Colts didn't gain anything additional over the Titans when just looking at the Wild Card chances.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 30.8% | 46.1% | +5.8% | +8.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 31.5% | 46.2% | +6.5% | +8.7% |
| Oakland Raiders | 18.8% | 28.5% | -6.2% | -9.0% |
| San Diego Chargers | 18.9% | 28.7% | -6.1% | -8.8% |
The Chiefs gained more than the Broncos since they won a common game. The Raiders and Chargers both lost about the same amount of ground because both lost common games against AFC opponents.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 33.2% | 47.4% | +8.2% | +9.9% |
| New York Giants | 16.9% | 27.5% | -8.1% | -10.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 33.1% | 47.2% | +8.1% | +9.7% |
| Washington Redskins | 16.9% | 27.6% | -8.1% | -9.9% |
All of the teams in the NFC East played a divisional game in week one, and thus the winners and losers had similiar changes to their playoff percentages.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 31.4% | 44.9% | +6.4% | +7.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 32.5% | 46.7% | +7.5% | +9.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | 19.5% | 28.6% | -5.5% | -8.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16.6% | 27.3% | -8.4% | -10.2% |
Detroit defeated division rival Minnesota whereas Chicago defeated a non-conference opponent and that's why the Lions gained so much more than the Bears. Likewise, the Vikings lost more ground than the Packer since they lost the divisional game whereas Green Bay lost a uncommon game. It is interesting to note that the Bears didn't gain as much ground towards the Wild Card as other winners from the NFC since they beat an AFC team.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 19.0% | 28.7% | -6.0% | -8.8% |
| Carolina Panthers | 21.8% | 30.1% | -3.2% | -7.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 37.2% | 49.3% | +12.2% | +11.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22.1% | 31.7% | -2.9% | -5.8% |
New Orleans was the only week one winner from the NFC South, and in a divisional game, thus they were the only team to see their odds increase. Of the losers, Atlanta took the biggest drop as they were the team that lost to the Saints. Tampa Bay has the smallest decrease since they lost to an AFC team whereas Carolina lost a common game against an NFC opponent.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 14.8% | 27.0% | -10.2% | -10.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 27.8% | 45.0% | +2.8% | +7.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 28.3% | 45.0% | +3.3% | +7.5% |
| St. Louis Rams | 29.1% | 46.1% | +4.1% | +8.6% |
The Rams picked up the most via winning a divisional game. The Seahawks gained more than the 49ers in regards to winning the division since they won a common game. Both of those teams gained the same towards the Wild Card since they both beat teams from the NFC.
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