An eighth of the 2013 season is now over, and teams are already moving into better and worse positions when it comes to making the playoffs. I used my prediction program to randomly determine the outcome of remaining games (win/loss only - no ties) and summed up that data to determine the likelihood of each team making the playoffs at this point. On caveat to note is that for each simulation of the program, one team is chosen to win out while another loses out - at this point in the season, that behavior isn't useful but later on, it'll give an indiciation towards which teams are starting to fall out of contention (and by how much) and which ones are locking up a spot.
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 16.7% | 30.6% | +2.0% | +4.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 32.0% | 51.8% | +3.7% | +7.1% |
| New England Patriots | 34.4% | 53.9% | +5.5% | +8.4% |
| New York Jets | 16.8% | 30.9% | -11.3% | -12.4% |
Everyone but the Jets saw their playoff chances increase with wins this past weekend. New England's chance remain higher than Miami's since the Patriots have played a won a couple of divisional games while the Dolphins have played none. The Bills and Jets are pretty statistically even in their chances currently, but one should pull ahead after their game this weekend.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 32.5% | 39.9% | +7.3% | +8.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 33.6% | 40.4% | +8.7% | +7.8% |
| Cleveland Browns | 16.2% | 21.2% | -8.4% | -10.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 17.7% | 22.6% | -7.6% | -9.1% |
The Bengals got a bit more out of their win over the Steelers than Baltimore did in their win over Cleveland. Likewise, the Browns were hurt more than the Steelers in their loss. Three of the four have tough games at home this weekend (Texans @ Ravens, Packers @ Bengals, and Bears @ Steelers) while the Browns travel to Minneapolis to take on the 0-2 Vikings. We possibly could see another 0-4 weekend for the division.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 41.0% | 55.6% | +13.0% | +10.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 24.7% | 35.4% | -3.3% | -9.9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 14.1% | 19.7% | -2.5% | -7.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 20.2% | 33.2% | -7.2% | -11.7% |
The Texans have the highest division and playoff percentage in the AFC. They got a nice bounce this week from being the only AFC South team to win. The Titans took the biggest fall for losing to their divisional foes. The Jaguars need to turn things around fast: they currently have the lowest chance of winning thier division and making the playoffs percentage in the AFC.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 30.9% | 50.3% | +0.1% | +4.2% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 31.6% | 50.0% | +0.1% | +3.8% |
| Oakland Raiders | 18.8% | 32.6% | +0.0% | +4.2% |
| San Diego Chargers | 18.7% | 31.9% | -0.2% | +3.2% |
All the teams in the West were winners this past weekend, and as such, there wasn't much change in the winning the division percentages. Everyone's making the playoffs percentage increased also, although Kansas City and San Diego got a smaller bump since they beat NFC foes.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 33.4% | 43.8% | +0.2% | -3.6% |
| New York Giants | 16.7% | 24.3% | -0.2% | -3.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 33.4% | 43.7% | +0.3% | -3.5% |
| Washington Redskins | 16.5% | 23.1% | -0.3% | -4.5% |
Opposite of the AFC West, every team in the NFC East was a loser this past weekend. The winners from week one saw their division winning percentages increase slightly. Everyone's playoff making chance decrease although Washington's decreased by the most since they were the only team of the lot to lose to an NFC opponent.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 40.3% | 56.2% | +8.9% | +11.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 25.0% | 37.7% | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | 24.4% | 37.2% | +4.9% | +8.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.3% | 19.3% | -6.3% | -8.1% |
The Bears got the biggest bang out of their win since it came against a divisional foe. Having already lost two games to divisional opponents, the Vikings have the lowest percentage chance of winning their division of anyone in the NFL. Green Bay's percentages are slightly behind Detroit's since the Lions have played and won a divisional game.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23.4% | 38.2% | +4.4% | +9.4% |
| Carolina Panthers | 16.1% | 24.0% | -5.7% | -6.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 46.9% | 61.5% | +9.7% | +12.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13.6% | 23.0% | -8.5% | -8.6% |
Being in a division with two 0-2 teams and having defeated the other team is quite the advantage to the Saints as they boast the best chance of winning their division of any team in the NFL right now. With their win, Atlanta moved their making the playoffs percentage to slightly above where it was to start the season (everyone starts at 37.5%) but their win the division percentage is still below the starting spot (25.0%). The 0-2 Panthers and Bucs are in trouble, Carolina a little less so since they haven't lost a divisional game yet.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 19.7% | 36.5% | +4.9% | +9.6% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 18.9% | 36.1% | -8.8% | -8.9% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 38.4% | 57.4% | +10.1% | +12.3% |
| St. Louis Rams | 22.9% | 38.1% | -6.2% | -8.0% |
Seattle's win over San Francisco was a big deal and has given the Seahawks double the chances of winning one of this season's toughest divisions. The rest of the teams are still in good shape at 1-1 with the Niners in the worst shape for having lost a divisional game while winning an "uncommon" one (uncommon for the NFC West).
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