After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/06/2013 | 09/15/2013 | 09/06/2013 | 09/06/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Chris Weidman | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Anderson Silva | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Vitor Belfort | 3 | (2) | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | Ronaldo Souza | 4 | (3) | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Michael Bisping | 5 | (4) | 7 | 6 | 5 | |||||||
| 6. | Mark Munoz | 6 | (5) | 6 | 7 | 6 | |||||||
| 7. | Yushin Okami | 7 | (6) | 10 | (11) | 5 | 9 | ||||||
| 8. | Costa Philippou | 8 | (7) | 8 | (9) | 9 | 7 | ||||||
| 9. | Luke Rockhold | 9 | (8) | 9 | (10) | 8 | 8 | ||||||
| 10. | Hector Lombard | 5 | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||
| Tim Kennedy | T10 | (OC) | 10 | ||||||||||
| Chael Sonnen | 10 | (9) | |||||||||||
| Tim Boetsch | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Francis Carmont | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title shot, in my world, Vitor Belfort would get the first crack at Chris Weidman. Vitor has won four fights since he last challenged for the middleweight title (he lost a light heavyweight title fight in the middle of that run, but since he was a late sub fighting up a weight class, I don't hold it against him). Ronaldo "Jacare" Souze and Michael Bisping are the next highest ranked fighters coming off of a win, so they get to duke it out for the #1 contender position (interestingly, this exposes a gap in my rules for assigning the #1 contendership: two fights ago Bisping lost to Belfort, if they were both to win, "The Count" would be my #1 contender but wouldn't meet the requirements to get the next title shot). I'd also set up Mark Munoz to take on Costa Philippou. As for those coming off of a loss, I don't think we're ready to see Anderson Silva/Yushin Okami III, so I'll match up Luke Rockhold with Silva and have Tim Boetsch rematch with Okami. Knowing that Hector Lombard is dropping to welterweight, I'm leaving him out of my match ups.
Matches the UFC has Made
In a move I agree with (maybe I should add some rules around this: a certain number of title defenses allows for an automatic rematch), the UFC has given Silva a rematch with Weidman. Belfort is moving up to light heavyweight (likely for just this fight, but Vitor has said he won't fight at middleweight other than for the title) to take on Dan Henderson. Bisping will be taking on Munoz at UFC Fight Night 30 in England. Philippou will battle Francis Carmont this weekend as part of the UFC 165 main card. Rockhold and Boetsch are slated to fight at UFC 166 next month. Lombard will be making his welterweight debut on the same card going up against Nate Marquardt.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Currently not many of the top middleweights are without opponents. Jacare and Okami are the only two in the top ten, and they just fought. Tim Kennedy is set to take on Lyoto Machida (in The Dragon's middleweight debut). I think I'd most likely give Souza the winner of Philippou/Carmont on Saturday. As for Yushin, if Rich Franklin is still fighting, a rematch between those two could be good. Otherwise, might be worthwhile to give him an up-and-comer coming off of a win to see if they are for real. Derek Brunson may be the best candidate for that usage.
Whether or not Weidman retains against Silva in December will determine the future of the middleweight division. If he does, a lot more interesting title matchups become available. Chael Sonnen likely returns to middleweight and Machida likely stays (Lyoto says he won't fight Silva for the title). I could see Henderson potentially dropping down too, and Rashad Evans as well. Frankly any light heavy that could compete at middleweight that has a serious title chance should drop to avoid Jon Jones. But if "The Spider" reclaims his title, I think it's harder to convince those fighters to drop and stay at 185.
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