Yes, it's too early to think that the current playoff rankings actually mean anything. Regardless, I think it's still interesting to see who falls where after the first week when you take into account tie breakers.
As with last year, I put together the playoff picture by assuming all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. Thus the teams that won their week 1 game are considered to be 1-0-15. Is this the best way to do this? Maybe not, but I think it works better when considering division and conference records, strength of victory and schedule, and common games.
Tiebreakers play a big role in the seeding this week as there are 16 teams "tied" at the top and most divisions have at least two undefeated teams (the two exceptions are the NFC South with just one and the AFC North with none).
With that said, here's how things lie as of right now:
Starting off with the AFC East, three of the teams are undefeated: Miami, New England, and New York. The Patriots get the edge here by winning the only divisional game so far. The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker edge over the Jets for the second spot via conference record since New York played the NFC's Buccaneers. Thus, New York is currently third and Buffalo is last.
Moving onto the North where all of the teams are 0-1. The defending champion Ravens and the Steelers get the edge in the division for now since they played "uncommon" opponents in week one. Baltimore has the edge over Pittsburgh due to strength of schedule. As for the Browns and Bengals, Cincinnati gets the edge by virtue of losing to an NFC team (thus having a better conference record).
As for the South, Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee were all victorious in week one. The Titans unfortunately won in an "uncommon" game and are third for now as such. The tie between the Colts and Texans went down to the ninth tiebreak: net points in common games. Since Indianapolis won by 4 while Houston only won by 3, the Colts currently get the top spot.
And out West, the Chiefs and the Broncos were both victorious. Kansas City played in a common game while Denver did not, so last year's "worst" team is currently tops in the West. The tie between Oakland and San Diego for third comes down to net points in common games, and since the Chargers loss by less (3 versus 4), San Diego currently is third.
As for ranking the division leaders, we'll start with the easy one: the Ravens are #4 by having the worst record. As for the tie between the Colts, Chiefs, and Patriots, Indianapolis currently has the strongest strength of schedule and has the #1 spot. New England then edges Kansas City for #2 since they played and won a common game.
The fun continues with the Wild Card spots. Taking the #2 from each division but the winless North, Miami drops out of picture versus Denver and Houston by having played an uncommon game. The Texans then trump the Broncos for the first wild card spot via strength of schedule. Then when we bring Tennessee into the mix to compete with Denver and Miami for the #6, the Titans take it by strength of schedule. So the AFC South starts off the year with both Wild Card spots.
Moving over to the NFC, we'll start off in the East. Dallas and Philadelphia both won against division rivals. The Cowboys have the edge for the top spot via strength of schedule. As for third, New York has the spot over Washington via the "net points in common games" tiebreakers: the Giants only lost by 5 while the Redskins lost by 6.
In the North, the Lions have the edge over the Bears for first since they played and won a divisional game. By the same tiebreaker, the Packers are in third over the Vikings since Minnesota lost that divisional game.
The South is the easiest division for declaring the top team as only New Orleans won their week one game. Atlanta is currently last being the team that gave the Saints their win. The tie between Carolina and Tampa Bay for second is broken by conference record: the Buccaneers have the lead because they lost to a team from the AFC.
As for the West, the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks all won, but St. Louis gets the top spot since they beat their division rivals (the Cardinals). Seattle then edges out San Francisco for the second spot since they played and won in a common game.
Moving on to doling out the top four seeds, St. Louis gets the top spot since they currently have the strongest strength of schedule. Likewise Detroit gets the #2 for having the second strongest of the bunch. The tie between Dallas and New Orleans comes down to combined point ranking with the NFC: the Cowboys are 1st for points scored and 12th for points allowed while the Saints are 12th for points scored and 3rd for points allowed. Dallas's combined ranking of 13 beats New Orleans' 15, and so the 'Boys are the #3.
The first Wild Card spot is up for grabs between the Bears, Eagles, and Seahawks. Chicago drops out since they played a non-conference game. Seattle has the stronger strength of schedule and thus is the #5. The Bears still drop out of the mix for #6 for the same reason once the 49ers are added to the mix. San Francisco also beats out Philadelphia via strength of schedule. So like in the AFC, both of the NFC Wild Card spots are currently going to the same division.
Week Two features five games between undefeated teams. Of those, three are between divisional rivals: Thursday Night's game between the Jets and Patriots, the Titans at the Texans, and Sunday Night's game with the 49ers visiting the Seahawks. And in good news for the AFC North, all four teams are taking part in divisional match ups, so I definitely won't have to talk about which 0-2 team has the #4 seed in the AFC next week.
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