Two weeks down, and the number of undefeated teams in the NFL has been cut in half. In each conference, three of the four division leaders are undefeated. The remaining two undefeated teams are on the AFC side. What follows is the current playoff seeding based on where things stand today while considering all unplayed games to be 0-0 ties.
Starting off with the AFC, the East is one of the two divisions with two 2-0 teams: New England and Miami. The Patriots have played and won two divisional games while the Dolphins have played none, so New England has the tie breaker based on division record. The Bills and Jets are tied at 1-1. This tie goes all the way down to the conference point ranking. Buffalo is 5th in the AFC for points scored and 10th in regards to points scored. New York is 12th and 2nd. The Jets combined ranking is 14 which is lower than the Bills' 15, so New York is currently third.
Moving onto the North where Baltimore and Cincinnati are tied at 1-1. The Ravens get the edge here because their loss was in an "uncommon" game (no one else in the division has to play the Broncos), so their common games record of 1-0-x is better than the Bengals of 1-1-x. Similar story for the tie between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The Steelers lost in week one to Tennessee, but no one else in the division plays the Titans. So Pittsburgh is 0-1-x in common games while Cleveland is 0-2-x. So the Steelers are third and the Browns are fourth.
Down South, the Texans have the top spot by having the best record. Both the Colts and Titans are 1-1, but since Tennessee is the only one of the two to have played a divisional game and lost, they're down on the division record tiebreak 0-1-5 to 0-0-6. So Indianapolis is second, Tennessee is third, and Jacksonville at 0-2 is fourth.
Kansas City and Denver both boast perfect records in the West. Both of the Chiefs games have been common games while only one of the Broncos has been. So Kansas City has a slight edge in common games (2-0-x vs 1-0-x) and currently gets the top spot. As for third, Oakland edges out San Diego by having a better conference record (the Chargers win came against an NFC opponent.
Moving onto ranking the divisional leaders, Baltimore is the only non 2-0 team, so they're #4. Looking at Houston, Kansas City, and New England; the Chiefs fall out of the tie since they have the worst conference record (since one of their wins came against an NFC opponent). The Texans then edge out the Patriots for the top spot by currently having the stronger strength of schedule.
As for the Wild Card, the two spots go to Miami and Denver since they are the only remaining 2-0 teams. Both of the Dolphins wins have come against AFC teams while only one of the Broncos' wins did, so Miami takes the #5 by virtue of having the better conference record. Here's the AFC playoff picture:
As for the NFC, the East had a bad week as every team lost. The 1-1 Cowboys have the tiebreaker edge over the 1-1 Eagles via strength of schedule. As for third, New York has the edge over Washington since one of the Giants' losses came to an AFC opponent.
Up North, the Bears lead the division as the only 2-0 team. Detroit leads Green Bay for second since the Lions' victory came against a divisional opponent. The Vikings are last by record.
Similar story in the South, the Saints are tops in the division by record. Atlanta is second also by record. The 0-2 Panthers are ahead of the 0-2 Buccaneers for third since Tampa Bay has lost a divisional game while Carolina has not.
Out West, Seattle is #1 by record. Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis are all 1-1. The Rams won a divisional game while the others lost one, so they get the second spot. The 49ers then edge out the Cardinals for third by strength of schedule.
Ranking the divisional leaders, Dallas is fourth since they're the non 2-0 team. In the tie between Chicago, New Orleans, and Seattle, the Bears drop out since one of their wins came against an AFC team. The Saints then edge out the Seahawks via strength of schedule.
Moving onto the Wild Card teams, each division has a 1-1 team in second, so it's quite the battle. The Eagles come out on top against the Falcons, Lions, and Rams by having a better conference record (1-0-x: their loss was against an AFC team). Detroit falls out of the battle for the spot by having the weakest strength of victory (they beat an 0-2 team while the others beat 1-1 teams). Atlanta then gets the spot over St. Louis since they beat them (this past weekend). Here's the NFC playoff picture:
Looking ahead to next week (assuming non of the games end in a tie), all of the teams except the Jets and 7 of the 8 0-2 teams (somehow Carolina has a shot to be a Wild Card at 1-2) could be in the playoff picture when the weekend is done. The Texans and Saints are guaranteed to still be leading their divisions regardless of outcome. Likewise, New England and Seattle are locked in to being at least a Wild Card team after next week. 1% of the time, the #6 seed selection comes down to conference point rankings. Assuming each game is a 50/50 proposition, here's the percent chances of each team being in the picture:
| Division | Team | Division % | Playoff % | Tie #6 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC South | Houston Texans | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| NFC West | Seattle Seahawks | 93.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| AFC East | New England Patriots | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | 75.0% | 90.6% | 0.0% |
| AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | 68.0% | 68.6% | 0.0% |
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 56.3% | 61.3% | 0.0% |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | 43.8% | 68.8% | 0.0% |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 32.0% | 45.7% | 0.6% |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 25.0% | 96.8% | 0.6% |
| AFC East | Miami Dolphins | 25.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| AFC West | Oakland Raiders | 25.0% | 45.7% | 0.1% |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | 25.0% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| NFC West | St. Louis Rams | 6.3% | 49.2% | 0.0% |
| NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | 0.0% | 47.7% | 0.0% |
| NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.5% |
| AFC West | San Diego Chargers | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.3% |
| AFC South | Tennessee Titans | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.1% |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 0.0% | 12.5% | 0.5% |
| AFC South | Indianapolis Colts | 0.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| NFC North | Green Bay Packers | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| AFC East | Buffalo Bills | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| NFC South | Carolina Panthers | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
It'll be fun to see which teams rise above their odds and force their way into the picture next week.
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