There was a lot more activity in the playoff picture this week than last: 5 divisional leads changed hands with 3 new teams in the picture overall. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.
Starting off in the AFC, there's a big bottleneck in the East with all four teams posting a 3-3 record. The Jets currently get the nod based on their 2-0 divisional record. Moving onto the North, the Ravens maintain the top spot and have a two game lead on the Bengals (as well as a head-to-head victory). In the South, the Texans lost their perfect record but control a 2.5 game lead over the Colts. And in the West, with their record breaking Monday Night Football comeback, the Broncos took over control based on their head-to-head victory over the Chargers.
As for the wild card, five teams are tied at 3-3 (three of those from the East). The Patriots get divisional tiebreaker in the East, and go up against the Bengals and Chargers for the first spot. The Bengals get eliminated due to a poorer conference record before the Patriots claim the #5 spot due to a better record in common games than the Chargers. The Dolphins then best the Bills for the second divisional tiebreaker in the East, but then the Chargers best both the Dolphins and Bengals in regards to conference record and grab hold of the #6 seed.
As for the division leaders, the Texans and Ravens are tied at the top while the Broncos and Jets are tied for third. The Texans take the top spot based on a better conference record. The Broncos jump the Jets based on common games making the AFC playoff picture look as such:
Moving onto the NFC, the Giants have overtaken the Eagles for the top spot in the East. The Vikings loss moves the Bears atop the North by a half game. The 6-0 Falcons have a stranglehold on the South with a commanding 3.5 game lead over the Buccaneers. And out West, there's a three way tie between the Cardinals, 49ers, and Seahawks. Arizona gets the nod based on head-to-head record.
The wild card spots come down to the 49ers, Seahawks, and Vikings. The 49ers currently have the divisional tiebreaker in the West based on divisional record. The Vikings have beaten San Francisco which grants them the #5 seed. Thus the 49ers currently control the #6.
Atlanta and Chicago have the top two positions based on record. Arizona and New York are tied for third, and the Cardinals get the tiebreaker edge based on common games. So here's the NFC playoff picture:
The Texans, Ravens, and Broncos are all locked into being part of the week seven AFC playoff picture. Other than those teams, all the teams from the East, the Bengals, and the Chargers have a chance to have a spot. In the NFC, the Falcons and Bears are a lock. The other four spots are up for grabs between 8 teams (New York, Washington, Green Bay, Minnesota, and all four teams from the West).
The games in week 7 with the biggest playoff picture impact are:
- New York Jets at New England Patriots
- Washington Redskins at New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
- Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
- Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
Winner is tops in the East. Loser falls outside of the playoff picture. This is the only game this week where a current playoff team will definitely get knocked out of the picture.
Winner will be tops in the NFC East. With quite a bit of help, the Giants could be the #6 seed with a loss.
Winner is in. Loser is out. With a win, the Niners retake the divisional lead regardless of what Arizona does. The Seahawks get the divisional lead with a win and a Cardinal loss.
Arizona maintains their spot with a win only. Minnesota could stick around as a wild card with a loss, but it's unlikely. Both need help to have the divisional lead with a win (Arizona needs a San Francisco loss; the Vikings need the Bears to lose).
Winner takes a one game lead plus the head-to-head advantage for the AFC #1 seed.
Rams take the #6 seed with a win. Packers can take that same spot with a win and some help.
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