Chris's World: UFC

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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Middleweights

Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.

My previous post on the UFC Middleweights can be found here.

Here's what happened in the division in the past eight weeks:

Lyoto Machida defeated Mark Munoz at UFC Fight Night 30.
Francis Carmont defeated Costa Philippou at UFC 165.
Tim Kennedy defeated Rafael Natal at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Tim Boetsch defeated C.B. Dollaway at UFC 166.

Brad Scott defeated Michael Kuiper at UFC Fight Night 30.
Luke Barnatt defeated Andrew Craig at UFC Fight Night 30.
Nicholas Musoke defeated Alessio Sakara at UFC Fight Night 30.
Derek Brunson defeated Brian Houston at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Lorenz Larkin defeated Chris Camozzi at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Yoel Romero defeated Ronny Markes at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Omari Akhmedov defeated Thiago Perpetuo at UFC Fight Night 32.
Cezar Ferreira defeated Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 32.

The combined rankings for the division are now as such:

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		11/11/2013			11/10/2013			10/28/2013			10/27/2013
1.	Chris Weidman		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Anderson Silva		2	(1)		2			2			2
3.	Vitor Belfort		3	(2)		3			3			3
4.	Ronaldo Souza		4	(3)		5			4			4
5.	Michael Bisping		5	(4)		6			5	(6)		5
6.	Lyoto Machida		6	(5)		4			6	(7)		6
7.	Luke Rockhold		7	(6)		8	(10)		8	(9)		8
8.	Mark Munoz		8	(7)		10	(12)		7	(8)		7
9.	Francis Carmont		9	(8)		7			T9	(OC)
10.	Tim Kennedy					9	(11)		T9	(OC)		9	(10)
	Costa Philippou		10	(9)					T9	(OC)
	Tim Boetsch								T9	(OC)

It's been a busy eight weeks for the middleweight division. The top five are unchanged from the last report. Of the top five, only Belfort has fought, and his fight was at light heavyweight against Dan Henderson. He won, and Dana White has said that Vitor gets the next title shot (unless something "weird" happens involving Weidman/Silva II). Machida joined the division and knocked Munoz down a couple spots by beating him in his debut. Okami was cut and thus no longer qualifies for the list. Carmont and Philippou flipped spots (more or less) after their fight.

My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, the next shot at Chris Weidman would go to Vitor Belfort. Belfort has had three wins at middleweight since his last middleweight title fight and has earned another shot. As for the #1 contender, I'd pit Ronaldo Souza against Michael Bisping to see who gets the next title shot. I'd make Francis Carmont put his 11 fight winning steak on the line against Lyoto Machida in a fight that would likely determine who'd get the next crack at earning a title shot. And for the final guy coming off of a win in the top ten, I'd give Tim Kennedy a fight against Tim Boetsch and let one of the Tims work his way towards the top. As for the fighters coming off of a loss, I'd give the former UFC champion Anderson Silva a crack at the last Strikeforce middleweight champion (Luke Rockhold). Mark Munoz and Costa Philippou would be given the opportunities to redeem themselves against each other.

Matches the UFC has Made

With a bunch of recent activity, there's not a lot set up for the middleweight top ten. Silva is getting a chance to regain his title against Weidman at UFC 168 at the end of December. Machida will be welcoming Gegard Mousasi to the middleweight division at a Fight Night card in February.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

I could accept a case for holding Belfort for the next title shot, but I'd rather he fight a top contender in the division to earn it instead, so I'd pit Vitor against Souza for the #1 contendership. Bisping would then instead fight Carmont. Instead of the Spider, Rockhold would take on Munoz. And my match between Kennedy and Boetsch would still be on.

The case of Anderson Silva exposes a potential weakness in my rules. Should a champion who defended his belt 10 times, won a non-title match at his championship weight, and 3 fights in the division above really have to win twice to get back in the title picture? Feels like I should adopt a rule that allows for immediate rematches (although I usually don't like them) or one win to get back in for champions that kept the title for long enough (determined by fights and not time).

If Weidman can repeat his success in their first match up, the middleweight division could become quite interesting over the next few years as there will be a number of potentially interesting title fights.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Light Heavyweights

My previous post on the UFC Light Heavyweights can be found here.

Here's what happened in the division in the past eight weeks:

Jon Jones defeated Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 to retain the title.
Fabio Maldonado defeated Joey Beltran at UFC Fight Night 29.
Thiago Silva defeated Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 29.
Jimi Manuwa defeated Ryan Jimmo at UFC Fight Night 30.

The combined rankings for the division are now as such:

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix		Sherdog		MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/28/2013			11/03/2013		10/28/2013		10/27/2013
1.	Jon Jones		1	(0)		1		1		1
2.	Alexander Gustafsson		2	(1)		4		2		2
3.	Phil Davis		4	(3)		2		4		5
4.	Rashad Evans		5	(4)		3		3		6
5.	Glover Teixeira		3	(2)		7		6		3
6.	Antonio Nogueira		6	(5)		5		7		4
7.	Dan Henderson		7	(6)		8		5		7
8.	Chael Sonnen		8	(7)		6		10		8
9.	Gegard Mousasi		9	(8)		9		9		10
10.	Mauricio Rua		10	(9)		10				9
	Ryan Bader							8

With most of the fighters in the top ten not active in the past eight weeks (which isn't surprising and is a sign that I probably should do this every eight weeks for each division), there's not a lot of changes in the light heavyweight top ten. Gustafsson moved up a spot after a very strong showing in his title fight loss to Jones. Machida has fallen out of the top ten with his move down to middleweight. Otherwise everything else is pretty much the same.

My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title shot, up next for Jon Jones would be Phil Davis. Mr. Wonderful has rattled off three wins since his loss to Evans in a title eliminator match and he's due to get his shot at the title. For the #1 contender's match, I'd set up Glover Teixeira to thrown down with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Only three other fighters in the top ten are coming off of wins: Rashad Evans, Chael Sonnen, and Gegard Mousasi. Since Evans and Sonnen are the higher ranked of the three, I'd match those two up. As for Mousasi, we'll have to look a bit deeper in the division. I think the best two options are Thiago Silva and Jimi Manuwa. With Silva missing weight in his last fight, I wouldn't want to reward him with Mousasi, so I'd pair up Manuwa and Mousasi instead. As for the fighters coming off of losses, I'd match up Alexander Gustafsson with Dan Henderson to get one of the two back into the title picture. Then I'd let Mauricio Rua take on Ryan Bader to see which one of the two deserves to be at the bottom of the top ten.

Matches the UFC has Made

Although not officially signed nor slated for an event, the UFC has stated that Teixeira gets the next crack at Jones. Gustafsson was set up to take on Nogueira in March with a title rematch for Alex on the line, but Little Nog has had to withdraw from the fight and has been replaced by Manuwa (who will be fighting in his home country). Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen are set to lock horns at UFC 167 the weekend after next. Henderson is moving down to middleweight to take on Vitor Belfort in the main event of UFC Fight Night 32 this Saturday. Mousasi will also be dropping down to middleweight, and he will take on Lyoto Machida in the main event of a fight night in Brazil in February. Rua and Bader will both be fighting at UFC Fight Night 33 in Australia but not against each other. Shogun will be taking on James Te Huna while Bader will be taking on the aging Anthony Perosh. Both Te Huna and Perosh are from Australia.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

Only two fighters from the top ten are without opponents: Davis and Nogueira. Mr. Wonderful defeated Little Nog in early 2011, and with Nogueira out through at least March, there's no point in holding up Davis waiting for this match up. Rumors are that Phil will be the one to welcome Daniel Cormier to the light heavyweight division, and I can accept that match up although I'd expect a stinker of a fight.

A number of the top guys from the division are moving down to middleweight likely because the Anderson Silva era might be over and Chris Weidman seems beatable. With the close fight between Jones and Gustafsson, it'll be interesting to see if some of the contenders make their way back up thinking that Bones' weakness may have been exposed. With DC coming down (and Dos Santos ought to be trying to figure out if there's any way he could make 205) and a Gus rematch on the horizon, 2014 should be an interesting year for the division.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Heavyweights

My previous post on the UFC Heavyweights can be found here.

Here's what's happened in the division in the past eight weeks:

Cain Velasquez defeated Junior Dos Santos at UFC 166 to retain the title
Daniel Cormier defeated Roy Nelson at UFC 166
Gabriel Gonzaga defeated Shawn Jordan at UFC 166
Brendan Schaub defeated Matt Mitrione at UFC 165
Daniel Omielanczuk defeated Nandor Guelmino at UFC 165

The combined rankings for the division are now as such:

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix		Sherdog		MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/28/2013			10/27/2013		10/28/2013		10/27/2013
1.	Cain Velasquez		1	(0)		1		1		1
2.	Junior Dos Santos		2	(1)		2		2		2
3.	Daniel Cormier		3	(2)		3		4		3
4.	Fabricio Werdum		4	(3)		5		3		4
5.	Antonio Silva		5	(4)		4		5		5
6.	Josh Barnett		7	(6)		7		6		6
7.	Travis Browne		6	(5)		6		9		7
8.	Frank Mir		9	(8)		10		7		8
9.	Alistair Overeem		8	(7)		8				9
10.	Mark Hunt					9				10
	Antonio Nogueira							8
	Stipe Miocic		10	(9)
	Gabriel Gonzaga							10

The only change in rankings in the past eight weeks was a swapping of positions by Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem with the main reason for the swap being that the Sherdog rankings were stale (nearly a month old) last go round and didn't include Overeem's loss to Browne.

The division has a bit of a problem on it's hand as Dos Santos has now lost twice convincingly to Cain and is unlikely to get another shot although he is the consensus #2 in the division. As such, Junior is likely to play the role of spoiler for the next couple years knocking guys off track on their way to title shots. Going to be interesting to see how the UFC chooses to use him. Unfortunately, he's likely too large to attempt a drop to light heavyweight.

My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, I'd make the same match that I would eight weeks ago: Cain Velasquez defending against Daniel Cormier (as with eight weeks ago, I know that they are teammates that have said that they won't fight and that Cormier is dropping down to light heavyweight - regardless, this is the title fight to make based on my rules). Fabricio Werdum would be matched against Josh Barnett to determine the #1 contendership. The only other fighter in the top ten coming off of a win is Travis Browne. I'd set him up against Stipe Miocic who's just outside the top ten. As for those coming off of losses, I'd match up the two most recent title challengers to get one back on the win column: Junior Dos Santos and Antonio Silva. Neither is likely to get another crack at Cain soon (Silva has a worse argument than Dos Santos to ever get another rematch) so pairing them up prevents either from doing an actual contender harm. I'd set up Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem to do battle (mostly to see which one is beyond washed up). As for Mark Hunt, I'd match him against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Looking just outside the top ten, Gabriel Gonzaga has heated up as of late. With no one available above him in the rankings, I'd give him a chance to avenge his loss to Brendan Schaub.

Matches the UFC has Made

Velasquez versus Werdum has been stated to be the next title fight at heavyweight, but it hasn't been officially set up yet. Big Foot is set to go to battle against Hunt at UFC Fight Night in Australia in December. Browne is going to lock horns with Barnett at the last PPV of the year (UFC 168). Mir and Overeem will face off at the annual Super Bowl PPV in February.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

From the combined top ten, only Dos Santos and Cormier lack opponents. If I accept the fact that Daniel is moving down, that just leaves Junior. Based on the beating he took just a week and a half ago, I think it's fair to leave him on the sidelines for now and see how the Silva/Hunt and Browne/Barnett fights in December turn out. If Big Foot loses, I'd say give him to Dos Santos otherwise Junior takes on the Browne/Barnett loser.

The lack of depth in the heavyweight division is going to hurt in the future, but the division will likely be okay for title challengers in 2014 if they just need two: Werdum and then the winner of Browne/Barnett. It will be interesting to see if the UFC chooses to wait for the next title fight until Memorial Day weekend since this last title fight was earlier in the year than usual.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Flyweights

After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.

After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/21/2013			10/20/2013			10/21/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Demetrious Johnson		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Joseph Benavidez		2	(1)		2			2			2
3.	John Dodson		3	(2)		3	(5)		3			3
4.	Ian McCall		4	(3)		4	(6)		4			4
5.	John Moraga		5	(4)		5	(7)		8			5
6.	Jussier da Silva		7	(6)		6	(10)		5			8	(9)
7.	John Lineker		6	(5)		9	(13)		6			7
8.	Timothy Elliott		8	(7)		10	(14)		T9	(OC)		6
9.	Chris Cariaso		9	(8)		8	(12)		T9	(OC)
10.	Darrell Montague								7			9	(10)
	Darren Uyenoyama					7	(11)
	Louis Gaudinot		10	(9)

Matches I'd Make

Joseph Benavidez has won three in a row since his split decision loss to Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson in the first ever UFC flyweight championship fight, and it's finally time for the rematch. John Dodson and Ian McCall are both coming off of wins, however not enough wins for either to qualify to take part in the #1 contenders match. So I'd match the two up to get one in position for fight later for a shot at fighting for the belt. The #1 contenders match instead would be John Lineker versus Timonthy Elliott. Seems sad that the highest ranked guys who qualify are 7th and 8th. Chris Cariso is also coming off of a win, but without another guy in the top ten (or event the other two listed) in the same position, I'd match him with Ali Bagautinov. As for those coming off of losses, John Morega (the most recent title challenger) will take on Jussier da Silva while Darrell Montague will match up with Darren Uyenoyama.

Matches the UFC has Made

Johnson/Benavidez will be taking place at the Ultimate Fighter finale at the end of November. Dodson just fought this past Saturday defeating Montague. McCall will be welcoming Scott Jorgensen to the flyweight division at the UFC on FOX card in December. Lineker will be taking on Phil Harris this weekend as part of the UFC Fight Night. Elliott will be taking on Bagautinov at UFC 167.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

I'll keep my Moraga/da Silva and Montague/Uyenoyama fights intact. The only other fight-less guys from the top ten are Dodson and Cariso. I have no reason to believe we need to see that fight. I'd lean towards giving Dodson the winner of McCall/Jorgensen and Cariso the winner of Moraga/da Silva, but that doesn't make an obvious #1 contender for the championship.

Mighty Mouse has wins over the rest of the top five, and if he gets past Benevidez again, title match making for flyweight is going to get tough. Johnson has said that he'd like to fight again for the bantomweight title, but with as easily as Cruz handled him, I don't know that we need to see that. The UFC needs to get some more flyweight talent soon.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Bantamweights

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC		Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/11/2013		10/13/2013			09/23/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Renan Barao		1		1			1			1
2.	Urijah Faber		2		2			2			2
3.	Michael McDonald		3		3	(5)		3			3
4.	Raphael Assuncao		4		4	(6)		5			4	(5)
5.	Eddie Wineland		5		5	(9)		4			5	(6)
6.	Brad Pickett		6					6			6	(7)
7.	Takeya Mizugaki		10		6	(11)		T9	(OC)		8	(9)
8.	TJ Dillashaw		8					8	(9)		7	(8)
9.	Scott Jorgensen		7					7
10.	Wilson Reis				7	(12)
	Bryan Caraway				8	(13)
	Iuri Alcantara				10	(17)		T9	(OC)
	Mike Easton		9
	George Roop				9	(14)
	Erik Perez										9	(10)

A little bit of a precursor first. Dominick Cruz is the UFC Bantamweight Champion but hasn't fought in over two years. Only the UFC still ranks him (as #0 as the rules require). I have left him off of the UFC's list since that's the only one he's on. Since it looks like he's on his way back early next year, the next title shot will be considered to be against him.

Matches I'd Make

Obviously the next title shot has to go to the interim champion: Renan Barao. Barao has done quite the good job defending the interim belt defeating three of the top five fighters. The #1 contenders match will be set up between Urijah Faber (hard to believe that he's already won enough to be back in the picture) and Raphael Assuncao. Then I'd match up Michael McDonald and Takeya Mizugaki and get one of the two back into the title picture. I'd also match up Wilson Reis with Bryan Caraway and hopefully get one of those two into more of the top tens. As for those coming off of losses, Eddie Wineland and Brad Pickett just recently fought, so I'd match up Wineland with TJ Dillashaw and Pickett with Scott Jorgensen and get two of those guys back on track. Just outside the top ten, I'd match up Iuri Alcantara and Mike Easton.

Matches the UFC has Made

Cruz vs Barao has been mentioned but nothing as officially been set up yet. Faber is set to take on McDonald in Sacramento in December. Mizugaki will be welcoming Nam Phan to bantonweight at Fight Night 33. Jorgensen is moving down to flyweight and will be taking on Ian McCall on the December Sacramento card.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

Since it'll still be a bit before Cruz fights and since Assuncao just fought, I'd save him for the winner of Faber/McDonald. I'd keep my Reis/Caraway and Wineland/Dillashaw matchups. As for Pickett, I'd give him Alcantara.

The return of Cruz will be long overdue for the division. Thankfully Barao has kept busy as champion - perhaps too busy as he's beaten many of the top guys. It'll be interesting to see if new challengers emerge or if we see a number of rematches for the title in the upcoming years.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Featherweights

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		09/23/2013			10/06/2013			09/23/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Jose Aldo		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Chad Mendes		2	(1)		3			2			2
3.	Ricardo Lamas		3	(2)		5	(7)		3			3
4.	Frankie Edgar		4	(3)		2			5			5	(6)
5.	Cub Swanson		5	(4)		4			4			4
6.	Nik Lentz		9	(8)		6	(8)		7	(8)		8	(9)
7.	Chan Sung Jung		6	(5)					8	(9)		6	(7)
8.	Dustin Poirier		7	(6)					9	(10)		7	(8)
9.	Darren Elkins					8	(10)		6	(7)		9	(10)
10.	Dennis Siver		8	(7)		9	(11)		T10	(OC)
	Clay Guida		10	(9)		7	(9)		T10	(OC)
	Manny Gamburyan					10	(13)
	Hatsu Hioki								T10	(OC)
	Erik Koch								T10	(OC)

Matches I'd Make

Starting off, as always, with the title shot, I'd give the next crack at Jose Aldo to Chad Mendes. Yes, the first fight between the two had a donimating finish, but Mendes has won four in a row since, so let's do it again somewhere other than Brazil. I expect the outcome to be the same, but how many featherweights do we really want "Money" to knock out of the way before he gets another crack? If Mendes loses, hopefully he can move down (maybe up?) and start a new. As for the number one contendership, I'd pit Ricardo Lamas against Cub Swanson. Similar story to the previous, Lamas submitted Swanson about two years ago, but Cub has five straight wins since. "The Bully" feels he's already done enough to get a title shot, but the UFC brass doesn't seem convinced and a second triumph over Swanson should clarify his case. As for the other fighters coming off of a win in the top ten, I'd match Frankie Edgar with Nik Lentz and Dustin Poirier with Darren Elkins expecting that the winners of those two matches would meet to decide the next #1 contender. There's just two fighters in the top ten coming off of a loss: Chan Sung Jung and Dennis Siver. I'd hook them up to get one of the two back on the winning track. Just outside the top ten sits Manny Gamburyan whose currently on a two fight win streak (following a three fight losing streak that started with a loss to Aldo in the WEC). I'd give Gamburyan rising prospect Conor McGregor and figure that the winner would move into the top ten. Also just outside the top ten (but coming off of losses) are Clay Guida, Hatsu Hioki, and Erik Koch. Guida and Hioki have recently (and boringly) fought, so Koch would get Guide while Hioki would take on Robbie Peralta.

Matches the UFC has Made

The featherweight division almost seems like it's "on hold" in the UFC as only three of the top ten fighters have matches. Mendes will be squaring off with Lentz in Sacramento (Money's hometown) in December while Poirier is set to battle with Diego Brandao at the end of the year pay-per-view (UFC 168).

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

With Mendes occupied, the title shot now goes to Lamas. The setup Mendes/Lentz fight makes the most sense for the #1 contendership. I'd then match up Swanson with Edgar and Gamburyan with Elkins to fill in the gaps for the "winner's" bouts. All of my bouts for fighters coming off of losses still work, so I'll stick with them.

The featherweight title picture still feels quite backed up due to "superfights" and injuries to the champion. Aldo has only fought three times in the past two years, and the division really needs a bit more out of him to get things settled.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Lightweights

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		09/23/2013			09/29/2013			09/23/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Anthony Pettis		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Benson Henderson		2	(1)		2			2			2
3.	Gilbert Melendez		3	(2)		3			3			3
4.	TJ Grant		4	(3)		4			4			4
5.	Josh Thomson		5	(4)		7	(8)		6	(7)		6	(8)
6.	Gray Maynard		6	(5)		9	(11)		5	(6)		5	(6)
7.	Khabib Nurmagomedov		8	(7)		6	(7)		8	(9)		7	(9)
8.	Rafael dos Anjos		7	(6)		5	(6)		9	(10)
9.	Nate Diaz		9	(8)					7	(8)		8	(10)
10.	Diego Sanchez					8	(10)
	Jim Miller		10	(9)		10	(12)		T10	(OC)
	Donald Cerrone								T10	(OC)
	Pat Healy								T10	(OC)
	Jorge Masvidal								T10	(OC)

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, the next shot goes to T.J. Grant (yes, I know he's hurt, but the UFC could have waited another month for him to be ready). Josh Thompson and Khabib Nurmagomedov are the highest rated fighters after Grant coming off of wins, so I'd pair them together to fight for the next shot. Rafael dos Anjos and Diego Sanchez are the only other fighters in the top ten coming off of wins, so I'd have them face off. As for those coming off of losses, I'd pit Benson Henderson against Gray Maynard to get one of them a win, and I'd match Gilbert Melendez against Nate Diaz (yes, I know that they wouldn't agree to fight each other). Looking beyond the top ten, I'd pit Jim Miller against Donald Cerrone to try to get one of those two back on track. I'd give Pat Healy a fight against Evan Dunham and Jorge Masvidal would be set up against Gleison Tibau.

Matches the UFC has Made

Since Grant is out with an injury, the UFC has set up Thompson with Pettis for the FOX card in December. Melendez will be taking on Sanchez at UFC 167 next month (an unusual loser versus winner match although both decisions were arguable). Maynard has been set up to take on Diaz during the Ultimate Fighter Finale, but Nate has tweeted (jokingly?) that he can't make the fight due to a high school reunion (in November?). Cerrone has been matched up with Dunham for UFC 167, and Masvidal will be taking on Rustam Khabilov at Fight Night 31.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

The UFC has only left me three guys in the top ten coming off of wins: Grant, Nurmagomedov, and dos Anjos. As they are higher ranked, Grant and Nurmagomedov get to face off for the #1 contender slot (I feel T.J. needs to re-earn the title shot after dropping out of two title fights). Though not the usual way of going, I'd pit dos Anjos against Henderson. Miller and Healy put on a barnburner in April, but it's too soon for a rematch. Looking a bit further down the roster, I'd set up Matt Wiman against Healy and Takanori Gomi against Miller.

Lightweight is one of the deeper divisions in the UFC and the logjam at the top is finally starting to get sorted out now that the division seems to be out of "rematch hell". Hopefully the title will continue to be defeated roughly every four months making this division one of the UFC's most active. It'll be interesting to see how long Pettis can hold onto the belt and if we'll see the return of any fighters that dropped to featherweight (Guida and Edgar come to mind although I wouldn't support either) or if Jose Aldo will eventually make the move upwards.