After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/23/2013 | 10/06/2013 | 09/23/2013 | 09/24/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Jose Aldo | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Chad Mendes | 2 | (1) | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Ricardo Lamas | 3 | (2) | 5 | (7) | 3 | 3 | ||||||
| 4. | Frankie Edgar | 4 | (3) | 2 | 5 | 5 | (6) | ||||||
| 5. | Cub Swanson | 5 | (4) | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 6. | Nik Lentz | 9 | (8) | 6 | (8) | 7 | (8) | 8 | (9) | ||||
| 7. | Chan Sung Jung | 6 | (5) | 8 | (9) | 6 | (7) | ||||||
| 8. | Dustin Poirier | 7 | (6) | 9 | (10) | 7 | (8) | ||||||
| 9. | Darren Elkins | 8 | (10) | 6 | (7) | 9 | (10) | ||||||
| 10. | Dennis Siver | 8 | (7) | 9 | (11) | T10 | (OC) | ||||||
| Clay Guida | 10 | (9) | 7 | (9) | T10 | (OC) | |||||||
| Manny Gamburyan | 10 | (13) | |||||||||||
| Hatsu Hioki | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Erik Koch | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
Starting off, as always, with the title shot, I'd give the next crack at Jose Aldo to Chad Mendes. Yes, the first fight between the two had a donimating finish, but Mendes has won four in a row since, so let's do it again somewhere other than Brazil. I expect the outcome to be the same, but how many featherweights do we really want "Money" to knock out of the way before he gets another crack? If Mendes loses, hopefully he can move down (maybe up?) and start a new. As for the number one contendership, I'd pit Ricardo Lamas against Cub Swanson. Similar story to the previous, Lamas submitted Swanson about two years ago, but Cub has five straight wins since. "The Bully" feels he's already done enough to get a title shot, but the UFC brass doesn't seem convinced and a second triumph over Swanson should clarify his case. As for the other fighters coming off of a win in the top ten, I'd match Frankie Edgar with Nik Lentz and Dustin Poirier with Darren Elkins expecting that the winners of those two matches would meet to decide the next #1 contender. There's just two fighters in the top ten coming off of a loss: Chan Sung Jung and Dennis Siver. I'd hook them up to get one of the two back on the winning track. Just outside the top ten sits Manny Gamburyan whose currently on a two fight win streak (following a three fight losing streak that started with a loss to Aldo in the WEC). I'd give Gamburyan rising prospect Conor McGregor and figure that the winner would move into the top ten. Also just outside the top ten (but coming off of losses) are Clay Guida, Hatsu Hioki, and Erik Koch. Guida and Hioki have recently (and boringly) fought, so Koch would get Guide while Hioki would take on Robbie Peralta.
Matches the UFC has Made
The featherweight division almost seems like it's "on hold" in the UFC as only three of the top ten fighters have matches. Mendes will be squaring off with Lentz in Sacramento (Money's hometown) in December while Poirier is set to battle with Diego Brandao at the end of the year pay-per-view (UFC 168).
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
With Mendes occupied, the title shot now goes to Lamas. The setup Mendes/Lentz fight makes the most sense for the #1 contendership. I'd then match up Swanson with Edgar and Gamburyan with Elkins to fill in the gaps for the "winner's" bouts. All of my bouts for fighters coming off of losses still work, so I'll stick with them.
The featherweight title picture still feels quite backed up due to "superfights" and injuries to the champion. Aldo has only fought three times in the past two years, and the division really needs a bit more out of him to get things settled.
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