Where's George Goals/Predictions/Wishes for 2013

Another year brings about another set of goals, predictions, and wishes in my nerdy obsession of Where's George. Last year I split these into three different posts, but for this year I've recombined them. I think last year I got a bit broad in each category and picked some things that really weren't that interesting as the year played out. My plan is for this year's items to all be things that I'll still be interested in at the end of the year.

Starting off with my projection for bill entries. I predicted 5000 entries in 2012 and ended up entering 6200, so I was quite a bit off. I think 5000 is a more reasonable number, but based off of the past year, I think I'm going to predict 6000 for 2013. Using that information, I ran my program from last year for predicting hits based on past results and historical entries plus expected entering rate. The program predicted 1514 hits in 2013. I received 1531 hits in 2012 and getting less hits in 2013 doesn't seem right. So I reran the program for last year based on the actual amount of entries, and it predicted I would have gotten 1364 hits. So my actual amount of hits was 12.2% more. Expecting that the program would be the same percentage off, and adjusted amount of hits for 2013 is 1700 for a total of 6029. If that happens, my slugging percentage will be 20.85% (up from the current value of 18.89%). Using my Excel spreadsheet for predicting which of those hits would be the initial hits on a bill, I expect to have 1370 additional bills with hits for 5074 overall. That would result in a hit rate of 17.55% (up from the current value of 16.16%).

Based on the 1700 hits, I'd expect to average 4.6 hits/day. That information can be used to find the odds of getting a hit in any particular minute which can then be used to predict the odds of a hit-less day. Which in this case is just under 1% meaning I should only have 3-4 hit-less days in 2013 (I had 9 in 2012 after predicting no more than 13). So I'll predict 4 or less hit-less days and a hit streak of at least 100 days entirely in 2013 (so my 86 day hit streak coming into the year doesn't count).

I have a number of goals/predictions in regards to bingos. Starting off with 50 State bingo, I just need West Virginia, and I predict that I will get a hit in WV in 2013. As for California county bingo, I have hits in 55 of the 58 counties. I don't really believe it, but I predict that I'll get the final 3 counties. In 2012, I got hits in 44 States (well 43 plus the District of Columbia). For 2013, I would expect to do slightly better and thus predict 46. As for total counties hit, I currently have hits in 483. Based on the prediction of 1700 hits in 2013 plus my declining rate of getting new counties, I project 98 new counties in 2013 for a total of 581.

As for the bill entries, once again I'd like to increase the overall percentage ones make of my entries. Targeting increasing that percentage by 1% worked well in 2012, so I'll set the same goal in 2013. My current percentage is 87.64% so my goal for the end of 2013 is 88.64% this would require 92.5% of my entries in 2013 to be ones. In 2012, 91.25% of my entries were ones, so this may end up being a bit of a stretch goal. As for my FRB insertion experiment from last year where I inserted bills from my bottom 6 FRBs in an effort to increase their overall percentage of my bills entered, I plan to continue that effort in 2013 but in a different manner. In 2013, I plan to increase each of the non-San Francisco FRBs. In an attempt to get a second FRB to double digits percentage-wise of my entries, I'm going to target increasing my Atlanta (my second highest at 9.1%) percentage by 0.5%. For the six FRBs I increased in 2012, I'm going to target 0.1%. The others I will target increasing by 0.2%. Unlike last year where I blindly inserted a large number of bills, this year I will only insert in bills as needed to meet the targets.

Along with the above predictions and goals, I do have a few wishes. First, I would like to get my first 5 hit bill. I currently have 6 four hit bills, and it'd be nice to see one of those bills get another hit. Second, I would like to get my first 5+ year active bill. My longest active bill was last hit 4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes after I entered it. I look forward to that bill getting replaced at the top. My third wish is to break my current record for most hits in a month (160: May 2012). My second best month had 139 hits, so I really haven't gotten close to 160 since. In order to hit 1700 hits in 2013, I'd have to average 142 hits per month. So at a minimum, I'll have to set a new second best at worst.

Running: Retrospective and Plan

I set 4 goals for my running in 2012 at the start of 2012 (see my New Year's Running Resolutions post). I did pretty well in regards to completing the goals (missed just one):

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K

   This is the goal on which I came up a little short: I only completed 10. I ended up skipping out on the Sacramento Zoo Zoom in April due to illness. Had I not, I probably would have done the Jingle Bell Rock'n 10K in December to get in my twelfth event. Of the ten I completed, only 1 was a 5K, 8 were 10Ks, and then the other event was the half-marathon (I distance I didn't expect to do at the beginning of the year).

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes

   I annihilated this goal in the sole 5K I ran in 2012 with a time of 25:33. Going to be hard to beat that one.

3. Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes

   Only one of my 10Ks was worse than 62 minutes: the hilly and hot Folsom Run with Nature. My best 10K of the year was 53:05 which will also be a tough time to beat.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events

   I actually increased it in 4 (I only re-ran 4 events from 2011 in 2012): The Folsom Firecracker, Run for Courage, Intel GPTW 5K, and the Folsom Turkey Trot.

I have a few more goals in mind for 2013 although I'm not sure that I'll be as successful as I was in 2012. Here's what I'd like to accomplish in the new year:

1. Complete two half-marathons

   If I'm going to run half-marathons, I probably should target two a year to keep myself in the right condition to complete them. I've already signed up for the Shamrock'n Half Marathon and expect to also run the Urban Cow Half Marathon in October.

2. Participate in ten 10Ks

   An increase of two from what I did in 2012. Will likely require that I double up on a couple months in the summer (to not interfere with half-marathon training).

3. Improve my half-marathon PR to under 2 hours

   2 hours may be a bit optimistic, but if I keep healthy, I think I'd be able to get pretty close. I also think the two half-marathons I'm targeting are flatter than Four Bridges which should also help.

4. Improve my 10K PR to under 53 minutes

   Since my PR is currently 53:05, this goal is pretty much to just set a new PR.

5. Improve my 5K PR to under 25:30

   Similar story as the previous. My current PR is 25:33, so this is just a goal to beat it.

6. Set a new "Event Pace Record" at every event

   Basically if I run an event I've ran before, finish at a faster speed than I did previously (regardless of distance).

7. Run 800 miles

   If I run 16 miles a week (4 miles twice during the week and 8 on the weekend) every week, I'll run 832. I'll run more than that most weeks while training for half-marathons, but I'll run less during race weeks (targeting 11 at this point). I'll likely miss out on some miles while on vacation and/or while recovering (from racing or injuries). My gut feel is that this goal is too ambitious, but at least I'll have a baseline distance at the end of the year.

I look forward to taking on and hopefully completing these goals in 2013.

Weight Management: Retrospective and Plan

At the beginning of the year, I posted my 2012 Weight Management Plan which I started off with the following line:

2011 was not really a stellar year for weight management.

Sadly the same could be said for 2012. The first two months of the year were good as I was able to trim down my weight from 175 to about 170. After that, I had difficulty breaking the 170 barrier, and eventually started to watch my weight increase. I was able to stop the "bleeding" occasionally, but near the end of November, I found myself in the upper 180s. I put together a good solid effort in December to get myself back down to 180, and that's where I stand today.

I made some interesting observations about my weight in 2012 especially in regards to running. First off, being lighter didn't seem to make me faster. I think this is more so an observation that dieting (cutting calories) not surprisingly affects my athletic performance. I would expect that if I hit my ideal weight (whatever that is ... I was hoping to figure it out this past year) and stayed there, I'd see an improved performance since I'd be lighter and eating normally. My second observation (which affects my ability to commit to losing more pounds) is that at 178 I can run a half-marathon. It's hard to be disappointed with my weight if I can carry it for 13.1 miles.

In the past, I've always targeted losing a pound a week (which requires a 500 calorie deficit from maintenance calories). Since I'm currently at a "functioning" weight and since I've signed up for a half-marathon in March, I've set my plan on Lose It to a goal weight of 170 targeting a half pound a week (a 250 calorie deficit per day). I think the additional 250 calories will give me a reasonable target that will have me keeping my calories in check without spending too much time being hungry due to the diet.

At a rate of a half pound a week, I would hit 170 in mid-May. I plan to re-evaluate the plan after the half-marathon in March when I should be roughly 175 if all goes well.

When comparing weights, I like to look at my average weight over a week compared to the same measurement in the next. With that in mind, my baseline weight from this last week of 2012 is:

Dates	Avg Weight	Max Weight	Min Weight
12/24-12/30	179.9	181.0	178.8

The downside to comparing weights this way is that the performance of the end of the previous week affects the next week's average. Since I didn't do that well keeping myself in check calorie-wise this past week, I'm not sure that I'll see a half pound loss after the first week under the new plan, but I should see a bit of a loss, I would expect.