Where's George Goals/Predictions/Wishes for 2013

Another year brings about another set of goals, predictions, and wishes in my nerdy obsession of Where's George. Last year I split these into three different posts, but for this year I've recombined them. I think last year I got a bit broad in each category and picked some things that really weren't that interesting as the year played out. My plan is for this year's items to all be things that I'll still be interested in at the end of the year.

Starting off with my projection for bill entries. I predicted 5000 entries in 2012 and ended up entering 6200, so I was quite a bit off. I think 5000 is a more reasonable number, but based off of the past year, I think I'm going to predict 6000 for 2013. Using that information, I ran my program from last year for predicting hits based on past results and historical entries plus expected entering rate. The program predicted 1514 hits in 2013. I received 1531 hits in 2012 and getting less hits in 2013 doesn't seem right. So I reran the program for last year based on the actual amount of entries, and it predicted I would have gotten 1364 hits. So my actual amount of hits was 12.2% more. Expecting that the program would be the same percentage off, and adjusted amount of hits for 2013 is 1700 for a total of 6029. If that happens, my slugging percentage will be 20.85% (up from the current value of 18.89%). Using my Excel spreadsheet for predicting which of those hits would be the initial hits on a bill, I expect to have 1370 additional bills with hits for 5074 overall. That would result in a hit rate of 17.55% (up from the current value of 16.16%).

Based on the 1700 hits, I'd expect to average 4.6 hits/day. That information can be used to find the odds of getting a hit in any particular minute which can then be used to predict the odds of a hit-less day. Which in this case is just under 1% meaning I should only have 3-4 hit-less days in 2013 (I had 9 in 2012 after predicting no more than 13). So I'll predict 4 or less hit-less days and a hit streak of at least 100 days entirely in 2013 (so my 86 day hit streak coming into the year doesn't count).

I have a number of goals/predictions in regards to bingos. Starting off with 50 State bingo, I just need West Virginia, and I predict that I will get a hit in WV in 2013. As for California county bingo, I have hits in 55 of the 58 counties. I don't really believe it, but I predict that I'll get the final 3 counties. In 2012, I got hits in 44 States (well 43 plus the District of Columbia). For 2013, I would expect to do slightly better and thus predict 46. As for total counties hit, I currently have hits in 483. Based on the prediction of 1700 hits in 2013 plus my declining rate of getting new counties, I project 98 new counties in 2013 for a total of 581.

As for the bill entries, once again I'd like to increase the overall percentage ones make of my entries. Targeting increasing that percentage by 1% worked well in 2012, so I'll set the same goal in 2013. My current percentage is 87.64% so my goal for the end of 2013 is 88.64% this would require 92.5% of my entries in 2013 to be ones. In 2012, 91.25% of my entries were ones, so this may end up being a bit of a stretch goal. As for my FRB insertion experiment from last year where I inserted bills from my bottom 6 FRBs in an effort to increase their overall percentage of my bills entered, I plan to continue that effort in 2013 but in a different manner. In 2013, I plan to increase each of the non-San Francisco FRBs. In an attempt to get a second FRB to double digits percentage-wise of my entries, I'm going to target increasing my Atlanta (my second highest at 9.1%) percentage by 0.5%. For the six FRBs I increased in 2012, I'm going to target 0.1%. The others I will target increasing by 0.2%. Unlike last year where I blindly inserted a large number of bills, this year I will only insert in bills as needed to meet the targets.

Along with the above predictions and goals, I do have a few wishes. First, I would like to get my first 5 hit bill. I currently have 6 four hit bills, and it'd be nice to see one of those bills get another hit. Second, I would like to get my first 5+ year active bill. My longest active bill was last hit 4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes after I entered it. I look forward to that bill getting replaced at the top. My third wish is to break my current record for most hits in a month (160: May 2012). My second best month had 139 hits, so I really haven't gotten close to 160 since. In order to hit 1700 hits in 2013, I'd have to average 142 hits per month. So at a minimum, I'll have to set a new second best at worst.

Running: Retrospective and Plan

I set 4 goals for my running in 2012 at the start of 2012 (see my New Year's Running Resolutions post). I did pretty well in regards to completing the goals (missed just one):

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K

   This is the goal on which I came up a little short: I only completed 10. I ended up skipping out on the Sacramento Zoo Zoom in April due to illness. Had I not, I probably would have done the Jingle Bell Rock'n 10K in December to get in my twelfth event. Of the ten I completed, only 1 was a 5K, 8 were 10Ks, and then the other event was the half-marathon (I distance I didn't expect to do at the beginning of the year).

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes

   I annihilated this goal in the sole 5K I ran in 2012 with a time of 25:33. Going to be hard to beat that one.

3. Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes

   Only one of my 10Ks was worse than 62 minutes: the hilly and hot Folsom Run with Nature. My best 10K of the year was 53:05 which will also be a tough time to beat.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events

   I actually increased it in 4 (I only re-ran 4 events from 2011 in 2012): The Folsom Firecracker, Run for Courage, Intel GPTW 5K, and the Folsom Turkey Trot.

I have a few more goals in mind for 2013 although I'm not sure that I'll be as successful as I was in 2012. Here's what I'd like to accomplish in the new year:

1. Complete two half-marathons

   If I'm going to run half-marathons, I probably should target two a year to keep myself in the right condition to complete them. I've already signed up for the Shamrock'n Half Marathon and expect to also run the Urban Cow Half Marathon in October.

2. Participate in ten 10Ks

   An increase of two from what I did in 2012. Will likely require that I double up on a couple months in the summer (to not interfere with half-marathon training).

3. Improve my half-marathon PR to under 2 hours

   2 hours may be a bit optimistic, but if I keep healthy, I think I'd be able to get pretty close. I also think the two half-marathons I'm targeting are flatter than Four Bridges which should also help.

4. Improve my 10K PR to under 53 minutes

   Since my PR is currently 53:05, this goal is pretty much to just set a new PR.

5. Improve my 5K PR to under 25:30

   Similar story as the previous. My current PR is 25:33, so this is just a goal to beat it.

6. Set a new "Event Pace Record" at every event

   Basically if I run an event I've ran before, finish at a faster speed than I did previously (regardless of distance).

7. Run 800 miles

   If I run 16 miles a week (4 miles twice during the week and 8 on the weekend) every week, I'll run 832. I'll run more than that most weeks while training for half-marathons, but I'll run less during race weeks (targeting 11 at this point). I'll likely miss out on some miles while on vacation and/or while recovering (from racing or injuries). My gut feel is that this goal is too ambitious, but at least I'll have a baseline distance at the end of the year.

I look forward to taking on and hopefully completing these goals in 2013.

Weight Management: Retrospective and Plan

At the beginning of the year, I posted my 2012 Weight Management Plan which I started off with the following line:

2011 was not really a stellar year for weight management.

Sadly the same could be said for 2012. The first two months of the year were good as I was able to trim down my weight from 175 to about 170. After that, I had difficulty breaking the 170 barrier, and eventually started to watch my weight increase. I was able to stop the "bleeding" occasionally, but near the end of November, I found myself in the upper 180s. I put together a good solid effort in December to get myself back down to 180, and that's where I stand today.

I made some interesting observations about my weight in 2012 especially in regards to running. First off, being lighter didn't seem to make me faster. I think this is more so an observation that dieting (cutting calories) not surprisingly affects my athletic performance. I would expect that if I hit my ideal weight (whatever that is ... I was hoping to figure it out this past year) and stayed there, I'd see an improved performance since I'd be lighter and eating normally. My second observation (which affects my ability to commit to losing more pounds) is that at 178 I can run a half-marathon. It's hard to be disappointed with my weight if I can carry it for 13.1 miles.

In the past, I've always targeted losing a pound a week (which requires a 500 calorie deficit from maintenance calories). Since I'm currently at a "functioning" weight and since I've signed up for a half-marathon in March, I've set my plan on Lose It to a goal weight of 170 targeting a half pound a week (a 250 calorie deficit per day). I think the additional 250 calories will give me a reasonable target that will have me keeping my calories in check without spending too much time being hungry due to the diet.

At a rate of a half pound a week, I would hit 170 in mid-May. I plan to re-evaluate the plan after the half-marathon in March when I should be roughly 175 if all goes well.

When comparing weights, I like to look at my average weight over a week compared to the same measurement in the next. With that in mind, my baseline weight from this last week of 2012 is:

Dates	Avg Weight	Max Weight	Min Weight
12/24-12/30	179.9	181.0	178.8

The downside to comparing weights this way is that the performance of the end of the previous week affects the next week's average. Since I didn't do that well keeping myself in check calorie-wise this past week, I'm not sure that I'll see a half pound loss after the first week under the new plan, but I should see a bit of a loss, I would expect.

Back on the Weight Management Wagon

My biggest failure, goal-wise, for 2012 has to be in the area of weight management. I started the year in the mid-to-upper 170s with plans to get to my ideal weight which I estimated to be somewhere between 165-170. I started off the year strong getting my weight down to almost 170, but I got stuck where I couldn't break through to the 160s.

After a few frustrating weeks of being stuck around 171, I slacked off a bit and increased to around 173. I kept my weight in the lower part of the 170s until I went on vacation in June where I bounced up to the upper 170s. I made a bit of progress with renewed effort but kept having setbacks, and bounced back and forth between 175 and 180.

I started to make progress again when I started training for the Four Bridges Half Marathon and was in pretty good shape when I was derailed by a hamstring strain. From there, I seemed to quickly bulk up, and now a week after the half marathon, I'm close to the mid-180s. This has got to stop, now.

There are seven weeks left of 2012 (and unfortunately, a couple major eating holidays), but I have to get myself back to the upper 170s by end of year ... preferably around 177. I may have made that a bit more challenging these past couple days as I over-indulged knowing that I'd likely have to start dieting Monday. Additionally, I put off some yard work from today so that I'd have it available to do tomorrow (or Tuesday), so that I could get some calories back from the additional exercise.

Those couple of points have me a bit concerned that I'm not quite in the mindset needed for a successful weight loss. I guess it's a bit hard to be critical of my body after completing a half-marathon because, hey, I can't be in that bad of shape if I can run 13.1 miles. Which certainly is true, but I'd definitely be better off with a few less pounds.

So we'll see how it goes. At a minimum, if I force myself to record what I eat even if I overeat, I'll probably overeat by less just by knowing what I'm consuming.

New Year's Running Resolutions: Mid Year Review

At the beginning of the year, I wrote about what I hoped to accomplish running wise in 2012 (you can see that article here). Now that we're midway through the year, I thought I was a good time to see how I was doing and figure out the plan for the second half of the year.

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K
So far I've participated in 4 (all 10Ks): Folsom Super Bowl Run, Folsom Shamrock Run, Folsom Run With Nature, and Run 4 Independence. I additionally had signed up for the Sacramento Zoo Zoom, but I was sick that weekend and passed on participating. Getting 8 more events in this year may not happen. To help out with my planning, I've create a program that pulls race information from a few sites that I check, compiles that information, and then I publish it to the Runs I'm Considering page of this blog.

I've signed up for the Folsom Firecracker 10K and plan to sign up for the runs that I did last year (except the Banding Together for PARTY run that isn't scheduled for this year). That would get me to 9 events. I'm thinking I might do the Making the Grade/Run for Education 10K and Run Because You Can 10K. Part of that will depend on when (if?) Intel holds their Great Place to Work 5K. I currently don't have anything planned for July and August after the Firecracker run, so finding a race that fits in that time frame would be good.

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes
I haven't ran a 5K yet, so this one is still pending. I only have one 5K planned (although if I do pick up a race in July/August, it's looking like it'll be a 5K), so I'm not sure this one will happen. 27 minutes will be my target for any 5Ks I do take on.

Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes
Done! Three of my four 10Ks have been better than 62 minutes with only the extremely hilly and hot Run with Nature time coming above that. For the second half of the year, I'd like to break my personal record (58:48) once again.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events
I haven't repeated any events yet (since all of the events I ran last year were in the second half). I'll have only 5 chances, and if I focus on 10Ks, my only real opportunities will be the Folsom Firecracker, Intel GPTW Fun Run 5K (since it's a 5K only), and the Jingle Bell Rock'n Run. I still have hope to make this one.

Where's George Goals for 2012

Now that I've laid out my predictions for my Georging, it's time to move on to making some goals. My plan is to stick to goals that I can directly affect.

My first goal is a carryover from the predictions: entering an additional 5000 bills in 2012. That's an average of just over 416 bills a month (13⅔ a day). I surpassed that in the last six months of 2011, but only passed it twice in the first six months. I think a few things will make this challenging: different vacation plans this year compared to last and losing an "enabler" (she's now entering her own bills).

The second goal is to move up by rank both nationally and in California. Nationally, I'd like to become one of the top 1000 Georgers based on George Score. For the past month, I've bounced between 1025 and 1075 mostly on the upper end. To meet this goal, I'd like my rank to be no worse than 1000 in November and December. Additionally, I want my California rank to finish at 75 or better. I currently tend to be in the low 90s (occasionally dipping into the upper 80s). I think I'm "gaining" George Score points faster than many of those immediately in front of me. Based on my predictions, I'd end the year with a score above 1145. If I had that score today, I'd be in the upper 50s.

The third goal is based around the bills that I enter. First off, I'd like to continue the trend of entering more and more $1s. $1s currently make up 86.29% of my entries. I'd like to up that a full percentage. Secondly, I want series 2009 to move into second (behind 2006) overtaking 2003A. Currently 2003A leads 2009 by 3603 bills to 1339. Finally, I want to decrease the percentage of bills FRB L (San Francisco) makes up of my total to below 50% (currently at 51.0%) while increasing the percentage of each of the bottom six: Boston "A" (2.8%), Cleveland "D" (2.4%), St. Louis "H" (2.3%), Philadelphia "C" (2.2%), Minneapolis "I" (2.1%), and Kansas City "J" (1.7%). This third goal may require that I go out and "purchase" some BEP straps of the desired FRB. I didn't use to be open to that idea, but I thought I'd try it out and see how it goes.

My final goal is in regards to entry locations. I've entered bills in 50 different zip codes. Of those, I've entered 25+ in 22 zips. To encourage traveling and Georging, I'd like to see that number increase to 30 by the end of the year.

2012 Weight Management Plan

2011 was not really a stellar year for weight management. I started the year at around 165 (what was my definition of "ideal weight" at the time) and kept my weight in check until early May. After my trip to Hawaii in mid-May, I came back at 178. I got back under 170 in July and back to 165ish in August. Post wedding/honeymoon in September I was mid-to-low 170s. In November that moved to mid-to-upper 170s eventually hitting above 180 after Thanksgiving. I went back to tracking my calories on Lose It, was back to 175 by Christmas (bouncing around between 174 and 176 the week before), and finished the year around that (more bouncing between 174 and 176).

Late in the year, I started to question if 165 was truly my ideal weight. When I was around that weight, my 5K time was 4-4.5 minutes slower. I think this was in part due to training, but it seems like something else was a factor. That factor was either that I was too light and weakened myself or that I wasn't eating enough to fully energize myself.

To address this in 2012, I intend to experiment to find my ideal weight. I will set less aggressive weight loss goals, I will lighten up on restrictions near races, and I will reset my plan/target weight after races.

I'll start the year with a target goal of 171.5. I hope it hit this goal by mid-January, and then maintain that weight until the Folsom Super Bowl 10K Run on February 5. I imagine I'll attempt to shed a pound or two after, but we'll wait and see. The only thing I know for certain is that I need to keep my weight under 175.

A key to keeping my weight under control will be to prevent myself from going back to "full calorie" sodas (Pepsi, Coke, etc). Both of my big "blow ups" in 2011 were during periods of time that I let myself bring way too many of these colas. I'd like to think that I could have one every once in a while, but I think in large part that's how it all starts.

New Year's Running Resolutions

In 2011, I got back into running, and in particular, I started participating in organized runs with a length of 5K. I'd like to continue that into 2012, and I have some set goals in mind for what I'd like to do.

But first, a review of my runs and results from 2011. I participated in six 5Ks, and here are the race result "badges" I created for myself:













My peak performances were in October with a compariable result in November. My December time fell off a bit partly due to lack of training and weight gain. I'm going to deal with the weight issue in 2012, so hopefully it won't be a factor. Lack of training was largely due to weekend trips out of town. I'm not going to eliminate those, but if possible, I'll try to get some running done while away from home.

So with no further adiou, here are my running goals for 2012.

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K
I averaged a race per month in the second half of 2011, and I'd like to continue that trend in 2012. The year will get off to a slow start as I don't think I'm going to make an event in January. Shouldn't be a problem to double up later in the year when the weather is better.

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes
Frankly I'd just be happy to lower my 5K PR, but getting under 27 minutes would put me at 7 MPH which is a speed that I considered "out of my range" pre-knee injury, and I'm surprised I'm close to hitting it now.

3. Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes
Basically, I want to be able to do a 6 MPH 10K. I'm not sure if I'll be focusing more on 5K or 10K this year (I suspect 5K), but I think I 10K time in this range would be a good target for me. I did an unoffical 68:29 around-the-neighborhood 10K the day after Christmas on my first 10K+ run in a few years and then followed that up with a 68:12 10K four days later. I think I can trim a couple minutes just from having more rest and should be able to trim even more as I train for the distance. I tend to run faster at organized events than training, so I think there's a decent chance of achieving this.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events
Just in case I decide to focus on 10Ks, I wanted this goal to remain achievable and viable so I went with pace (MPH) versus time. I'd like to think that I could easily defeat my Folsom Firecracker pace at either 5K or 10K.