2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 10

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

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AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	1.4%	2.9%	-1.7%	-2.9%
Miami Dolphins	7.4%	19.2%	-3.4%	-5.3%
New England Patriots	74.6%	86.4%	+4.1%	+3.4%
New York Jets	16.6%	36.7%	+0.9%	+4.7%

It was a good week to be off for the AFC East. The two teams that had games lost increasing the likelihood that the Patriots, and to a lesser extent the Jets, would win the division. New York got some added benefits as the top challengers for the final wild card spot also all lost this past weekend.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	17.9%	24.4%	+5.9%	+9.3%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.0%	60.0%	-12.8%	-10.2%
Cleveland Browns	21.6%	26.9%	+3.0%	+3.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.5%	12.4%	+3.9%	+4.7%

Cincinnati's lead over every team in the division was cut by one this past weekend and their odds of winning the division dropped as a result. They still take it in half of the random simulations

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	3.9%	5.6%	-0.7%	-1.6%
Indianapolis Colts	74.8%	78.8%	+1.1%	-1.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.2%	1.5%	+0.6%	+0.7%
Tennessee Titans	20.1%	27.0%	-1.0%	-5.5%

It was a bad weekend for the South as only the lowly Jaguars won. The futility aided the Colts cause as their odds of winning the division rose even though they lost. Their match up against the Titans on Thursday Night Football will either nearly lock up the division or extend the battle.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	39.0%	93.1%	+8.7%	+9.3%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.2%	98.0%	-5.0%	+1.1%
Oakland Raiders	0.0%	9.4%	-0.6%	-2.6%
San Diego Chargers	0.8%	17.5%	-3.1%	-7.3%

Week 11's game pitting Kansas City against Denver will go a long way in determining who takes the West. Both of those teams will surely make the playoffs. The Chargers have an outside chance of giving the West a wild card sweep in the AFC.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	47.8%	51.1%	-9.7%	-11.8%
New York Giants	10.2%	11.8%	+2.8%	+2.9%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.1%	39.3%	+11.3%	+11.3%
Washington Redskins	9.8%	10.8%	-4.3%	-5.8%

The Cowboys and Eagles are tied atop the division at 5-5, but Dallas has a much better chance of winning the division based on having a head-to-head victory over Philly along with having an undefeated division record (the Eagles are 2-2 against the East). None of the teams are out of the divisional race, but there's little chance of any of them getting a wild card.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	17.9%	30.6%	-14.9%	-16.8%
Detroit Lions	54.5%	67.2%	+20.9%	+16.7%
Green Bay Packers	26.9%	35.5%	-6.3%	-12.6%
Minnesota Vikings	0.7%	1.7%	+0.3%	+0.3%

With their win this past weekend against Chicago, Detroit now has a commanding lead in the North although the Bears and Packers are only a game behind. Health-wise, the Lions are in the best shape of the three. Chicago and Green Bay are both currently on the outside of the wild card race also.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	0.4%	3.0%	-2.2%	-3.3%
Carolina Panthers	37.4%	68.6%	+2.0%	+12.4%
New Orleans Saints	62.2%	84.9%	+0.3%	+6.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

After blowing away the division at the start of the season, the Saints now find the Panthers firmly on their heels. Both are favorites to make the playoffs as of right now. The rest of the division will have to regroup for next year.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	3.1%	31.2%	-0.2%	+7.1%
San Francisco 49ers	13.1%	59.5%	-10.5%	-12.5%
Seattle Seahawks	83.1%	96.8%	+10.8%	+3.9%
St. Louis Rams	0.7%	7.9%	-0.1%	+1.9%

Seattle is the team most likely to win their division at this point and second most likely to make the playoffs. San Francisco's loss to Carolina set them back quite a bit, but they are still likely to make the playoffs. The rest of the division is arguably more still in it than the bottom two from any other division.

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There are 18 teams that might not win their division even if they win out (since there are 24 non-division leading teams, that means only 6 teams currently not leading their divisions are assured to take over if they win out). Of those 18, 12 might even miss the playoffs. Tampa Bay, by far, is the most dead and could be the first team to be "out of contention" after this coming weekend.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.6%	5.6%
Oakland Raiders	0.6%	98.4%
Atlanta Falcons	10.1%	67.9%
St. Louis Rams	10.8%	96.0%
Minnesota Vikings	16.0%	41.8%
San Diego Chargers	19.4%	99.9%
Buffalo Bills	21.5%	51.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars	26.6%	34.4%
Arizona Cardinals	46.9%	100.0%
Houston Texans	60.4%	88.6%
Miami Dolphins	76.6%	100.0%
New York Jets	88.5%	100.0%
San Francisco 49ers	89.3%	100.0%
New York Giants	92.8%	99.4%
Chicago Bears	93.0%	100.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	96.3%	99.7%
Washington Redskins	96.4%	99.6%
Baltimore Ravens	99.0%	100.0%

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There are four teams that might make the playoffs or win their division even if they lose out. The Chiefs are the farthest along in locking up a playoff spot (a win against Denver will perhaps clinch one). The Seahawks could win the NFC West even with losing out, but it seems highly unlikely.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%	56.3%
Seattle Seahawks	7.6%	40.6%
Denver Broncos	0.0%	2.3%
New England Patriots	0.6%	0.7%

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 10

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

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Both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are win-less no more! Both won against teams that were 4-4 and needing a win to keep in the playoff hunt. Jacksonville's win was more surprising as it was on the road and Tampa Bay was playing a team (Miami) with some major off-the-field issues. Who would have guessed that the only remaining undefeated team would have kept it's "oh" longer than those two especially with Kansas City travelling to Denver this week. Week 10 was a week of surprises although the results left the playoff picture pretty much unchanged.

Starting off in the AFC with the East, the top half of the division was off this week, and as such, the Patriots still have a two game lead over the Jets. With their loss in MNF, the Dolphins are now a game back of New York. The Bills are 1.5 games behind Miami.

Moving onto the North, Cincinnati lost this weekend and currently hold a game and a half lead over Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens and Browns are 1-1 against each other this year, but Baltimore has played and lost an additional divisional game, so the Browns currently have the tiebreaker for second having a 2-1 divisional record (versus 2-2 for the Ravens). Pittsburgh is last at a game back on those two.

Down South, only the previously winless Jacksonville won. As such, the Colts still have a two game lead over the Titans who have a two game lead over the Texans who now have just a one game lead over the Jaguars.

As for the West, 9-0 Kansas City had a bye this week and saw their lead in the division drop to just a game over Denver. San Diego is four games back from the Broncos in third, and Oakland is a game back from the Chargers.

The AFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record. The 9-0 Chiefs are at the top followed by the 7-2 Patriots. The 6-3 Colts are third, and the 6-4 Bengals are fourth.

As for the wild cards, Denver still has the best non-division leading record and controls the first wild card. New York has the best record among those in contention for the second wild card, and so they currently have it. This week AFC's playoff picture is the same as last week:

Moving onto the NFC, there's now a tie atop the East between the 5-5 Cowboys and 5-5 Eagles. Dallas won in Philadelphia when they faced off earlier this season, and so the Cowboys currently have the divisional lead via tiebreakers. The Giants and Redskins are tied for third a game and a half back from the leaders. New York and Washington have yet to play this season, but the Giants have played and won an extra divisional game and so they have the tiebreaker via having the better divisional record (1-2 versus 0-2).

Up North, the three way tie has been broken as only Detroit was victorious of the three this week. Chicago and Green Bay are now tied a game back from the Lions, and since the Bears defeated the Packers in their only match up so far this year, Chicago has second via tiebreakers. Minnesota got their second win this season on Thursday and sit 3 games back from the Bears and Packers.

The top two teams from the South won this weekend, and so the Saints maintained their game lead over the Panthers. The Falcons are four games behind Carolina. And the Buccaneers, with their win, are just a game back on Atlanta.

Out West, Seattle's lead over San Francisco has extended to two and a half games. Arizona is a game behind the 49ers, and St. Louis is one and a half games behind the Cardinals.

The NFC divisional leaders are also rank-able by record. The 9-1 Seahawks lead the way with the 7-2 Saints a game and a half behind. The Lions are currently third at 6-3, and the 5-5 Cowboys have the fourth spot.

As for the NFC's wild cards, two of the second place teams are tied at 6-3: Carolina and San Francisco. Those two faced off this past weekend, and the Panthers won, so they're currently the five seed while the 49ers are the six. Here's the current NFC playoff picture (the same teams as last week with just the two wild cards switching spots):

Looking ahead to the playoff picture after next week, the scenarios in the AFC are a lot simpler than those in the NFC. The Patriots, Bengals, and Colts will all still be leading their divisions after the weekend is over. As for the West, the Chiefs will be playing the Broncos in Denver, and the winner will be atop the division (either Kansas City with a tie game lead or Denver via head-to-head tiebreaker). The loser of that game will have the first wild card. The second wild card will go to the first team from the following list to win: Jets, Titans, Browns, Ravens, and Chargers. If all five of those teams lose, New York will keep the spot.

On the NFC side, only the Seahawks are locked in to be leading their division after next weekend. With the Cowboys on a bye next week, control of the East is in the hands of the Eagles. If Philly wins, they take over the lead otherwise it stays with Dallas. As for the North, the Lions keep the lead unless they lose, the Bears lose, and the Packers win (because Detroit controls the three-way tiebreaker via divisional record and the head-to-head tiebreaker versus Chicago so they only lose the lead in a tie with Green Bay who has the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Lions). The Saints will keep the lead in the South with a win or a loss by the Panthers. Otherwise the division lead will come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker. If New Orleans comes out behind on that tiebreaker, they will be a wild card.

As for the NFC wild cards, Carolina and San Francisco keep their spots with wins (or as just mentioned, the Panthers spot goes to the Saints if they take the divisional lead). If the Panthers lose, they will most likely still keep a wild card spot, but they could lose the spot to the Cardinals (who have a win against the Panthers). However, in order for Arizona to take the spot, the 49ers must win and the second place team from the North must not be tied with Arizona and Carolina unless that team is Detroit (whom the Cardinals also have beaten this year). As for the 49ers, they will lose the wild card spot to the Lions if Detroit falls to second in the North (by losing and having the Bears lose while the Packers win).

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 9

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

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AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	3.1%	5.8%	-4.2%	-5.7%
Miami Dolphins	10.7%	24.5%	+0.0%	+5.6%
New England Patriots	70.5%	83.0%	+4.7%	+6.8%
New York Jets	15.7%	32.0%	-0.5%	+5.5%

New England, New York, and Miami won this weekend, but only the Patriots saw their odds of winning the division increase. The Dolphins didn't lose any ground unlike the Jets because their win came against a conference foe. The Bills are pretty much done.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	12.0%	15.1%	-4.3%	-7.6%
Cincinnati Bengals	62.9%	70.2%	-3.4%	-6.1%
Cleveland Browns	18.6%	23.6%	+8.8%	+9.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.6%	7.7%	-1.0%	-3.0%

The Browns were the only winners from the division this past weekend, but they only got a slight boost from the win.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	4.6%	7.2%	-7.8%	-7.8%
Indianapolis Colts	73.7%	79.9%	+6.7%	+8.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.7%	0.9%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Tennessee Titans	21.0%	32.5%	+1.6%	+6.1%

Funny to think that had Houston not gotten "lucky" in their first two games, that the AFC South could have two 0-8 teams. Indianapolis has a pretty strong hold on the division, but Tennessee is still alive.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	30.3%	83.8%	-3.1%	+0.3%
Kansas City Chiefs	65.1%	96.9%	+7.8%	+3.9%
Oakland Raiders	0.6%	12.0%	-1.6%	-5.9%
San Diego Chargers	3.9%	24.8%	-3.1%	-8.9%

The Chiefs are closing in on locking up the first playoff position. The two games between Kansas City and Denver between weeks 11 and 13 will decide the fate of the division, but all of the teams in the division are still alive in the playoff hunt.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	57.6%	62.9%	+2.8%	+4.8%
New York Giants	7.4%	8.8%	-2.8%	-2.5%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.9%	28.0%	+0.3%	+3.3%
Washington Redskins	14.2%	16.7%	-0.3%	+0.8%

Dallas had to fight to comeback against lowly Minnesota, but the win helped solidify their lead in the division. New York has the best chance of any of the last place teams to win their division.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	32.9%	47.4%	+11.0%	+12.3%
Detroit Lions	33.6%	50.5%	+3.8%	-0.6%
Green Bay Packers	33.2%	48.0%	-13.7%	-14.2%
Minnesota Vikings	0.4%	1.5%	-1.1%	-2.5%

The three-way tie between the Bears, Lions, and Packers can be seen in each of their division winning chances. Detroit has a slight edge due to having the best conference record, and likewise Green Bay has an edge over Chicago for the same reason even though the Bears won the first match up between the two.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	2.6%	6.3%	-2.8%	-5.2%
Carolina Panthers	35.4%	56.2%	+11.7%	+12.7%
New Orleans Saints	61.9%	78.5%	-8.5%	-5.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.1%	0.2%	-0.4%	-2.3%

Things are getting tighter in the South, as Carolina closes in on New Orleans. Tampa Bay has the worst playoff chances of any team in the NFL.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	3.4%	24.0%	-1.2%	-0.8%
San Francisco 49ers	23.6%	72.0%	-4.9%	-0.5%
Seattle Seahawks	72.3%	92.9%	+7.8%	+4.5%
St. Louis Rams	0.8%	6.0%	-1.7%	-4.0%

The Seahawks have the second best shot of winning their division and the second best chance of making the playoffs of all teams in the NFL. The 49ers have a better chance of making the playoffs than a few of the divisional leaders.

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19 teams might not win their division even if they win out. Of those teams, 10 might not even make the playoffs.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.8%	6.8%
Minnesota Vikings	11.0%	40.3%
St. Louis Rams	15.9%	95.4%
Oakland Raiders	16.0%	99.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	17.3%	22.9%
Buffalo Bills	50.7%	91.6%
Atlanta Falcons	53.5%	99.2%
Arizona Cardinals	58.2%	100.0%
Houston Texans	71.9%	99.3%
San Diego Chargers	77.8%	100.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	87.9%	98.8%
New York Jets	88.7%	100.0%
New York Giants	89.7%	99.5%
Miami Dolphins	94.6%	100.0%
Cleveland Browns	98.1%	100.0%
Philadelphia Eagles	98.2%	100.0%
Washington Redskins	98.3%	100.0%
Baltimore Ravens	98.9%	100.0%
San Francisco 49ers	99.8%	100.0%

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Three teams have started the process of locking up a playoff position (they would still make the playoffs even if they lose out). The Chiefs lead that group already having better than a one third chance of making the playoffs if they lost their remaining seven games.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%	36.4%
Seattle Seahawks	0.8%	2.2%
New England Patriots	0.3%	0.3%

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 9

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

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Every team in the NFL has now played at least eight games (ten teams have played nine including the undefeated Chiefs), and the race for the playoffs is now truly heating up. This weeks playoff picture features one returning team and one team that's making its first appearance of the year.

Starting things off in the AFC, New England continues to lead the East by two games over New York. Miami follows a half game behind the Jets, and Buffalo is a game and a half between the Dolphins. The Patriots and Jets are off this coming week, so New England will still have a two game lead when week 10 is done.

The Bengals continue to lead the North, but their lead is down to just two games over the Browns (the only team from the division to win this past weekend). The Ravens trail Cleveland by a half game, and the Steelers are a game behind Baltimore.

Down South, each spot is separated by two games. Indianapolis is on top, followed by Tennessee, then there's Houston, and finally Jacksonville brings up the rear.

As for the West, the Chiefs lead the Broncos by a game and a half. The Chargers are three games behind Denver, and the Raiders are a game behind San Diego.

Moving onto ranking the division leaders, everything is decided by record. Kansas City at 9-0 leads the way followed by New England at 7-2. Indianapolis (the only AFC division leader who's had their bye) is #3 at 6-2. Cincinnati has the #4 spot at 6-3.

Denver, with the second best record in the AFC, controls the first wild card position. The second spot goes to New York - the only other AFC team with a winning record. The AFC's playoff picture currently looks as such:

Over on the NFC side, it was a good week for the NFC East as each team that played won (the Giants had the week off). The Cowboys continue to lead the division and maintain a game lead over the Eagles. Philly has a half game lead over the Redskins, who in turn lead the Giants by a game.

Up North, there's a three way tie for best record between Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay. The Packers beat the Lions who beat the Bears who beat the Packers, so the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't solve anything. All three have defeated Minnesota once and are 2-1 in the division, so that doesn't solve things either. Moving onto common games, they're all 4-1 (with 5 more common games yet to be played), so that doesn't do it either. Chicago is 3-3 against NFC teams, Detroit is 4-2, while Green Bay is 3-2, so the Lions have the best conference record and currently have the tiebreaker edge. The Bears have the head-to-head edge over the Packers, so they are second for now. Green Bay is third, and the Vikings are fourth four games back.

New Orleans still leads the South, but their lead is now down to a game over Carolina. Atlanta is three behind the Panthers, and the 0-8 Buccaneers are two games behind the Falcons.

Out West, the Seahawks lead the 49ers by a game and a half. The Cardinals are two games behind San Francisco, and the Rams are a game and a half behind Arizona.

Seattle has the best record in the NFC and currently control the #1 seed. New Orleans are a game and a half behind in the #2 seed. Detroit is next one game back of the Saints, and Dallas is a half game behind the Lions.

Looking at the second place teams for the wild card, San Francisco has the best record and thus the first wild card position. Carolina and Chicago are tied for the next spot. Since they haven't played, conference record will decide who gets the spot. The Panthers are 5-2 in the NFC while the Bears are only 3-3, so currently Carolina has the second wild card spot. Here's the NFC's current playoff picture:

Looking ahead to next week, the only divisional lead that could change hands is that of the NFC North. Interestingly, the Bears have the best chance to lead the division. Chicago is playing Detroit, and if the Bears win, they take over the lead regardless of the outcome of the Packers game (since Chicago currently has the head-to-head tiebreaker). If the Lions beat the Bears, the lead will go to the Packers if they win (since they currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit) otherwise the Lions will maintain control.

As for the wild cards, the only team locked in is the Broncos. The second AFC wild card will go to the Titans if they win (and they should since they're playing the Jaguars). Otherwise, it'll go to the Chargers if they win. If neither Tennessee nor San Diego win, the spot will stay with the Jets (who'll be on a bye).

On the NFC side, the winner of Carolina at San Francisco will have the first wild card spot. The second spot will be determined by the outcome of the Detroit/Chicago and Philadelphia/Green Bay games. If the Eagles beat the Packers, the loser of Carolina/San Francisco will get the second spot. Otherwise, if the Packers win, the Lions take the spot if they win. If Detroit loses, Green Bay gets the spot if the 49ers win, but the 49ers get it if they lose (since San Francisco has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay).

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 8

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

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AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	7.3%	11.5%	-3.6%	-5.6%
Miami Dolphins	10.7%	18.9%	-8.4%	-10.3%
New England Patriots	65.8%	76.1%	+20.6%	+16.5%
New York Jets	16.2%	26.5%	-8.6%	-11.4%

It was another good week for the Patriots in which they defeated a division rival and watched as the other two teams in the division lost. Only one other team saw their division winning and playoff making percentages jump by double digits (Bengals). None of the other teams in the division are dead yet, but the Grim Reaper is closing in.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	16.3%	22.7%	-1.2%	-0.9%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.3%	76.4%	+12.3%	+10.8%
Cleveland Browns	9.8%	14.3%	-6.4%	-9.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.6%	10.8%	-4.6%	-7.1%

Other than Cincinnati's three win, the other teams in the division have only combined for one win in the past three weeks, and that win belongs to Pittsburgh. Baltimore and Cleveland have fallen off of the edge of the world, although perhaps a bit of slack could be given to the Ravens who were off this past weekend. Like the East, no teams are out of it in this division, so they'll hit that designation soon.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	12.4%	15.0%	+0.2%	+0.2%
Indianapolis Colts	67.0%	71.8%	+0.9%	+0.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.2%	1.4%	-1.4%	-1.7%
Tennessee Titans	19.4%	26.5%	+0.3%	+0.0%

A few weeks ago, this division had the best three way race for the lead, but now the Colts are running away with things. All three of the "top" teams were off this past weekend, and the Texans and Titans will need to return well-rested from the break if they want to make up ground. The Jags are off this weekend (they seem to be off every weekend honestly) and can prep to go 0-8 for the final eight.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	33.4%	83.5%	+1.1%	+8.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.4%	93.0%	+1.5%	+4.6%
Oakland Raiders	2.2%	17.9%	-0.4%	+5.3%
San Diego Chargers	7.0%	33.7%	-2.1%	+0.2%

Oakland won and San Diego was off, but even still, both saw their odds of winning the division decrease as Kansas City and Denver improved to 8-0 and 7-1 respectively. As of now, we could be seeing both wild cards come out of this division.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	54.7%	58.2%	-0.1%	-5.1%
New York Giants	10.2%	11.4%	+4.5%	+4.3%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.6%	24.8%	-3.8%	-9.1%
Washington Redskins	14.4%	15.9%	-0.6%	-3.6%

Another bad week for the NFC East with only the Giants picking up a win (against division rival Philadelphia). The Cowboys would have a commanding lead if they hadn't blown leads against the Broncos and Lions. Although they currently statistically have the worst chance, I almost fear that New York is really the favorite to win this division.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	21.9%	35.0%	-4.8%	-5.1%
Detroit Lions	29.8%	51.1%	+2.8%	+7.3%
Green Bay Packers	46.8%	62.3%	+5.8%	+7.1%
Minnesota Vikings	1.5%	3.9%	-3.8%	-3.7%

Home of the best three team race in the NFL, Green Bay has the opportunity to bury Chicago this Monday at home. At this point, the Minnesota is all but done.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	5.4%	11.5%	-4.7%	-9.6%
Carolina Panthers	23.7%	43.5%	+2.4%	+6.8%
New Orleans Saints	70.4%	84.3%	+4.7%	+4.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.5%	2.5%	-2.3%	-2.3%

Of all teams, the Saints have the largest lead in their division, but the Panthers have started to move forward in the past few weeks and have become part of the wild card conversation. The Buccaneers, who have one less loss than the Jaguars, are the most dead of any team in the NFL.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	4.5%	24.8%	-0.4%	+5.5%
San Francisco 49ers	28.5%	72.6%	+0.5%	+7.0%
Seattle Seahawks	64.4%	88.4%	+6.3%	+6.2%
St. Louis Rams	2.5%	10.0%	-6.3%	-9.8%

Seattle has won a couple of games on the road that they "should" have lost (against Carolina and St. Louis), and those types of wins are the ones that bring about championships. Things are still strongly indicating that the top wild card team will come out of this division.

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There are 19 teams that might not win their division even if they were to win out from here. Of those teams, five may not even make the playoffs if they win out. The Buccaneers have the worst shot at winning their division but have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jaguars.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.6%	71.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	30.2%	34.9%
Minnesota Vikings	41.6%	94.3%
St. Louis Rams	48.9%	99.8%
Oakland Raiders	53.7%	100.0%
Arizona Cardinals	70.0%	100.0%
Atlanta Falcons	81.2%	100.0%
Buffalo Bills	83.1%	99.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	92.7%	100.0%
Cleveland Browns	92.8%	100.0%
New York Jets	93.0%	100.0%
New York Giants	93.7%	99.8%
Miami Dolphins	97.1%	100.0%
San Diego Chargers	98.1%	100.0%
Houston Texans	99.0%	100.0%
Washington Redskins	99.1%	100.0%
Philadelphia Eagles	99.1%	100.0%
Detroit Lions	99.6%	100.0%
San Francisco 49ers	99.9%	100.0%

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The NFL's top team (the Kansas City Chiefs) have started to lock up their playoff spot. Even if Kansas City lost out from here, they'd still make the playoffs 0.7% of the team. Granted that's not much, but it's interesting that they're already starting to show up in this category.

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 8

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

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We are now at the "sort of" midway point in the NFL season: half of the 32 teams have played 8 games (the other half have only played seven). Currently there are no ties within any of the divisions (and only one tie that affects a playoff position), so today's run down will be a lot easier than usual.

Starting off with the AFC East, the Patriots added a game to their game this past weekend and now lead the Jets by two games. The Dolphins follow a half game back, and the Bills are a half game behind Miami.

Up North, Cincinnati won their fourth straight game and now lead Baltimore by two and a half games. Cleveland is a half game behind the Ravens, and Pittsburgh is a half game behind the Browns.

In the South, the Colts lead the Titans by two games and the Texans by three. The Jaguars are an embarrassing 0-8 (5.5 games behind Indianapolis).

Out West, undefeated Kansas City leads Denver by a game. San Diego is 2.5 games behind the Broncos, and Oakland is a game back of the Chargers.

Ranking the divisional leaders, the Chiefs are two games ahead of the Bengals and Patriots. Cincinnati has the tie breaking edge over New England since they won their head-to-head match up. Indianapolis was off this past weekend and fell a half game behind the tied duo.

As for the wild cards, the Broncos have the best record of the second place teams and thus currently have the first wild card. The 4-3 Chargers have the next best record, so they have the second wild card. Therefore both of the AFC's wild card spots are currently coming from the West. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

Moving onto the NFC, the 4-4 Cowboys lead the East by one game over the Eagles. The Redskins are a half game back from there, and the Giants are a half game back on Washington.

As for the North, Green Bay leads Detroit by a half game. Chicago is a game behind the Lions, and Minnesota is three games behind the Bears.

Down South, the Saints have a two game lead over the Panthers. The Falcons are two games behind Carolina, and the Buccaneers are two games back of Atlanta.

In the West, the Seahawks lead the 49ers by a game. The Cardinals are two games back of San Francisco, and the Rams are a game back from Arizona.

Looking at the divisional leaders, Seattle leads the way at 7-1. The Saints are second at 6-1: a half game back. A game back from New Orleans are the Packers. The Cowboys are a game and a half behind Green Bay.

The first NFC wild card is currently the 49ers at 6-2. The second belongs to the Lions at 5-3. The NFC playoff picture is the same as last week:

Looking ahead to next week, nine of the twelve playoff positions are locked up before any games have been played. Seven of those are divisional leaderships. Additionally both of the top wild card are already known. Regarding the division leaders, all of the current AFC leaders (Kansas City, Cincinnati, New England, and Indianapolis) will still be leading their division after next week along with Dallas, New Orleans, and Seattle. As for the locked up wild cards, Denver and San Francisco are assured their spots next week.

As for the NFC North, the Packers will retain the lead if they win otherwise the Lions take over (Detroit is on a bye next week).

Six teams have a shot at the second AFC wild card spot. The best chance goes to the Chargers who keep the spot if they win or if all of the contenders lose. The Jets take the spot with a win and a loss by San Diego. The Titans get the spot with a win and a loss by both of the previous teams. If those three all lose, the Ravens can take the spot with a win. The Dolphins take the spot with a win and a loss by the previous four. And if San Diego, New York, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Miami all lose, the Raiders can take over with a win.

The NFC wild card possibilities are simpler. If Carolina wins, they get the spot. Otherwise the result of the Chicago/Green Bay game decides it: the Bears take the spot if they win otherwise the Lions keep the spot with a Packers win.

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 7

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

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AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	10.9%	17.1%	+4.4%	+5.6%
Miami Dolphins	19.1%	29.2%	-4.4%	-9.6%
New England Patriots	45.2%	59.6%	-9.8%	-10.0%
New York Jets	24.8%	37.9%	+9.9%	+11.7%

Losing to the Jets has hurt the Patriots chances, but they still have the beat chance to win the East. This division is currently the second closest of all the divisions in the NFL.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	17.5%	23.6%	-9.2%	-11.5%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.0%	65.5%	+12.9%	+12.0%
Cleveland Browns	16.3%	23.7%	-6.3%	-8.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.2%	17.8%	+2.6%	+4.7%

The Bengals have had a great couple of weeks picking up two wins while their closest rivals lost both weeks. The Ravens and Browns need to pick things up or else the wild card is going to pass them by also.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	12.2%	14.8%	-5.3%	-7.2%
Indianapolis Colts	66.1%	71.1%	+13.7%	+12.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.6%	3.1%	-1.8%	-1.9%
Tennessee Titans	19.1%	26.4%	-6.7%	-8.3%

The Colts got a big win this past weekend and losses by everyone else in the division helped strength the edge gained. At 0-7, Jacksonville is nearing the point where their season is officially done. 9-7 may not be good enough to win the division nor make the playoffs.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	32.3%	75.6%	-11.9%	-6.6%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.9%	88.4%	+10.4%	+6.5%
Oakland Raiders	2.6%	12.6%	-0.1%	+0.6%
San Diego Chargers	9.2%	33.5%	+1.6%	+9.1%

Denver finally lost, so Kansas City finally has a nice advantage in regards to winning the division since they stayed undefeated. Oakland and San Diego are unlikely to win the division, but the Chargers still have hopes of making the playoffs.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	54.8%	63.3%	+12.7%	+12.9%
New York Giants	5.7%	7.1%	+1.1%	+1.4%
Philadelphia Eagles	24.3%	33.9%	-17.3%	-16.1%
Washington Redskins	15.1%	19.5%	+3.6%	+5.1%

Three of the four teams in the division won this past weekend, a nice result for what is potentially the NFL's worst division. The Cowboys now have a commanding lead in regards to chances of winning the division thanks to a win this past weekend over their closest rival (on Philadelphia's field, no less).

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	26.7%	40.1%	-5.2%	-10.5%
Detroit Lions	26.9%	43.8%	-6.2%	-9.5%
Green Bay Packers	41.0%	55.1%	+12.5%	+10.6%
Minnesota Vikings	5.3%	7.6%	-1.0%	-3.4%

The NFC North now has the best three way race in the NFL with Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay all in contention. Minnesota is in pretty bad shape and should be thinking about future seasons.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	10.2%	21.1%	+1.9%	+5.6%
Carolina Panthers	21.3%	36.7%	+3.4%	+8.4%
New Orleans Saints	65.8%	80.2%	-3.1%	-1.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.8%	4.8%	-2.2%	-2.7%

The Saints were off this past weekend, and while they were resting, the Panthers and Falcons both won. Regardless, New Orleans still has a very strong lead in the South.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	4.9%	19.2%	-7.2%	-11.0%
San Francisco 49ers	28.1%	65.6%	+3.4%	+10.2%
Seattle Seahawks	58.2%	82.1%	+9.4%	+10.5%
St. Louis Rams	8.8%	19.8%	-5.6%	-10.4%

Seattle and San Francisco are both likely playoff teams, the big question is who will win the division. As of now, the Seahawks are much more likely.

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The list of teams that might not win their division even if they win out has increased dramatically this week. Eighteen of the twenty-four non-division leaders now are at less than 100%. Additionally three of the teams might not even make the playoffs if they win out. Those teams are Jacksonville (75.2%), New York Giants (99.8%), and Tampa Bay (99.8%).

	Div Win
Jacksonville Jaguars	59.7%
Oakland Raiders	63.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	66.2%
Arizona Cardinals	80.2%
New York Giants	87.9%
Atlanta Falcons	96.2%
Minnesota Vikings	96.6%
Buffalo Bills	96.8%
St. Louis Rams	98.6%
San Diego Chargers	99.0%
Houston Texans	99.1%
Cleveland Browns	99.4%
Washington Redskins	99.5%
Philadelphia Eagles	99.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6%
New York Jets	99.6%
Detroit Lions	99.8%
San Francisco 49ers	99.9%

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 7

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

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And then there was just one ... The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's only remaining undefeated team. Additionally there is one less remaining winless team bringing it down to two: Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have played one less game. I'd bet on them getting a win before the Jaguars. But there's much more to this season than these teams. Here's a look at the full picture:

Starting off with the AFC East, New England still leads the division but now by just a game over New York (who beat them this weekend). Miami is a half game back on the Jets (the home loss to the Bills this weekend was pretty bad), and Buffalo is a half game back on the Dolphins.

Moving onto the North, the Bengals added another game of separation between them and the Browns and Ravens. They now lead by two. Baltimore has the tiebreaker lead over Cleveland by virtue of having the head-to-head victory. The Steelers are a half game back on Balitmore and Cleveland in fourth.

Down South, Indianapolis was the only team to record a win, and they now lead Tennessee by two. Houston follows a game back. Winless Jacksonville is two games behind the Texans.

With the undefeated tie broken in the West, the Chiefs lead the Broncos by a game. The Chargers are two games back from Denver but have a winning record. Oakland is a game and a half behind San Diego in last.

Moving on to ranking the divisional leaders, Kansas City has a two game lead on all of the other divisional leader. The three way tie between New England, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis is broken by conference record. The Bengals are best in that regard at 3-1 followed by the Colts (3-2) and then the Patriots (2-2).

As for the wild card teams, Denver has the best record of the second place teams at 6-1 and have the #5 seed. The #6 seed comes down to a tie between the Jets and Chargers (both at 4-3). They haven't played, so the head-to-head tiebreaker is out. Both have a 2-3 conference record, so they're even there. They will play 5 common games this year, and keeping in mind that unplayed games are considered ties, New York has a better record in common games: 0-1-4 to 0-2-3. So the Jets get the #6 seed for now. The full AFC playoff picture is:

Over on the NFC side, the Cowboys lead the East by a game over the Eagles (whom they defeated this past weekend). The Redskins are a half game back on Philadelphia. The Giants, who just got their first win, are a game and a half behind Washington at the bottom of the division.

Up North, Green Bay has jumped to the top of the division with a half game lead over Chicago and Detroit. The Lions still has the lead over the Bears based on head-to-head victory. The Vikings are two and a half games between those two.

In the South, the Saints were off but still lead the Panthers by two games. Atlanta is a game back of Carolina, and the winless Buccaneers are two back on the Falcons.

Out West, Seattle still leads San Francisco by a game (and a head-to-head victory). The Cardinals and Rams are tied two games back of the 49ers, and St. Louis has the tiebreaker edge since they have the head-to-head victory.

The NFC's divisional leaders are easier to rank than the AFC's since all are ranked by record. The Seahawks are tops at 6-1 followed by the Saints at 5-1. The 4-2 Packers are third followed by the 4-3 Cowboys.

The wild cards are also easily gathered. The Niners have the first one and the Lions have the second. Here's the current NFC playoff picture:

Looking ahead to next week, nine of the twelve playoff positions are locked up. The Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks are all guaranteed to be leading their divisions at the end of week 8. Additionally the Broncos and 49ers are locked in as the top wild card on each side. And the Patriots will have a spot either the leader of the AFC East (if New England wins or the Jets lose) or the final wild card in the AFC.

If New England loses and the Jets win, New York will take over the lead in the East. Otherwise, if the Patriots and Jets both win, the Jets will keep the #6 seed. If New York loses, Miami takes the final wild card spot with a win. Otherwise it goes to the Chargers who will be off on a bye.

The NFC North will still be led by the Packers if they win or the Lions lose. Otherwise, Detroit will reclaim the top spot. If the Packers and Lions both win, Detroit keeps the final wild card spot. If at least one of them lose, Carolina takes the wild card spot with a win. If the Lions and Panthers both lose, the Bears take the spot. If Detroit wins and Green Bay and Carolina both lose, the spot goes to the Packers.

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 6

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

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AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	6.5%	11.5%	-3.2%	-6.0%
Miami Dolphins	23.5%	38.7%	-0.7%	+0.6%
New England Patriots	55.0%	69.6%	+10.7%	+10.5%
New York Jets	14.9%	26.2%	-6.8%	-9.0%

After last week's loss, this was exactly what the Patriots needed: a win against a tough foe while having no other winners in the division (the Dolphins were on a bye). New England is back over 50% for winning the division.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	26.7%	35.1%	-7.1%	-8.3%
Cincinnati Bengals	41.1%	53.5%	+11.3%	+12.1%
Cleveland Browns	22.6%	31.7%	-6.4%	-8.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.6%	13.1%	+2.2%	+3.5%

Baltimore and Cleveland stumbled this weekend giving Cincinnati the biggest boost of any team in regards to their chances of winning the division. The Steelers got their first win of the season, but it only gave them a minor bump in regards to winning the division or making the playoffs.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	17.5%	22.0%	-0.3%	-4.1%
Indianapolis Colts	52.4%	58.2%	+0.7%	-3.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.3%	5.0%	-0.3%	-1.1%
Tennessee Titans	25.8%	34.8%	-0.1%	-5.1%

Every team in the AFC South lost this past weekend, and they resulted in a minor increase for the division leading Colts.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	44.2%	82.2%	+1.1%	+8.9%
Kansas City Chiefs	45.5%	81.8%	+3.0%	+10.0%
Oakland Raiders	2.7%	12.0%	-4.2%	-7.3%
San Diego Chargers	7.6%	24.4%	+0.1%	+7.3%

At this point, Denver or Kansas City wins this division 90% of the time. Even with their win, the Chargers barely saw their division win percentage increase any.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	42.1%	50.4%	+7.8%	+8.5%
New York Giants	4.7%	5.6%	-3.0%	-3.8%
Philadelphia Eagles	41.7%	49.9%	+5.7%	+6.6%
Washington Redskins	11.5%	14.3%	-10.6%	-11.9%

The tight race between the Cowboys and Eagles will be broken up this weekend as the two face off. New York is running out of time to turn their season around.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	31.9%	50.6%	+1.6%	+5.7%
Detroit Lions	33.2%	53.2%	+1.3%	+4.6%
Green Bay Packers	28.6%	44.5%	+1.3%	+4.3%
Minnesota Vikings	6.3%	11.0%	-4.3%	-8.2%

The best three way race currently in the NFL is in the NFC North, and at the end of the year, one of the three teams is likely to be sitting at home out of the playoffs.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	8.3%	15.6%	+1.1%	-1.7%
Carolina Panthers	17.9%	28.4%	+5.5%	+6.0%
New Orleans Saints	68.8%	81.3%	-5.8%	-5.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.9%	7.5%	-0.8%	-4.5%

New Orleans still has the best "win your division" percentage even though they lost this past weekend. The Buccaneers have the best percentages of any of the "oh-fer" teams.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	12.1%	30.3%	-10.3%	-16.6%
San Francisco 49ers	24.7%	55.4%	+3.4%	+8.2%
Seattle Seahawks	48.8%	71.7%	+5.3%	+4.6%
St. Louis Rams	14.4%	30.2%	+1.6%	+4.0%

The Seahawks have a strong lead thanks to a game lead and a win over the 49ers. The NFC West is the only division that doesn't have a team that mostly out of the picture.

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The list of teams that might not win their division even if they win out has expanded to twelve. Even if the Raiders win out from here, they win their division less than two thirds of the time. Hurts to be four games plus have a loss to the two teams a top your division. However, the Chargers still win the division 99% of the time if they win out and they're three games back but haven't lost to either the Broncos or Chiefs. Interesting how much additional that game "and a half" hurts.

	Div Win
Oakland Raiders	63.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars	86.7%
New York Giants	87.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89.0%
Buffalo Bills	90.9%
Atlanta Falcons	96.3%
Minnesota Vikings	98.9%
San Diego Chargers	99.1%
Washington Redskins	99.5%
New York Jets	99.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.7%
Arizona Cardinals	99.7%

Additionally, the Jaguars and Giants have already started to see their chances of making the playoffs fall below 100% even if they win out. Jacksonville makes it in 98.6% of those scenarios whereas New York makes it 99.7% of the time they win out. So most likely either team would make the playoffs at 10-6, but there is a chance that they wouldn't.

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 6

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

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Week Six saw three changes in divisional leaders and three teams re-enter the picture after falling out previously. The NFL is now down to just two undefeated teams (both in the same division) and the Steelers found a way to get their first win.

Starting off in the AFC and with the East, it was a good weekend for New England as they were in the only team in the division to get a win (Miami was off for the weekend). The division is rankable by record: Patriots (5-1), Dolphins (3-2), Jets (3-3), then Bills (2-4).

As for the North, there was a three-way tie at the top last week but now the Bengals (who were last in tiebreakers) sit alone on the top. The Ravens and Browns are tied for second at 3-3: Baltimore has defeated Cleveland so they currently get the spot via the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 1-4 Steelers are at the bottom of the division.

Down South, it was a bad week for the division as every team in the division lost. Thus Indianapolis maintained their one game lead over Tennessee who also have a one game lead over the 2-4 Texans. Winless Jacksonville brings up the rear.

The West has the NFL's two remaining undefeated teams: Denver and Kansas City. The Broncos had the tiebreaker edge via divisional record coming into the week since they were the only one of the two to have played a divisional game. The Chiefs knocked off the Raiders this past weekend to tie up that tiebreaker. Kansas City has the lead over Denver in regards to common games (6-0-6 to 5-0-7 ... meaning that Denver has played an "uncommon" game while Kansas City has not), so they move into first. The Raiders and Chargers are tied at 2-4. Oakland has beaten San Diego, so they're currently third.

Ranking the division leaders, the Chiefs are obviously on top with their 6-0 record. The Patriots are second at 5-1. Cincinnati and Indianapolis are tied at 4-2. They haven't played this season, which makes conference record the deciding factor. The Bengals are 3-1 while the Colts are only 2-2, so Cincinnati has the edge for the #3 seed.

As for the wild cards, the Broncos have the first one by virtue of having the best record of teams in second. The Dolphins have the second wild card by having the next best record. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

Moving onto the NFC, the 3-3 Cowboys are tied with the 3-3 Eagles atop the East. They haven't played yet and are tied in division record (2-0), common games record (2-3), and conference record (3-0) so it comes down to strength of victory. Dallas has the lead in that regard 0.406 to 0.354, so they're currently tops in the division. The 1-4 Redskins are in third followed by the defeated 0-6 Giants.

Up North, Chicago and Detroit are tied at 4-2 and since the Lions won their first meeting of the year (the second is still to come), they are currently in first. Green Bay is third at 3-2 followed by 1-4 Minnesota.

As for the South, the Saints suffered their first loss of the year but they still lead Carolina (the division's only winner from the past weekend) by two and a half games. Third is the Falcons at 1-4 followed by the 0-5 Buccaneers.

Out West, Seattle still leads San Francisco by a game. Arizona (the division's only loser in week six) and St. Louis are tied at 3-3 for third, and the Rams won their week one encounter, so they get the spot.

The Saints and Seahawks are now tied for best record in the NFC. They haven't [yet - they will] faced off this season, so the head-to-head tiebreaker won't solve this tie. Four of Seattle's six games have been played against AFC teams, and as such, New Orleans has the better conference record (4-0-8 versus 2-0-10) at this point, so they get the #1 seed. Detroit has the next best record at 3-3, so they're #3 followed by Dallas.

As for the wild cards, the Bears and 49ers are tied for best record among second place teams. They haven't, and won't, play this season so this moves on to conference record to break the tie. San Francisco is 3-1 in the NFC while Chicago is 2-2, so the Niners get the #5 seed. No other team is 4-2 in the NFC, so the Bears get the final wild card spot. The NFC's playoff picture is currently:

Looking ahead to the Week 7 Playoff Picture, the Patriots, Colts, Saints, and Seahawks are all guaranteed to still be leading their respective divisions at the end of next week. As for the AFC North, the Bengals keep the lead with a win. Otherwise, the Ravens can take the spot with a win, and if Cincinnati and Baltimore both lose, Cleveland can take over. If all three of those teams lose, the Bengals keep the top spot. The AFC West lead stays with the Chiefs if they win or Denver loses otherwise the Broncos take the lead back. The leader of the NFC East will be decided by Dallas at Philadelphia with the winner taking it. And the NFC North will continue to belong to the Lions if they win. If Detroit stumbles, then Chicago takes it with a win. If both of them lose, Green Bay takes over with a win. If all three lose, the Lions keep the top spot.

The first AFC wild card goes to Kansas City or Denver. The second stays with Miami if they win. Otherwise (all of the following scenarios involve a Dolphin loss), the spot goes the the Ravens if they and the Bengals win (if Cincinnati doesn't win, then Baltimore moves into the divisional lead). If the Bengals lose, they get the spot if one and only one of the Ravens and Browns win (if both win, Cincinnati falls to third; if they both lose, the Bengals stay a top the division). If neither of those two previous scenarios happen, the Titans regain the position with a win. Cleveland takes the spot if they end the week second in the AFC North and Tennessee loses. The Jets can take the spot if the Ravens, Browns, and Titans all lose. If Baltimore, Cleveland, New York, and Tennessee all lose, San Diego can take the spot with a win. Finally, if Baltimore, Cleveland, New York, Miami, San Diego, and Tennessee all lose, the spot stays with the Dolphins.

On the NFC side, the 49ers keep a wild card spot with a win or a loss by at least one of the Bears, Lions, or Packers. Chicago keeps a wild card spot with a win and a win by Detroit (which keeps the Bears in second) or if they lose along with Arizona, Green Bay, and St. Louis. If the Bears, Cardinals, and Packers lose but the Rams win, the strength of victory tiebreaker will decide the final wild card spot between Chicago and St. Louis. The Packers take a wild card spot if they win unless the Lions and Bears both lose (making Green Bay the divisional leader) or if Chicago, Detroit, and San Francisco all win. The Lions get the final wild card spot if they lose, only one of the Bears or Packers win and the Cardinals lose unless the Rams also win. Arizona takes the #6 seed if they win, St. Louis loses, and at most only one of Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay wins. The Rams get the spot if they win, Arizona wins, Chicago loses, and Green Bay loses. As mentioned before, the strength of victory comes into play (between St. Louis and Chicago) if St. Louis wins and Arizona, Chicago, and Green Bay all lose.

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 5

With the exception of the two Souths where the Colts and Saints extended their leads, most of the races for the divisional leads are closer after week five than they were after week four. In addition, there are fewer teams on the "might not win their division if they win out" list (although we now have our first team that could miss the playoffs even if they won out - albiet it's a very small chance). What follows is an analysis of each team's playoff chances by randomly determining the outcome of the remaining games. As always, for each set of iterations, one team is picked to win out while another loses their remaining games.

AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	9.7%	17.5%	-1.7%	-7.6%
Miami Dolphins	24.2%	38.1%	-2.7%	-9.8%
New England Patriots	44.3%	59.2%	-3.7%	-8.4%
New York Jets	21.7%	35.2%	+8.1%	+8.6%

The Jets were the only team from the East to win this past weekend and got a nice bump in thier chances of winning the division as a result. Unfortunately, they've already suffered a loss to the Patriots this season which accounts for why their chances are lower than Miami's with whom they are tied record-wise. Buffalo is now one of eight teams whose chances of winning their division are below 10%.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	33.8%	43.5%	+0.9%	+5.0%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.8%	41.4%	+0.7%	+5.1%
Cleveland Browns	29.0%	39.8%	+0.5%	+5.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.5%	9.6%	-2.1%	-1.7%

The logjam at the top of the North continues with each of Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland winning this past weekend. Although on a bye, the Steelers saw both their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs dip slightly, and the Steelers are now one of three teams with a below 10% chance of making the playoffs.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	17.8%	26.0%	-4.9%	-7.8%
Indianapolis Colts	51.6%	62.2%	+12.8%	+11.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.7%	6.2%	-1.4%	-2.2%
Tennessee Titans	26.0%	39.8%	-6.5%	-10.4%

It was a big weekend for the Colts as they were the only team from the South to win and now control a game lead over the Titans. Indianapolis is one of only two teams that have over a 50% chance of winning their division. The overall chance of a wild card coming from the South decreased based on this past weekend, and now the division is the least likely to produce a wild card of any division in the AFC.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	43.1%	73.3%	+2.8%	+7.8%
Kansas City Chiefs	42.5%	71.9%	+3.2%	+9.4%
Oakland Raiders	7.0%	19.3%	+0.2%	+4.8%
San Diego Chargers	7.5%	17.1%	-6.1%	-8.9%

The AFC West truly showcases the differences between the haves and have-nots at this point in the season. The Chiefs made up a bit of ground percentage-wise on the Broncos in regards to winning the division since they defeated a conference foe while Denver took out an NFC opponent. The division leaders are second and third in rank for best chances of making the playoffs at this point.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	34.3%	41.8%	-7.1%	-8.1%
New York Giants	7.6%	9.4%	-4.4%	-5.6%
Philadelphia Eagles	36.0%	43.3%	+10.7%	+11.7%
Washington Redskins	22.1%	26.3%	+0.9%	+0.7%

With the best two teams in the NFC East sitting at 2-3, it's unlikely that a wild card will come from this division. The 0-5 Giants have the best chance of winning their division of any of the winless teams and could be considered lucky for playing in such a bad division.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	30.3%	44.9%	-2.9%	-9.5%
Detroit Lions	31.8%	48.6%	-8.5%	-11.0%
Green Bay Packers	27.2%	40.3%	+9.6%	+10.5%
Minnesota Vikings	10.7%	19.1%	+1.8%	+0.8%

Losses by both Chicago and Detroit have tightened up the race in this division. Even the resting Vikings saw their division winning odds go up based on those losses. Right now, the North has the best chance of capturing the second wild card.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	7.2%	17.2%	-3.5%	-6.0%
Carolina Panthers	12.4%	22.4%	-5.3%	-9.0%
New Orleans Saints	74.6%	87.2%	+9.2%	+7.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.8%	11.9%	-0.4%	+0.0%

New Orleans continues to run away with the division and will win the division in nearly ¾ of simulations. The Bucanners and Falcons have the two worst chances of winning thier division of all teams in the NFC.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	22.4%	46.9%	+4.7%	+10.2%
San Francisco 49ers	21.3%	47.3%	+5.0%	+9.0%
Seattle Seahawks	43.5%	67.1%	-12.2%	-7.6%
St. Louis Rams	12.8%	26.3%	+2.5%	+6.3%

Even with their loss, the Seahawks maintain a dominating lead in the West (nearly doubling the chances of winning the division compared to their closest rival). Of last place teams, St. Louis has the best chance of coming back and winning their division or making the playoffs. At this point, it's highly likely that at least one of the wild cards comes out of this division.

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As mentioned early, there are fewer teams on the "might not win their division even if they win out" list, but a few of the teams are nearing the 90% mark. Additionally we have our first team that could miss the playoffs even if they win out (Jacksonville), but they would still make it 99.98% of the time, so that's not all that likely. Here's the list of teams whose divisional title hopes are starting to slip away:

	Div Win
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	91.0%
Atlanta Falcons	91.7%
Oakland Raiders	97.3%
New York Giants	98.1%
Buffalo Bills	98.6%
San Diego Chargers	99.5%
Minnesota Vikings	99.8%
Carolina Panthers	99.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.9%

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With just under a third of the season completed, just about anything is still possible. Time is running out on those teams at the bottom and many will soon be forced to give up on this season and start using their remaining games to prepare for next year.