The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.4% | 2.9% | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.4% | 19.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% |
| New England Patriots | 74.6% | 86.4% | +4.1% | +3.4% |
| New York Jets | 16.6% | 36.7% | +0.9% | +4.7% |
It was a good week to be off for the AFC East. The two teams that had games lost increasing the likelihood that the Patriots, and to a lesser extent the Jets, would win the division. New York got some added benefits as the top challengers for the final wild card spot also all lost this past weekend.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 17.9% | 24.4% | +5.9% | +9.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 60.0% | -12.8% | -10.2% |
| Cleveland Browns | 21.6% | 26.9% | +3.0% | +3.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.5% | 12.4% | +3.9% | +4.7% |
Cincinnati's lead over every team in the division was cut by one this past weekend and their odds of winning the division dropped as a result. They still take it in half of the random simulations
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 3.9% | 5.6% | -0.7% | -1.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 74.8% | 78.8% | +1.1% | -1.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.2% | 1.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | 20.1% | 27.0% | -1.0% | -5.5% |
It was a bad weekend for the South as only the lowly Jaguars won. The futility aided the Colts cause as their odds of winning the division rose even though they lost. Their match up against the Titans on Thursday Night Football will either nearly lock up the division or extend the battle.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 39.0% | 93.1% | +8.7% | +9.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 60.2% | 98.0% | -5.0% | +1.1% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.0% | 9.4% | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.8% | 17.5% | -3.1% | -7.3% |
Week 11's game pitting Kansas City against Denver will go a long way in determining who takes the West. Both of those teams will surely make the playoffs. The Chargers have an outside chance of giving the West a wild card sweep in the AFC.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 47.8% | 51.1% | -9.7% | -11.8% |
| New York Giants | 10.2% | 11.8% | +2.8% | +2.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 32.1% | 39.3% | +11.3% | +11.3% |
| Washington Redskins | 9.8% | 10.8% | -4.3% | -5.8% |
The Cowboys and Eagles are tied atop the division at 5-5, but Dallas has a much better chance of winning the division based on having a head-to-head victory over Philly along with having an undefeated division record (the Eagles are 2-2 against the East). None of the teams are out of the divisional race, but there's little chance of any of them getting a wild card.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 17.9% | 30.6% | -14.9% | -16.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 54.5% | 67.2% | +20.9% | +16.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | 26.9% | 35.5% | -6.3% | -12.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.7% | 1.7% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
With their win this past weekend against Chicago, Detroit now has a commanding lead in the North although the Bears and Packers are only a game behind. Health-wise, the Lions are in the best shape of the three. Chicago and Green Bay are both currently on the outside of the wild card race also.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.4% | 3.0% | -2.2% | -3.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 37.4% | 68.6% | +2.0% | +12.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 62.2% | 84.9% | +0.3% | +6.4% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
After blowing away the division at the start of the season, the Saints now find the Panthers firmly on their heels. Both are favorites to make the playoffs as of right now. The rest of the division will have to regroup for next year.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.1% | 31.2% | -0.2% | +7.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13.1% | 59.5% | -10.5% | -12.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 83.1% | 96.8% | +10.8% | +3.9% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.7% | 7.9% | -0.1% | +1.9% |
Seattle is the team most likely to win their division at this point and second most likely to make the playoffs. San Francisco's loss to Carolina set them back quite a bit, but they are still likely to make the playoffs. The rest of the division is arguably more still in it than the bottom two from any other division.
There are 18 teams that might not win their division even if they win out (since there are 24 non-division leading teams, that means only 6 teams currently not leading their divisions are assured to take over if they win out). Of those 18, 12 might even miss the playoffs. Tampa Bay, by far, is the most dead and could be the first team to be "out of contention" after this coming weekend.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.6% | 5.6% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.6% | 98.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.1% | 67.9% |
| St. Louis Rams | 10.8% | 96.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16.0% | 41.8% |
| San Diego Chargers | 19.4% | 99.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 21.5% | 51.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 26.6% | 34.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46.9% | 100.0% |
| Houston Texans | 60.4% | 88.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 76.6% | 100.0% |
| New York Jets | 88.5% | 100.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 89.3% | 100.0% |
| New York Giants | 92.8% | 99.4% |
| Chicago Bears | 93.0% | 100.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 96.3% | 99.7% |
| Washington Redskins | 96.4% | 99.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 99.0% | 100.0% |
There are four teams that might make the playoffs or win their division even if they lose out. The Chiefs are the farthest along in locking up a playoff spot (a win against Denver will perhaps clinch one). The Seahawks could win the NFC West even with losing out, but it seems highly unlikely.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.0% | 56.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.6% | 40.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| New England Patriots | 0.6% | 0.7% |
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