The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.
Week Six saw three changes in divisional leaders and three teams re-enter the picture after falling out previously. The NFL is now down to just two undefeated teams (both in the same division) and the Steelers found a way to get their first win.
Starting off in the AFC and with the East, it was a good weekend for New England as they were in the only team in the division to get a win (Miami was off for the weekend). The division is rankable by record: Patriots (5-1), Dolphins (3-2), Jets (3-3), then Bills (2-4).
As for the North, there was a three-way tie at the top last week but now the Bengals (who were last in tiebreakers) sit alone on the top. The Ravens and Browns are tied for second at 3-3: Baltimore has defeated Cleveland so they currently get the spot via the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 1-4 Steelers are at the bottom of the division.
Down South, it was a bad week for the division as every team in the division lost. Thus Indianapolis maintained their one game lead over Tennessee who also have a one game lead over the 2-4 Texans. Winless Jacksonville brings up the rear.
The West has the NFL's two remaining undefeated teams: Denver and Kansas City. The Broncos had the tiebreaker edge via divisional record coming into the week since they were the only one of the two to have played a divisional game. The Chiefs knocked off the Raiders this past weekend to tie up that tiebreaker. Kansas City has the lead over Denver in regards to common games (6-0-6 to 5-0-7 ... meaning that Denver has played an "uncommon" game while Kansas City has not), so they move into first. The Raiders and Chargers are tied at 2-4. Oakland has beaten San Diego, so they're currently third.
Ranking the division leaders, the Chiefs are obviously on top with their 6-0 record. The Patriots are second at 5-1. Cincinnati and Indianapolis are tied at 4-2. They haven't played this season, which makes conference record the deciding factor. The Bengals are 3-1 while the Colts are only 2-2, so Cincinnati has the edge for the #3 seed.
As for the wild cards, the Broncos have the first one by virtue of having the best record of teams in second. The Dolphins have the second wild card by having the next best record. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:
Moving onto the NFC, the 3-3 Cowboys are tied with the 3-3 Eagles atop the East. They haven't played yet and are tied in division record (2-0), common games record (2-3), and conference record (3-0) so it comes down to strength of victory. Dallas has the lead in that regard 0.406 to 0.354, so they're currently tops in the division. The 1-4 Redskins are in third followed by the defeated 0-6 Giants.
Up North, Chicago and Detroit are tied at 4-2 and since the Lions won their first meeting of the year (the second is still to come), they are currently in first. Green Bay is third at 3-2 followed by 1-4 Minnesota.
As for the South, the Saints suffered their first loss of the year but they still lead Carolina (the division's only winner from the past weekend) by two and a half games. Third is the Falcons at 1-4 followed by the 0-5 Buccaneers.
Out West, Seattle still leads San Francisco by a game. Arizona (the division's only loser in week six) and St. Louis are tied at 3-3 for third, and the Rams won their week one encounter, so they get the spot.
The Saints and Seahawks are now tied for best record in the NFC. They haven't [yet - they will] faced off this season, so the head-to-head tiebreaker won't solve this tie. Four of Seattle's six games have been played against AFC teams, and as such, New Orleans has the better conference record (4-0-8 versus 2-0-10) at this point, so they get the #1 seed. Detroit has the next best record at 3-3, so they're #3 followed by Dallas.
As for the wild cards, the Bears and 49ers are tied for best record among second place teams. They haven't, and won't, play this season so this moves on to conference record to break the tie. San Francisco is 3-1 in the NFC while Chicago is 2-2, so the Niners get the #5 seed. No other team is 4-2 in the NFC, so the Bears get the final wild card spot. The NFC's playoff picture is currently:
Looking ahead to the Week 7 Playoff Picture, the Patriots, Colts, Saints, and Seahawks are all guaranteed to still be leading their respective divisions at the end of next week. As for the AFC North, the Bengals keep the lead with a win. Otherwise, the Ravens can take the spot with a win, and if Cincinnati and Baltimore both lose, Cleveland can take over. If all three of those teams lose, the Bengals keep the top spot. The AFC West lead stays with the Chiefs if they win or Denver loses otherwise the Broncos take the lead back. The leader of the NFC East will be decided by Dallas at Philadelphia with the winner taking it. And the NFC North will continue to belong to the Lions if they win. If Detroit stumbles, then Chicago takes it with a win. If both of them lose, Green Bay takes over with a win. If all three lose, the Lions keep the top spot.
The first AFC wild card goes to Kansas City or Denver. The second stays with Miami if they win. Otherwise (all of the following scenarios involve a Dolphin loss), the spot goes the the Ravens if they and the Bengals win (if Cincinnati doesn't win, then Baltimore moves into the divisional lead). If the Bengals lose, they get the spot if one and only one of the Ravens and Browns win (if both win, Cincinnati falls to third; if they both lose, the Bengals stay a top the division). If neither of those two previous scenarios happen, the Titans regain the position with a win. Cleveland takes the spot if they end the week second in the AFC North and Tennessee loses. The Jets can take the spot if the Ravens, Browns, and Titans all lose. If Baltimore, Cleveland, New York, and Tennessee all lose, San Diego can take the spot with a win. Finally, if Baltimore, Cleveland, New York, Miami, San Diego, and Tennessee all lose, the spot stays with the Dolphins.
On the NFC side, the 49ers keep a wild card spot with a win or a loss by at least one of the Bears, Lions, or Packers. Chicago keeps a wild card spot with a win and a win by Detroit (which keeps the Bears in second) or if they lose along with Arizona, Green Bay, and St. Louis. If the Bears, Cardinals, and Packers lose but the Rams win, the strength of victory tiebreaker will decide the final wild card spot between Chicago and St. Louis. The Packers take a wild card spot if they win unless the Lions and Bears both lose (making Green Bay the divisional leader) or if Chicago, Detroit, and San Francisco all win. The Lions get the final wild card spot if they lose, only one of the Bears or Packers win and the Cardinals lose unless the Rams also win. Arizona takes the #6 seed if they win, St. Louis loses, and at most only one of Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay wins. The Rams get the spot if they win, Arizona wins, Chicago loses, and Green Bay loses. As mentioned before, the strength of victory comes into play (between St. Louis and Chicago) if St. Louis wins and Arizona, Chicago, and Green Bay all lose.
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