With the exception of the two Souths where the Colts and Saints extended their leads, most of the races for the divisional leads are closer after week five than they were after week four. In addition, there are fewer teams on the "might not win their division if they win out" list (although we now have our first team that could miss the playoffs even if they won out - albiet it's a very small chance). What follows is an analysis of each team's playoff chances by randomly determining the outcome of the remaining games. As always, for each set of iterations, one team is picked to win out while another loses their remaining games.
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 9.7% | 17.5% | -1.7% | -7.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 24.2% | 38.1% | -2.7% | -9.8% |
| New England Patriots | 44.3% | 59.2% | -3.7% | -8.4% |
| New York Jets | 21.7% | 35.2% | +8.1% | +8.6% |
The Jets were the only team from the East to win this past weekend and got a nice bump in thier chances of winning the division as a result. Unfortunately, they've already suffered a loss to the Patriots this season which accounts for why their chances are lower than Miami's with whom they are tied record-wise. Buffalo is now one of eight teams whose chances of winning their division are below 10%.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 33.8% | 43.5% | +0.9% | +5.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 29.8% | 41.4% | +0.7% | +5.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 29.0% | 39.8% | +0.5% | +5.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5% | 9.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
The logjam at the top of the North continues with each of Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland winning this past weekend. Although on a bye, the Steelers saw both their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs dip slightly, and the Steelers are now one of three teams with a below 10% chance of making the playoffs.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 17.8% | 26.0% | -4.9% | -7.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 51.6% | 62.2% | +12.8% | +11.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.7% | 6.2% | -1.4% | -2.2% |
| Tennessee Titans | 26.0% | 39.8% | -6.5% | -10.4% |
It was a big weekend for the Colts as they were the only team from the South to win and now control a game lead over the Titans. Indianapolis is one of only two teams that have over a 50% chance of winning their division. The overall chance of a wild card coming from the South decreased based on this past weekend, and now the division is the least likely to produce a wild card of any division in the AFC.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 43.1% | 73.3% | +2.8% | +7.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 42.5% | 71.9% | +3.2% | +9.4% |
| Oakland Raiders | 7.0% | 19.3% | +0.2% | +4.8% |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5% | 17.1% | -6.1% | -8.9% |
The AFC West truly showcases the differences between the haves and have-nots at this point in the season. The Chiefs made up a bit of ground percentage-wise on the Broncos in regards to winning the division since they defeated a conference foe while Denver took out an NFC opponent. The division leaders are second and third in rank for best chances of making the playoffs at this point.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 34.3% | 41.8% | -7.1% | -8.1% |
| New York Giants | 7.6% | 9.4% | -4.4% | -5.6% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 36.0% | 43.3% | +10.7% | +11.7% |
| Washington Redskins | 22.1% | 26.3% | +0.9% | +0.7% |
With the best two teams in the NFC East sitting at 2-3, it's unlikely that a wild card will come from this division. The 0-5 Giants have the best chance of winning their division of any of the winless teams and could be considered lucky for playing in such a bad division.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 30.3% | 44.9% | -2.9% | -9.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 31.8% | 48.6% | -8.5% | -11.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 27.2% | 40.3% | +9.6% | +10.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.7% | 19.1% | +1.8% | +0.8% |
Losses by both Chicago and Detroit have tightened up the race in this division. Even the resting Vikings saw their division winning odds go up based on those losses. Right now, the North has the best chance of capturing the second wild card.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.2% | 17.2% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | 12.4% | 22.4% | -5.3% | -9.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 74.6% | 87.2% | +9.2% | +7.5% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.8% | 11.9% | -0.4% | +0.0% |
New Orleans continues to run away with the division and will win the division in nearly ¾ of simulations. The Bucanners and Falcons have the two worst chances of winning thier division of all teams in the NFC.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 22.4% | 46.9% | +4.7% | +10.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21.3% | 47.3% | +5.0% | +9.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 43.5% | 67.1% | -12.2% | -7.6% |
| St. Louis Rams | 12.8% | 26.3% | +2.5% | +6.3% |
Even with their loss, the Seahawks maintain a dominating lead in the West (nearly doubling the chances of winning the division compared to their closest rival). Of last place teams, St. Louis has the best chance of coming back and winning their division or making the playoffs. At this point, it's highly likely that at least one of the wild cards comes out of this division.
As mentioned early, there are fewer teams on the "might not win their division even if they win out" list, but a few of the teams are nearing the 90% mark. Additionally we have our first team that could miss the playoffs even if they win out (Jacksonville), but they would still make it 99.98% of the time, so that's not all that likely. Here's the list of teams whose divisional title hopes are starting to slip away:
| Div Win | |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 90.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 91.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 91.7% |
| Oakland Raiders | 97.3% |
| New York Giants | 98.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 98.6% |
| San Diego Chargers | 99.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 99.8% |
| Carolina Panthers | 99.8% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 99.9% |
With just under a third of the season completed, just about anything is still possible. Time is running out on those teams at the bottom and many will soon be forced to give up on this season and start using their remaining games to prepare for next year.
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