There are some decent match ups on this card, but I can't say that I'm all that excited for it. Not sure if that isn't more so because of UFC 160 next weekend or not. I would think after a few weeks off, that I'd be majorly craving some UFC.
| Lightweight Match [FX8-13] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 2.14 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #261 | Lucas Martins (12-1) | -269 | 0.80 | 2.94 |
| NR | Jeremy Larsen (8-3, 1 NC) | +215 | 4.60 | 6.74 |
Martins has the better record and has won more often via finish. Both have rarely fought fighters that I'm familiar with, and when they have, they've always lost. This fight isn't worth a lot of points making it a descent pick for an upset, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason to go that route otherwise. I'll take Martins.
| Flyweight Match [FX8-12] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 9.85 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FLW #18 | Jussier da Silva (14-2) | -143 | 6.89 | 16.74 |
| FLW #19 | Chris Cariaso (14-4) | +117 | 11.52 | 21.37 |
da Silva was expected to challenge for flyweight gold until he got derailed by Dodson. Cariaso had a nice streak going in the UFC until he tapped out to the current #1 contender Moraga. da Silva's only other loss came to Uncle Creepy, but his wins are against opponents I don't know. I'm going to buy the hype and expect him to roll to an easy victory here.
| Flyweight Match [FX8-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 6.29 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FLW #12 | John Lineker (20-6) | -146 | 4.31 | 10.60 |
| NR | Azamat Gashimov (7-2) | +120 | 7.55 | 13.84 |
This will be Gashimov's flyweight debut, and he didn't last long in his sole UFC fight. Lineker is 1-1 in the UFC's flyweight division, and while he's unlikely to contend for the belt, he's likely to serve well as a gatekeeper. In this fight, he'll prove that Azamat doesn't belong.
| Light Heavyweight Match [FX8-10] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 6.77 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #53 | Roger Hollett (13-4) | +199 | 13.47 | 20.24 |
| LHW #96 | Fabio Maldonado (18-6) | -250 | 2.71 | 9.48 |
Maldonado has lost three in a row in the UFC starting off with a decision loss to Kyle Kingsbury (which I would have thought to result in automatic walking papers). Hollett's had just one fight in the UFC: a loss to the returning Matt Hamill. If "The Hulk" can avoid the big shot from Fabio, I think we may see the upset here.
| Bantamweight Match [FX8-09] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 9.54 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| BW #9 | Iuri Alcantara (27-4, 1 NC) | -508 | 1.88 | 11.42 |
| BW #65 | Iliarde Santos (27-6-1, 1 NC) | +359 | 34.25 | 43.79 |
Santos is the second biggest underdog on the FX 8 card and is riding a six fight win streak heading into his octogon debut. Alcantara is coming off of a BS no contest which was preceeded by a loss that ended his 13 fight win streak. Alcantara has a chance to be part of the next wave of challengers at 135, and I don't see Santos breaking his momentum.
| Welterweight Match [FX8-08] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 6.02 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #68 | Paulo Thiago (14-5) | -164 | 3.67 | 9.69 |
| WW #114 | Michel Richard dos Prazeres (16-0) | +137 | 8.25 | 14.27 |
Thiago has hit a rough patch in his UFC career dropping 4 of his last 5. dos Prazeres debuts in the UFC sporting a perfect 16-0 record, but I'm uncertain about the difficulty of the competition. Paulo needs this victory, but he seems to have lost his touch, and I see the underdog picking up the upset here.
| Lightweight Match [FX8-07] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 7.61 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #22 | Gleison Tibau (26-9) | -215 | 3.54 | 11.15 |
| LW #127 | John Cholish (8-2) | +173 | 13.17 | 20.78 |
At this point in his career, Tibau has mostly been relagated to being a gatekeeper. Cholish started off his UFC career on the right foot with a TKO victory, but then lost to Castillo by being a bit hestitant. Tibau ought to be able to control the action on the feet and defend against any submission attempts John is able to throw at him and grind out a decision.
| Lightweight Match [FX8-06] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 5.75 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #62 | Francisco Trinaldo (12-2) | -341 | 1.69 | 7.44 |
| LW #154 | Mike Rio (9-1) | +259 | 14.89 | 20.64 |
Trinaldo is a fairly big favorite in this matchup and has losses to a few of the fighters fighting before him on this card. Both fighters are coming off of submission victories. If Rio makes use of his wrestling advantage, I think we could see the upset here.
| Featherweight Match [FX8-05] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 11.15 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #10 | Nik Lentz (23-5-2, 1 NC) | -144 | 7.74 | 18.89 |
| FW #22 | Hacran Dias (21-1-1) | +117 | 13.05 | 24.20 |
After things started to fall apart at lightweight, Lentz made the move down to featherweight and is now riding a two fight win streak. Dias has only lost once in his career but has only had one fight in the UFC to date. Dias has the tools to counter Lentz strengths and will likely end "The Carny's" current run.
| Middleweight Match [FX8-04] | ||||
| FX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 9.50 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #66 | Rafael Natal (15-4-1) | -330 | 2.88 | 12.38 |
| MW #172 | Joao Zeferino (13-4) | +256 | 24.32 | 33.82 |
In my opinion, Natal is overconfident in his abilities and careless which gives his opponents extra openings. He does have quite a bit of skill though. Zeferino is riding a seven fight win streak (a nice rebound from starting 1-3) but is largely untested. Calling the upset and getting it would pick me up some needed points here, but I just don't think Joao is the right kind of fighter to take advantage of Rafael's lapses in judgement.
| Lightweight Match [FX8-03] | ||||
| FX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 15.08 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #12 | Rafael dos Anjos (18-6) | -191 | 7.90 | 22.98 |
| LW #21 | Evan Dunham (14-3) | +160 | 24.13 | 39.21 |
Both fighters have similar resumes and are a level below the contenders in the lightweight division. This fight is likely to stay on the feet as both fighters wrestling/grappling are likely to cancel the others out. I could see this fight going either way, and as such, I'll take the underdog for the value pick.
| Middleweight Match [FX8-02] | ||||
| FX / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 15.32 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #9 | Ronaldo Souza (17-3, 1 NC) | -568 | 2.70 | 18.02 |
| MW #30 | Chris Camozzi (19-5) | +416 | 63.73 | 79.05 |
This was suppose to be Souza versus Costas Philippou but an injury resulted in Camozzi taking this fight as a late replacement. As such, Camozzi is the biggest underdog on the card. And while he's riding a four fight win streak in the UFC, I don't think with a full training camp, that Chris would have much for the former Strikeforce middleweight champion. Jacare takes this one with ease.
| Middleweight Match [FX8-01] | ||||
| FX / Main Card / Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 17.73 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #2 | Vitor Belfort (22-10) | +101 | 17.91 | 35.64 |
| MW #4 | Luke Rockhold (10-1) | -126 | 14.07 | 31.80 |
This time around in the UFC, Vitor has only lost to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones - two of the top guys in the organization. Rockhold is the last Strikeforce middleweight champion, and this bout will give us a clue into where he's going to land rankings wise in the UFC. Strikeforce veterens have been getting the better of their UFC counterparts so far, but I think this one's going to be an upset in the opposite direction. "The Phenom" will TKO Rockhold and put himself back in line for another title shot.
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