At the start of February, the UFC starting publishing media voted fighter rankings. At that time, I wrote a post comparing the UFC's rankings with those of Fight Matrix which uses a computer program to rank fighters. At the time I used a set of rules for determining who got the next title fight and who would take part in the next #1 contender match. Those rules were:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
At the time, I broke down the rankings division-by-division to identify the next title contender and #1 contenders match participants for each division based on both of the rankings. Fighters don't fight enough to require reviewing that frequently, but I thought breaking down each division might be. As such, I've decided to do a division-by-division look at what I think should happen next. Along with the UFC and Fight Matrix rankings mentioned above, I'll also be using the rankings from Sherdog and MMA Weekly: two sites I also frequently visit for MMA news. I'll be combining the rankings from the four to get a "unified" ranking.
A few caveats must be noted before I proceed. The UFC rankings essentially have the champion at position 0. I'll be considering the champion rank 1 and move down the other fighters in the rankings respectively. The other rankings include non-UFC fighters. For Fight Matrx, the rankings are deep enough to grab a UFC top 10. Sherdog includes an "other contenders" section. In the event the top 10 includes non-UFC fighters, the "other contenders" from the UFC will be considered as tied for the bottom spot(s) and will split points accordingly. For Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, the actual ranking position will be noted when it doesn't match the used position.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 03/18/2013 | 03/17/2013 | 03/18/2013 | 03/20/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Demetrious Johnson | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Joseph Benavidez | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | John Dodson | 3 | (2) | 4 | (5) | 4 | 3 | ||||||
| 4. | Ian McCall | 4 | (3) | 5 | (6) | 3 | 5 | ||||||
| 5. | John Moraga | 5 | (4) | 3 | (4) | 8 | (9) | 4 | |||||
| 6. | Jussier Da Silva | 6 | (5) | 9 | (16) | 5 | 6 | ||||||
| 7. | Louis Gaudinot | 7 | (6) | 6 | (7) | 7 | (8) | ||||||
| 8. | John Lineker | 10 | (9) | 7 | (11) | 7 | (8) | 8 | (9) | ||||
| 9. | Darren Uyenoyama | 9 | (8) | 6 | (7) | ||||||||
| 10. | Chris Cariaso | 8 | (7) | 10 | (17) | 9 | (OC) | ||||||
| Tim Elliott | 8 | (13) | 9 | (10) | |||||||||
Matches I'd Make
John Moraga is the highest ranked fighter who qualifies to challenge the champion, so he gets the next crack at Demetrious Johnson. Louis Gaudinot and John Lineker are the highest ranked fighters who qualify to fight for the #1 contender position, however, they've recently fought and Gaudinot won, so I'd match up Gaudinot with Darren Uyenoyama instead. Lineker instead will get Joseph Benavidez who's trying to work his way back to another title shot. The #3 and #4 fighters, John Dodson and Ian McCall, are coming off of losses to the top two and getting one of them back on the right track is key, so I'd have them face off. That leaves two other fighters coming off of losses, Jussier Da Silva and Chris Cariaso, so they also face off. Tim Elliott gets the final flyweight on the roster, Phil Harris. The shallow nature of the division makes match-making difficult, so hopefully the UFC will sign more flyweights soon.
Matches the UFC has Made
Moraga was set to get the title shot until Johnson had to pull out due to injury. Mighty Mouse wants to return in August and hopes the UFC holds Moraga for him. The UFC has matched up Benavidez with Uyenoyama for the FOX card in April in what I'm guessing will be the #1 contender's match. Da Silva is matched against Cariaso and Lineker welcomes bantonweight Azamat Gashimov to the division at the FX card in May.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Neither Dodson nor McCall has an opponent, so I'll leave my match up between "The Magician" and "Uncle Creepy" intact. That just leaves Gaudinot, Elliott, and Harris. If the UFC signs a quality flyweight to the roster, I'd say match him up with Gaudinot otherwise have Gaudinot and Elliott face off.
The newness of the flyweight divisions means there's a large number of combinations that haven't happened, but there's a distinct top tier to the division, and Johnson has beaten each of them. I think we're going to see title rematches earlier than desired while some new contenders develop unless the UFC gets active in adding to the roster.
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