The "long awaited" Georges St. Pierre versus Nick Diaz match is finally here. I don't expect the fight to live up to the hype, but hopefully I will be proved wrong. I'm much more interested in the co-main event between Condit and Hendricks. Ellenberger/Marquardt could be good, but the other two fights on the PPV are not appealing. The FX card has some potential though.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC158-12] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 4.69 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #61 | George Roop (12-9-1) | +115 | 5.39 | 10.08 |
| BW #165 | Reuben Duran (8-4-1) | -144 | 3.26 | 7.95 |
After a less than successful run at featherweight, Roop makes his bantanweight debut. He did have an impressive KO victory over the Korean Zombie and fared well against Hatsu Hioki. Duran has been so-so so far in the UFC. This is likely a loser gets cut match. Although the underdog, I think Roop's been more impressive, and as long as the additional weight cut doesn't hurt him, he ought to be able to get this one.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC158-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 5.07 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| BW #51 | T.J. Dillashaw (6-1) | -524 | 0.97 | 6.04 |
| BW #158 | Issei Tamura (7-3) | +374 | 18.96 | 24.03 |
Dillashaw is the biggest favorite on the card (surprisingly since I would have expected it to be GSP). I don't see Tamura being anything other than a stepping stone for the former TUF runner up.
| Welterweight Match [UFC158-10] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 7.22 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #37 | Rick Story (14-6) | -375 | 1.93 | 9.15 |
| WW #61 | Quinn Mulhern (18-2) | +291 | 21.01 | 28.23 |
Story's hit a rough patch in the UFC dropping 3 of his last 4. Mulhern is making his octogan debut stepping in for the injured Sean Pierson. I think Story's likely to win this one, but with Mulhern's submission skills, there's a chance he'll pull off the upset. I think Mulhern wins this one more than one out of three times, and as such, I'll take him.
| Lightweight Match [UFC158-09] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 9.25 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #50 | John Makdessi (10-2) | +156 | 14.43 | 23.68 |
| LW #78 | Daron Cruickshank (12-2) | -185 | 5.00 | 14.25 |
This should be an entertaining fight that should see TUF alum Cruickshank continue his unbeaten streak in the UFC.
| Welterweight Match [UFC158-08] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 11.47 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #19 | Jordan Mein (26-8) | -257 | 4.46 | 15.93 |
| WW #49 | Dan Miller (14-6, 1 NC) | +203 | 23.28 | 34.75 |
This is the UFC debut for Mein while Miller has had 11 fights in the octogon. Miller's losses in the UFC have all been to top tier middleweight fighters. While Mein likely has a bright future in front of him, Miller's experience will pay off as he'll he able to stifle Mein's offensive.
| Featherweight Match [UFC158-07] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 11.92 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #17 | Darren Elkins (15-2) | -237 | 5.03 | 16.95 |
| FW #40 | Antonio Carvalho (15-5) | +186 | 22.17 | 34.09 |
Both are on win steaks, although Elkins has been twice as long. Neither has really faced the "cream of the crop" yet, but Elkins has the slightly more impressive history. I don't think this one will be close.
| Middleweight Match [UFC158-06] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 7.47 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #52 | Patrick Cote (18-8) | -180 | 4.15 | 11.62 |
| NR | Bobby Voelker (24-8) | +150 | 11.21 | 18.68 |
It's hard to think that Cote once "challenged" Anderson Silva for the middleweight championship. He hasn't looked good in his return to the UFC, and loss here will probably send him back to the sidelines. This is really Voelker's first time on the big stage and is a Strikeforce transplant. The Strikeforce fighters have done better than [I] expected so far, and this match up looks like another one that may go their way.
| Lightweight Match [UFC158-05] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 10.16 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #266 | Colin Fletcher (8-2) | +224 | 22.76 | 32.92 |
| WW #372 | Mike Ricci (7-3) | -276 | 3.68 | 13.84 |
Both fighters are TUF runner ups. Ricci is moving back down to his normal weight class, and after faring well against larger competition on TUF, that should help him get back into the win column.
| Middleweight Match [UFC158-04] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 16.29 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #32 | Nick Ring (13-1) | -117 | 13.92 | 30.21 |
| MW #37 | Chris Camozzi (18-5) | -106 | 15.37 | 31.66 |
Camozzi fought in his UFC debut at the first UFC event I attended live. I was not impressed. He's on a three fight win streak in the UFC since. I'm not a fan of Nick "The Promise" Ring (nor his nickname), and I felt he lost in his last fight against Court McGee. The line for this fight is really close and I think getting this one right will play a big role in whether or not I finish near the top or bottom for the night. Based on recent record, I'm going to go with Camozzi.
| Welterweight Match [UFC158-03] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 18.96 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #6 | Jake Ellenberger (28-6) | -166 | 11.42 | 30.38 |
| WW #12 | Nate Marquardt (32-11-2) | +140 | 26.54 | 45.50 |
Poor Jake. He was originally scheduled to face off against Hendricks in what would likely have been the #1 contender's match (not that the UFC is honoring those so much). Now he gets Marquardt who was banned from the UFC, became Strikeforce welterweight champion, and then dropped the belt on the final Strikeforce card. Ellenberger is the better fighter and will start stronger and should get the victory if he doesn't gas out. I'll bet that he doesn't tire out.
| Welterweight Match [UFC158-02] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 20.29 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #2 | Johny Hendricks (14-1) | -137 | 14.81 | 35.10 |
| WW #3 | Carlos Condit (28-6) | +112 | 22.72 | 43.01 |
Condit is my favorite UFC fighter. Those two probably would have faced off sooner if the WEC didn't get folded into the UFC when it did. "The Natural Born Killer" is the more complete fighter, but Hendricks probably has more power. However, power doesn't get the job done against a good chin or an elusive chin. Carlos has both. War Condit!
| Welterweight Match [UFC158-01] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship | ||||
| Match Points: 23.60 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #1 | Georges St. Pierre (23-2) | -485 | 4.87 | 28.47 |
| WW #7 | Nick Diaz (26-8, 1 NC) | +366 | 86.38 | 109.98 |
While I'd love to see GSP put an obsolute beating on Diaz, I expect this to be a methodically 5 round "humping". Not much more to say about this one.
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