My UFC on FuelTV 7 Fight Picks

I find it hard to get too excited about a fight card on Fuel, but the headlining interim title fight should be a good one. The co-main event could be interesting too, but the rest of the card I could probably miss [watching] and not be bummed about it. I probably put too much effort in trying to make picks for the prelim fights where I didn't know much about either of the fighters. I'm pretty far behind in my fantasy league (~200 points behind first), so I'm going to need a few good cards of picks to catch up.

Flyweight Match [FUEL7-12]
N/A
Match Points: 6.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FLW #53	Ulysses Gomez (9-3)	-240	2.78	9.45
FLW #59	Phil Harris (21-10, 1 NC)	+193	12.87	19.54

Both fighters have lost their only UFC fight and were finished in the process.  Both have the majority of their wins by submission, but only Harris has lost via submission (five times).  Thus I'll take the favorite

Bantamweight Match [FUEL7-11]
N/A
Match Points: 5.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #58	Motonobu Tezuka (19-5-4)	+169	8.75	13.93
BW #124	Vaughan Lee (12-8-1)	-203	2.55	7.73

Lee is 1-2 in the UFC but that's better than Tezuka's 0-1 start (a split decision loss to "Bruce Leroy").  Looking over Motonobu's history, I cannot say that I'm impressed: way too many victories via decision.  Vaughan's a finisher, and this one won't go the full three rounds.

Middleweight Match [FUEL7-10]
N/A
Match Points: 7.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #31	Stanislav Nedkov (12-0, 1 NC)	+101	7.75	15.42
MW #55	Tom Watson (15-5)	-127	6.04	13.71

Nedkov is a "perfect" 12-0, but only because his loss to Thiago Silva was overturned due to a failed drug test.  This will be his first fight at middleweight.  Watson is, uh, British.  Not sure I know much else about him.  He's on his home turf, but this seems like a good fight to take the underdog.

Featherweight Match [FUEL7-09]
N/A
Match Points: 2.76
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #179	Josh Grispi (14-4)	-136	2.03	4.79
FW #195	Andy Ogle (8-2)	+110	3.04	5.80

Grispi is an odd case.  He was 4-0 in the WEC with some quality wins.  He's gone 0-3 against former WEC-ers in the UFC and is probably fighting to keep his job.  Ogle lost his UFC debut against a fighter I don't recognize and all of his pre-UFC fights were in promotions I don't recognize.  This looks like a solid opportunity for "The Fluke" to right his ship. 

Lightweight Match [FUEL7-08]
N/A
Match Points: 7.22
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #44	Paul Sass (13-1)	-117	6.17	13.39
LW #52	Danny Castillo (14-5)	-109	6.62	13.84

Sass was perfect up until his last fight when he was surprisingly caught in a submission by Wiman.  Castillo is always game, but he has consistency issues.  His two last losses came to a couple of Sass's victims, and while the transitive property doesn't really work in MMA, I still think Sass will have "Last Call's" number.

Lightweight Match [FUEL7-07]
N/A
Match Points: 2.09
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #289	Terry Etim (15-4)	-315	0.66	2.75
NR	Renee Forte (7-2)	+254	5.31	7.40

Other than the headliner, Etim is the largest favorite on this card, and after the knockout he took in his last fight, he could certainly use the bounce back win.  Forte lost his UFC debut to a fighter I don't recognize, and while it's not worth much in the way of points, I'm going to have to go with Etim.

Welterweight Match [FUEL7-06]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 9.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #62	Che Mills (15-5, 1 NC)	-215	4.27	13.45
WW #66	Matt Riddle (7-3, 1 NC)	+174	15.97	25.15

I don't like Riddle: I find him inconsistent and annoying.  He has fought all of his professional fights in the UFC.  Mills hasn't impressed me in his UFC career, and he seems like a guy who's ripe for getting upset.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL7-05]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 12.60
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #16	Ryan Jimmo (17-1)	+173	21.80	34.40
LHW #26	James Te Huna (15-5)	-213	5.92	18.52

Both have a knockout win over Anthony Perosh although Jimmo's was in just 7 seconds.  Te Huna has more UFC experience, and I don't recognize many of "Big Deal's" victory.  Add to that the fact that Ryan wins most often by decision, and I think going with Te Huna is the way to go.

Welterweight Match [FUEL7-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 10.78
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #23	Jorge Santiago (25-10)	+197	21.24	32.02
WW #64	Gunnar Nelson (10-0-1)	-246	4.38	15.16

Santiago's two previous runs in the UFC have not gone well.  Will the third time be the charm?  Other than a draw in his first fight, Nelson has been perfect and never gone to decision.  That's the type of fighter I like to go with.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL7-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 11.24
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #34	Cyrille Diabate (19-8-1)	+188	21.13	32.37
LHW #36	Jimi Manuwa (12-0)	-234	4.80	16.04

Manuwa has the prettier record, but Diabate has more UFC experience.  I'm going to go with Jimi based on his record of finishing fights.

Featherweight Match [FUEL7-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 13.83
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #8	Cub Swanson (18-5)	-132	10.48	24.31
FW #21	Dustin Poirier (13-2)	+106	14.66	28.49

Both guys have been doing well in the UFC although Swanson has been facing tougher competition.  I think Cub is the better all-around fighter at this point (Poirier still has time to improve and will) and will likely get the win.

Bantamweight Match [FUEL7-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 18.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #1	Renan Barao (29-1, 1 NC)	-320	5.83	24.50
BW #6	Michael McDonald (15-1)	+250	46.68	65.35

I've picked two straight upsets in title fights, and have been wrong both times.  Do I dare pick a third?  Both guys are young (Barao is 25; McDonald is 22).  With that said, it's impressive that Barao has almost twice as many fights, and that both guys have already had this many.  These guys have the potential to be matched up many times if the heads up record stays close to even.  I guess in the end, the match up feels closer than the odds have it, and as such, I'll gamble on the 'dog.