My UFC 156 Fight Picks

I did better last week than the previous and hopefully that momentum carries through UFC 156. The first PPV of the year has a solid main card and should be quite entertaining.

Bantamweight Match [UFC156-11]
N/A
Match Points: 7.00
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #36	Edwin Figueroa (9-1)	+255	17.85	24.85
BW #70	Francisco Rivera (8-2, 1 NC)	-319	2.19	9.19

With Figueroa's only loss coming to interim title challenger Michael McDonald, it's surprising to see him such a big dog in this fight. Could be that his last win was aided by a two point deduction from a couple of hard shots to the groin. Rivera's last fight/win in the UFC was overturned to a No Contest when he failed his drug test (banned over-the-counter stimulant). Other than the decision loss to McDonald and the two point deduction victory over Caceres, Figueroa has done well (and come on, he got kicked hard in the nuts twice). At this much of the underdog, Edwin is definitely a value pick.

Bantamweight Match [UFC156-10]
N/A
Match Points: 6.16
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #82	Dustin Kimura (9-0)	+137	8.44	14.60
BW #50	Chico Camus (12-3)	-163	3.78	9.94

Kimura has a perfect 9-0 record coming into this fight, but that record was built at featherweight. This will be his first inside the octagon and at his new weight class of 135. This will be Camus's second fight in the UFC where he is undefeated. The situation seems right for him to stay that way.

Lightweight Match [UFC156-09]
FX
Match Points: 10.73
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #27	Yves Edwards (42-18-1)	-240	4.47	15.20
LW #59	Isaac Vallie-Flagg (13-3-1)	+190	20.39	31.12

Edwards has 61(!) professional fights well more than 3x the amount Vallie-Flagg has and is having a pretty good run in the UFC since returning to the organization in 2010. Issac hasn't lost since 2007, but he hasn't fought nearly as tough of competition as the "Thugjitsu Master". I think this is going to be a rough welcome to the UFC for Vallie-Flagg.

Lightweight Match [UFC156-08]
FX
Match Points: 10.45
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #25	Jacob Volkmann (15-3)	-353	2.96	13.41
LW #72	Bobby Green (19-5)	+276	28.84	39.29

I just noticed that this is the second of three "UFC vs Strikeforce" fights that will lead off the prelimenary card. I've mentioned it before, but I think Volkmann's nickname of "Christmas" is pretty lame. I'm not familiar with Bobby Green nor many of his opponents, and as such, I'll stick with the known fighter.

Welterweight Match [UFC156-07]
FX
Match Points: 12.58
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #20	Jay Hieron (23-6)	+132	16.61	29.19
WW #22	Tyron Woodley (10-1)	-158	7.96	20.54

Hieron is 0-3 in the UFC (two of those fights were over 7 years ago). He got hot near the end of 2007 and reeled off 10 wins in a row before losing by split decision in a Bellator welterweight championship fight. Woodley started his career with a 10 fight win streak that ended in a Strikeforce welterweight championship fight. I saw that fight, and he definitely seemed outclassed by a very tough Nate Marquardt. Woodley looks like a beast, but I think Hieron's experience is going to be trouble for him, so I'm going with "The Thoroughbred" for a UFC sweep.

Lightweight Match [UFC156-06]
FX
Match Points: 12.09
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #20	Gleison Tibau (26-8)	-128	9.45	21.54
LW #32	Evan Dunham (13-3)	+102	12.33	24.42

Dunham started off hot in the UFC, but after a questionable split decision loss to Sean Sherk, he's been on the decline.Tibau's had a pretty good run as of late, and although the Vegas line is starting to shift towards this being an even match, I still think Tibau has the edge.

Flyweight Match [UFC156-05]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 19.53
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FLW #3	Joseph Benavidez (16-3)	-249	7.84	27.37
FLW #6	Ian McCall (11-3-1)	+204	39.84	59.37

Benavidez was a force at 135 only losing twice with both coming to current titleholder Dominick Cruz. His one loss at flyweight (split decision) was to the current titleholder. McCall, in my opinion, was robbed in his first bout with Johnson but was sounded defeated in the second. "Uncle Creepy" was considered the best flyweight in the world prior to the UFC adding the division, but now there's new blood at the weight class, and he's going to find it a lot more crowded at the top. Benavidez is going to prove to be too much for Ian, and the UFC is going to have to decide if it's too soon for a title rematch.

Welterweight Match [UFC156-04]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 18.78
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #7	Demian Maia (17-4)	+154	28.92	47.70
WW #14	Jon Fitch (24-4-1, 1 NC)	-181	10.38	29.16

Fitch has long been a thorn in the side of contenders trying to rise up the welterweight ranks as he is a master of lay-and-pray ground-and-pound. Maia was a title contender at 185 and his 4 losses came to the champion, a former title contender, a future title contender, and Munoz. If Demain wants to get a shot at the title at 170, he's going to have to get through Fitch. Fitch's typical take down and top control won't be as effective against Maia who has a strong submission game. I think this matchup is closer than the odds, and as such, I'll take the underdog.

Heavyweight Match [UFC156-03]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 19.46
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #3	Alistair Overeem (36-11, 1 NC)	-383	5.08	24.54
HW #7	Antonio Silva (17-4)	+300	58.38	77.84

Overeem hasn't lost since 2007 although for being a top heavyweight he hasn't faced a lot of top competition. Silva is coming off a big win against up-and-comer Travis Browne although Browne got injured early in the match. Big Foot didn't fare well against Cormier or Velasquez although those two were the top heavyweights from Strikeforce and the UFC. A win by Overeem sets up a match I've been waiting for: a UFC Champ getting to take out the "Demolition Man". I don't know that Silva is this big of an underdog, but I'm still pretty sure Overeem will win.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC156-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 19.48
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #3	Rashad Evans (17-2-1)	-480	4.06	23.54
LHW #15	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5)	+369	71.88	91.36

Evans' only losses have come in title fights and is rumored to be considering the drop to middleweight to take on Anderson Silva. A loss to Nogueira surely would spoil those plans. "Minotoro" hasn't fought since the end of 2011 and doesn't tend to fare well against top 10 competition. I don't see him having the tools needed to beat Rashad.

Featherweight Match [UFC156-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 23.93
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #2	Frankie Edgar (15-3-1)	+179	42.83	66.76
FW #1	Jose Aldo (21-1)	-219	10.93	34.86

Since his arrival in the WEC, Jose Aldo has ruled the featherweight division. Prior to winning the title, he won the majority of his fights by (T)KO, but 3 of his 5 title defenses have gone to decision. Edgar ruled the lightweight division for a couple years as an undersized lightweight, won't be as outsized at featherweight, and mostly wins by decision. This one is likely to go the distance and will likely be close. Odds-wise that means I should go with the underdog. However, I expect most of the other players in the league to pick Edgar. Which means I'd likely have the opportunity to make up ground by going with Aldo. Or I could fall farther behind. At this point, I think it's safer to go with the numbers and Edgar.