With two weeks to go in the season, seven of the twelve playoff spots have been claimed: Green Bay and San Francisco join the ranks of teams locked in: the Packers will win the North while the 49ers are just guaranteed to make the playoffs. Houston has upgraded to being locked in as divisional winner. 4 more teams have been eliminated: Buffalo, New York [Jets], Cleveland, and Tampa Bay.
My crowning of Baltimore as a playoff team was "premature" in that my program ignores the possiblity of games ending in an tie. I'm ok with this since ties are infrequent (and lame).
| AFC East | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| New England Patriots | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.3% | 0.0% |
| New York Jets | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.9% | 0.0% |
The loss to the Niners cost the Patriots a spot in the AFC playoff seeding and could result in New England having to play a game in the Wild Card round most likely against whichever team finishes second in the North. With as bad as they looked last night, it's surprising that the Jets were able to stay in the playoff conversation for so long. Miami has to win out, have Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week 16, have both of those teams lose in Week 17, and have the Jets lose one more game to get in.
| AFC North | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24% | 100.0% | 79.3% | 0.0% | -12.7% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 100% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 61.1% | 14.0% | 22.5% | 9.8% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 100% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 36.6% | 6.6% | -11.3% | 2.9% |
| Cleveland Browns | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% | 0.0% |
The best the Raven's can now do is capture the #3 seed, but with the way things are going, I expect they'll fall to a Wild Card as the Bengals take over the division. Other than the recently eliminated Browns, everyone "controls their own destiny" and will make the playoffs if they win out. The Week 16 matchup between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is one of the biggest games left this year. The Week 17 matchup between the Ravens and Bengals will be huge if Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh in the aforementioned game.
| AFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Houston Texans | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 22.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 100% | 0% | 99% | 0% | 99.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% | -22.6% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Texan's can be no worse than the #3 seed in the AFC and with one more win will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Colts just need to win one of their last two to secure a playoff spot.
| AFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Denver Broncos | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 0.0% |
The Broncos can end up no worse than #3 in the AFC and still have a shot at the top spot. The AFC West is the first division to have all of it's non-division leaders eliminated from contention.
| NFC East | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Washington Redskins | 100% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 59.7% | 44.2% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 46.6% | 43.7% | 13.1% | 16.6% |
| New York Giants | 100% | 49% | 0% | 0% | 44.1% | 12.1% | -27.4% | -33.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The NFC East is the only division where none of the teams have secured a playoff spot, however, all three of the teams are gauranteed to make the playoffs if they win out, and Washington and Dallas are guaranteed to win the division if they win out. The Redskins and Cowboys face off in Week 17 in what could be the deciding game for the East. The divisional winner is likely to be the NFC's #4 but there's an outside chance at the #3. The #2 team from the division should be a strong candidate for a Wild Card although the 'Boys seem to be behind on tiebreakers to most of the other potential Wild Card team. Unfortunately for the Giants, the Cowboys currently have the tiebreaker between those two.
| NFC North | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Green Bay Packers | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 12.0% | 23.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 90% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 35.8% | 0.0% | 12.1% | -7.2% |
| Chicago Bears | 73% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23.7% | 0.0% | -31.1% | -16.2% |
| Detroit Lions | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Packers shored up the North with their defeat of the Bears this past weekend. Although the Vikings are currently the second NFC wild card, they don't control their "destiny" in regards to making the playoffs (they could get jumped by the Giants if New York also wins out and Dallas loses a game since Minnesota current has the tiebreaker over the Cowboys who have it over the Giants, but New York has the tiebreaker over the Vikings). The Bears could move back into the playoff picture, but they need the Vikings to lose.
| NFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.5% | 0.0% |
Atlanta secures the #1 seed with just one more win, and they can't fall below #3. New Orleans is still alive, but needs a lot of help. If they win out, the Bears lose out, the Vikings lose out, the Giants lose out, either the Redskins or Cowboys lose out, and the Rams lose a game, the Saints will be the #6 seed.
| NFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 100.0% | 86.0% | 1.7% | 5.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 100% | 50% | 61% | 0% | 89.7% | 14.0% | 17.2% | -4.3% |
| St. Louis Rams | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -14.4% | -1.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Niners clinched a playoff spot by defeating the Patriots and clinch the division with one more win. If they win the division, they will be no worse than the #3 seed, and if they fall to a Wild Card spot, they will be the #5. Seattle secures a playoff spot with one more win and wins the division if they win out while San Francisco loses out. The Rams still have a long shot (although not as long as the Saints) for the #6. They get it if they win out, the Bears lose out, the Vikings lose out, the Giants lose out, and either the Redskins or Cowboys lose out.
No comments:
Post a Comment