Another week of the season is in the books, and the first few teams have clinched playoff spots as well as their respective divisions. A few more teams have joined the Chiefs in the eliminated from contention status. I've reformatted this data to be broken out by division. Keep in mind that these numbers are calculated by looping through all of the teams and setting one team to win out, one to lose out, and the rest of the games are determined randomly.
| AFC East | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| New England Patriots | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 5.1% | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3% | 0.0% | -16.1% | -11.9% |
| New York Jets | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.4% | 0.0% | -1.0% | -0.2% |
The Patriots clinched the division with their victory over the Dolphins this past weekend. The rest of the division is still alive albeit barely. It's pretty much going to take winning out for any of the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets to make it, and even that may not be enough.
| AFC North | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 100% | 100% | 93% | 21% | 99.3% | 86.9% | -0.4% | -6.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 100% | 49% | 0% | 0% | 45.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 100% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 52.6% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 2.2% |
| Cleveland Browns | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
The Ravens loss to the Steelers this past weekend hurt them a bit, but they're still close to locking up a playoff spot and are still far in the lead for winning the division. The Bengals and Steelers are lurking, and both are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out (they still have a head-to-head game, so both can't win out). The Browns are probably done, but could still make it in by winning out and getting a miracle.
| AFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Houston Texans | 100% | 100% | 100% | 26% | 100.0% | 88.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 100% | 75% | 11% | 0% | 87.1% | 11.4% | 7.6% | -1.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | -6.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Houston locked up a playoff position but still has to do more to win the division. The Colts are working their way into locking up a playoff position. The Jaguars have joined the eliminated teams, and the Titans win probably join that crew soon.
| AFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Denver Broncos | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| San Diego Chargers | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | -8.7% | -0.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.1% | 0.0% |
The Broncos have locked up the West while Oakland has joined Kansas City in the "land of the lost". The Chargers are still slightly relevant but perhaps for not much longer.
| NFC East | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| New York Giants | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 63.4% | 44.1% | -15.1% | -23.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 100% | 93% | 0% | 0% | 36.6% | 27.8% | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 99% | 93% | 0% | 0% | 32.8% | 28.0% | 14.2% | 14.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | >0% | >0% | 0% | 0% | >0.0% | >0.0% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
All of the NFC East teams are still alive and could win the division, but it's highly unlikely that the Eagles will do either. The other three are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out. I'd be surprised if more than one of the NFC East teams makes the playoffs.
| NFC North | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Green Bay Packers | 100% | 100% | 2% | 0% | 83.0% | 56.2% | 16.3% | 22.3% |
| Chicago Bears | 100% | 100% | >0% | 0% | 78.3% | 36.8% | -5.6% | -14.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 99% | 58% | 0% | 0% | 19.0% | 7.0% | -15.3% | -7.6% |
| Detroit Lions | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -2.2% | 0.0% |
All of the NFC North teams are also alive, although the Lions can't win the division and are a playoff long shot (although not as long as the Eagles). The second place win will likely capture a wild card spot.
| NFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 91% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.7% | 0.0% | -13.6% | -3.3% |
| New Orleans Saints | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.7% | 0.0% | -9.2% | -0.6% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The South has the NFC's only guaranteed and eliminated teams. The Falcons have wrapped up the division and are working towards guaranteeing home field advantage through the playoffs. The Panthers are out of it. The Bucs and Saints hurt their chances with losses in week 13 but are still viable wild card possibilities.
| NFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Out | Lose Out | Summary | Summary Δ | |||||
| Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | Playoffs | Division | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 100% | 100% | 26% | 7% | 92.3% | 76.8% | -2.5% | -10.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 100% | 87% | >0% | 0% | 59.1% | 20.6% | 18.9% | 10.6% |
| St. Louis Rams | 95% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | -2.5% | -0.5% |
The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks could all still win this division. The Niners took a slight step back with their loss to St. Louis this weekend, but they are still by far the favorite. Seattle continues to improve their hold on a wild card spot.
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