NFL Playoff Picture: Week Fourteen

Week 14 is in the books, and there are now just three games left for teams to jockey for position. No new teams have clinched playoff positions this week, so five of the divisions are still up for grabs as are eight playoff spots. Seven of the eight division leaders are locked in as such through next week with only the NFC East up for grabs. And once again, while a couple teams shuffled positions, no teams left or entered the picture this week.

Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots and Broncos locked up the East and West respectively last week and are now just trying to improve their playoff seeds. In the North, the Texans lead is down to 2 games over the Colts. Two of their three remaining games is against Indianapolis, and if they can win one of them, Houston will lock up the division. As for the South, the Ravens maintained their two game lead over the Steelers and Bengals since all three lost.

As for the Wild Card, the Colts have a two game lead for the #5 seed over the Steelers and Bengals. Pittsburgh has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cinncinati (although the two will face off again in week 16) and thus has the #6 seed for now.

Houston lead in the race for the top seed is down to just a game. New England and Denver are tied for second, since they won their match-up, the Patriots are the #2 seed. Baltimore is a game back from those two in fourth. The current AFC playoff picture is:

On the NFC side, the Giants maintained their lead in the East by defeating the Saints, but both the Redskins and Cowboys won to stay just a game back. The Packers now have the lead in the North by a game (rather than by tiebreakers) since the Bears lost. The Falcons wrapped up the South last week. The 49ers maintained their 1.5 game lead over the Seahawks in the West.

Chicago and Seattle are tied for the NFC Wild Card spots, but the Seahawks have the head-to-head victory and thus get the #5 while the Bears have the #6.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record: Atlanta's at top with a 1.5 game lead over San Francisco (#2) who have a half game lead over Green Bay (#3) who leads New York (#4) by a game. The current NFC playoff picture is:

As mentioned early, all of the divisional leaders are guaranteed to still be in the lead next week except for the Giants. New York keeps the lead in the East if they win or if the Redskins and Cowboys both lose. If neither of those scenarios happen, Washington takes over the lead with a win. Dallas takes the lead with a win and a New York and Washington loss.

The Colts will still be the AFC #5 regardless of outcome next week. The #6 will switch hands to the Bengels if they win while the Steelers lose otherwise Pittsburgh keeps the spot.

The NFC Wild Card situation is much more complex. There are five teams that could be a NFC Wild Card team after week 15 (one of which is New York who'd much prefer to remain division leader). Here are the possibilities starting with most likely to least:

• Seattle retains a wild card spot unless they lose, the Bears win, the Giants lose, and only one of the Redskins and Cowboys win.
• Chicago retains a wild card spot with a win or with a loss and either:
  1. Washington and Dallas both lose
  2. a Cowboys win and a win by either the Redskins or Giants but not both
• New York falls into a wild card spot with a loss, a win by either Washington or Dallas but not both, and a loss by Chicago or Seattle.
• Washington moves into a wild card spot if they win, the Giants win, and the Bears lose. [If the Giants lose in this scenario, the Redskins would take over the division lead.]
• Minnesota moves into a wild card spot if they win, Chicago loses, and either:
  1. the Giants win
  2. New York loses while Washington and Dallas both win
  3. the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all lose