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Sunday, April 1, 2012

WG Predictions/Goals/Wishes Update: March

March is over, and the year is roughly one-fourth of the way done. It's time for another check on how my Where's George predictions, goals, and wishes are doing so far. TBD

  • Predictions
    • 13.66 Bills Entered Per Day
      • I entered 508 bills in March for an average of 16.39 bills per day. This puts the yearly total to 1304 and raises the daily average to 14.33. To hit this goal, I'll have to average 13.44 for the rest of the year. I'm in good shape for now, but I'll wait a month before making any adjustments to my expectation of bills entered this year. Therefore, the calculations below are assuming that I will still enter 5000 bills in 2012.
    • 1231 Hits in 2012 / 4030 Overall Hits
      • I got 129 hits in February bringing the yearly total to 368 which is ahead of where I need to be for my 2012 goal. Including the new data from March, the hit prediction program from the original prediction post calculated that I'd get 951 more hits in 2012. That would result in 1319 hits in 2012 and 4118 overall. Those numbers are up 34 hits from last month's recalculation. That increases my expected slugging percentage to 18.96% (up 0.16% from last month).
    • 1015 Additional Bills with Hits in 2012 / 3445 Overall Bills with Hits
      • Of the 129 hits, 114 were the initial hit on a bill putting my additional bills with hits in 2012 at 308. Using the output from the prediction program and Excel, I obtained a calculation of 780 more bills with hits. That would result in 1088 in 2012 and 3518 overall. Those numbers are up 34 bills from last month's recalculation. That would put my expected hit rate at 16.20% (up 0.16% from last month).
    • State Bingo Completion
      • Still no new States hit.
    • One Additional California County Hit in 2012 / 53 Counties Hit Overall
      • No new CA counties hit in March.
    • 17 Additional FRB Bingos / 57 FRB Bingos Overall
      • I'm still at 44 FRB bingos (none additional in March). That puts me on pace for 16 in the year which is behind the prediction.
    • No More Than 13 Hitless Days
      • I had my first hitless day in March. One in three months is pretty good. I don't expect that ratio will hold up for the year, but I've got a nice buffer for now.
    • 80+ Day Hit Streak
      • My first streak of the year lasted for 81 days completing this prediction. Would be nice to break this record again, but I won't be counting on it.
  • Goals
    • National Rank Under 1000 in November & December
      • My rank was under 1000 for all but four days in March (March 5-8). Will be interesting to see if it bounces above at any point in April. Regardless, I should be in good shape to not even get close to 1000 by the end of the year.
    • State Rank Under 75
      • My rank was 74 for one day in March, and since the 13th, I've only been above 80 for one day. Still a ways from getting consistently below 75, but progress is apparent each month.
    • $1s Making Up >87.29% of All Entries
      • I ended the month at 86.70% which puts me 40% of the way to this goal. I'm still thinking this one should be a slam dunk.
    • More Series 2009 Entries Than 2003A
      • Lots of progress was made toward this in March, and 2003A's leads is now under 1600. I've been cutting roughly 200 off each month. I'm ahead of the pace needed to accomplish this, and I think my pace is just going to continue to go up.
    • Decrease San Francisco "L" FRB Bills Below 50%
      • The San Francisco percentage is now down to 50.3%, and I should have it under 50% bu the end of May. Whether or not I'm able to keep it under will be the tricky part.
    • Increase Percentage of Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St. Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J" FRB Bills
      • I currently have this covered for all of these but Minneapolis. I think for the FRBs that I get the extra 200, I'll destroy this goal. I've only acquired 100 extra for St. Louis and Kansas City so far, but I'm still looking (as I am for Minneapolis). I think I've improved my eBay search criteria to help with this.
    • 30 Zip Codes with 25+ Entries
      • No new zips with 25+ in March. Still need to do some traveling to get process on this one.
  • Wishes
    • 5 Hit Bill
      • I had two bills that got their third hit in March and 13 that got their second. No five hit bill yet.
    • New Record Month for Hits
      • Completed in January. Broken again in March. New record is 129 hits.
    • Surpass 500 2006 L-L $1 Entries
      • I'm now at 493 with 7 to go. I entered 4 more in March for 12 total this year. If I continue to average 4 a month, I'll knock this one off in May.
    • Surpass 400 Entries with one 2009 FRB/Block Combo and 300 with Another
      • My top 2009 block is LB at 270 with 14 added in March and 35 overall for the year. That pace won't get me to 400. LG is second with 259 (30 in March; 94 in 2012). If I continue to get a lot of LG's, it'll get close to 400. Third is LF with 231 (10 in March; 36 in 2012). LF is unlikely to get to 300 but still has a chance. No other series 2009 FRB/block combo has reached 200 entries.
    • Complete Non-Star Portions of Series 2003A and 2006 $1 Bingo
      • One spot knocked off in March for series 2006: DG. With 13 spots to go, and two of those being combos I haven't entered yet, I really don't think this one is going to happen.
    • 4+ Year Active Bill
      • My 2nd, 4th, 10th, and 11th longest active bills were last hit in March, however, none were close to being active for 4 years. This record is more likley to fall in the second half of the year if it does.

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