Another year brings about another set of goals, predictions, and wishes in my nerdy obsession of Where's George. Last year I split these into three different posts, but for this year I've recombined them. I think last year I got a bit broad in each category and picked some things that really weren't that interesting as the year played out. My plan is for this year's items to all be things that I'll still be interested in at the end of the year.
Starting off with my projection for bill entries. I predicted 5000 entries in 2012 and ended up entering 6200, so I was quite a bit off. I think 5000 is a more reasonable number, but based off of the past year, I think I'm going to predict 6000 for 2013. Using that information, I ran my program from last year for predicting hits based on past results and historical entries plus expected entering rate. The program predicted 1514 hits in 2013. I received 1531 hits in 2012 and getting less hits in 2013 doesn't seem right. So I reran the program for last year based on the actual amount of entries, and it predicted I would have gotten 1364 hits. So my actual amount of hits was 12.2% more. Expecting that the program would be the same percentage off, and adjusted amount of hits for 2013 is 1700 for a total of 6029. If that happens, my slugging percentage will be 20.85% (up from the current value of 18.89%). Using my Excel spreadsheet for predicting which of those hits would be the initial hits on a bill, I expect to have 1370 additional bills with hits for 5074 overall. That would result in a hit rate of 17.55% (up from the current value of 16.16%).
Based on the 1700 hits, I'd expect to average 4.6 hits/day. That information can be used to find the odds of getting a hit in any particular minute which can then be used to predict the odds of a hit-less day. Which in this case is just under 1% meaning I should only have 3-4 hit-less days in 2013 (I had 9 in 2012 after predicting no more than 13). So I'll predict 4 or less hit-less days and a hit streak of at least 100 days entirely in 2013 (so my 86 day hit streak coming into the year doesn't count).
I have a number of goals/predictions in regards to bingos. Starting off with 50 State bingo, I just need West Virginia, and I predict that I will get a hit in WV in 2013. As for California county bingo, I have hits in 55 of the 58 counties. I don't really believe it, but I predict that I'll get the final 3 counties. In 2012, I got hits in 44 States (well 43 plus the District of Columbia). For 2013, I would expect to do slightly better and thus predict 46. As for total counties hit, I currently have hits in 483. Based on the prediction of 1700 hits in 2013 plus my declining rate of getting new counties, I project 98 new counties in 2013 for a total of 581.
As for the bill entries, once again I'd like to increase the overall percentage ones make of my entries. Targeting increasing that percentage by 1% worked well in 2012, so I'll set the same goal in 2013. My current percentage is 87.64% so my goal for the end of 2013 is 88.64% this would require 92.5% of my entries in 2013 to be ones. In 2012, 91.25% of my entries were ones, so this may end up being a bit of a stretch goal. As for my FRB insertion experiment from last year where I inserted bills from my bottom 6 FRBs in an effort to increase their overall percentage of my bills entered, I plan to continue that effort in 2013 but in a different manner. In 2013, I plan to increase each of the non-San Francisco FRBs. In an attempt to get a second FRB to double digits percentage-wise of my entries, I'm going to target increasing my Atlanta (my second highest at 9.1%) percentage by 0.5%. For the six FRBs I increased in 2012, I'm going to target 0.1%. The others I will target increasing by 0.2%. Unlike last year where I blindly inserted a large number of bills, this year I will only insert in bills as needed to meet the targets.
Along with the above predictions and goals, I do have a few wishes. First, I would like to get my first 5 hit bill. I currently have 6 four hit bills, and it'd be nice to see one of those bills get another hit. Second, I would like to get my first 5+ year active bill. My longest active bill was last hit 4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes after I entered it. I look forward to that bill getting replaced at the top. My third wish is to break my current record for most hits in a month (160: May 2012). My second best month had 139 hits, so I really haven't gotten close to 160 since. In order to hit 1700 hits in 2013, I'd have to average 142 hits per month. So at a minimum, I'll have to set a new second best at worst.
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