My picks for UFC on FX 7 didn't turn out to be so hot, and I'm quite a bit behind in my fantasy league. There are a few interesting and hard to pick fights on this card, and as such, my picks could as easily be fantastic or horrible as so-so. The only thing I know for certain is that the card should be entertaining.
| Welterweight Match [FOX6-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 2.22 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #226 | Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1) | -237 | 0.94 | 3.16 |
| NR | David Mitchell (11-2) | +185 | 4.11 | 6.33 |
UFC on FOX 6 starts off with a "who?" match. I don't recognize either of these guys although both have had two UFC fights. Thoresen has the sole win out of those four fights, is the favorite, and I recognize the name of one of the fighters he has beaten. That's enough for me to go with him.
| Middleweight Match [FOX6-10] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 6.97 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #90 | Rafael Natal (14-4-1) | -254 | 2.74 | 9.71 |
| WW #165 | Sean Spencer (9-1) | +196 | 13.66 | 20.63 |
Spencer is a late replacement for this fight and is fighting up a class from his normal welterweight. Add that this is his UFC debut and over half his wins are via decision, and it's clear that Natal should take this one easily.
| Heavyweight Match [FOX6-09] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 10.77 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| HW #21 | Mike Russow (15-2, 1 NC) | -185 | 5.82 | 16.59 |
| HW #68 | Shawn Jordan (13-4) | +153 | 16.48 | 27.25 |
Neither was impressive in his last fight, although Russow's performance was worse as he got knocked out by Werdum. Russow's signature win in the UFC was a comeback KO that saved him from a loss in the third round. Altough he's displayed a good chin at times, I think Jordan overpowers him (Russow's not coming to manhandle and hold Jordan against the cage like Kongo) and gets the KO before the end of the second.
| Light Heavyweight Match [FOX6-08] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 12.81 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #7 | Ryan Bader (14-3) | -510 | 2.51 | 15.32 |
| LHW #33 | Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6) | +353 | 45.22 | 58.03 |
Bader is the biggest favorite so far this year (granted the year is young), and as such, it's tempting to go with "The Janitor". Matyushenko hasn't fared that well against top competition (which Bader questionable is) and is getting up there in age. While tempted, I'm going to stick with the favorite.
| Welterweight Match [FOX6-07] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 5.21 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #229 | Pascal Krauss (10-1) | -249 | 2.09 | 7.30 |
| NR | Mike Stumpf (11-3) | +190 | 9.90 | 15.11 |
Stumpf hasn't fought in over a year, and he lost his sole UFC fight via submission. Krauss has gotten the majority of his wins via submission and his sole loss is to the extremely tough John Hathaway. The German definitely has the edge.
| Featherweight Match [FOX6-06] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 13.41 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #16 | Clay Guida (29-13) | -242 | 5.54 | 18.95 |
| FW #11 | Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2) | +186 | 24.94 | 38.35 |
Hioki was on his way to a featherweight title shot until getting derailed in his last fight. Guida was tough at lightweight but never quite elite and is trying his hand at a lower weight class. I don't think Hioki's been all that impressive in the UFC, and I think "The Carpenter's" endless gas tank and attack will be far too overwhelming for him.
| Lightweight Match [FOX6-05] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 13.36 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #11 | T.J. Grant (19-5) | -119 | 11.23 | 24.59 |
| LW #17 | Matt Wiman (15-6) | -105 | 12.72 | 26.08 |
Both fighters are making a run up the lightweight division ranks. With the excpetion of Grant's victory over Evan Dunham, I think Wiman's recent victories have been more impressive especially his submission win over Paul Sass after fighting out of a couple of "Sass-angle's" patented triangle attempts. Although I'm not a fan, I will be going with the "Handsome" one.
| Featherweight Match [FOX6-04] | ||||
| FOX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 13.73 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #5 | Ricardo Lamas (12-2) | +127 | 17.44 | 31.17 |
| NR | Erik Koch (13-1) | -152 | 9.03 | 22.76 |
Koch was suppose to fight for the title late last year, got hurt, saw Edgar take over his spot, and now has to fight his way back into the picture. Lamas knocked the previously mentioned Hioki out of the title picture. Either could be in the title picture with a win, although I believe the next featherweight shot was suppose to go to the Korean Zombie (that fight was so long ago, it's hard to say if the shot is still valid). Koch's title shot had seemed premature at the time, and I think Lamas will go on to prove that point to be correct.
| Lightweight Match [FOX6-03] | ||||
| FOX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 17.77 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #8 | Donald Cerrone (19-4, 1 NC) | -103 | 17.25 | 35.02 |
| LW #13 | Anthony Pettis (15-2) | -120 | 14.81 | 32.58 |
This is a tough match for me to call. I'm a fan of both, and while I really want to see Pettis-Henderson II, I really don't want to pick against the Cowboy (even though I'm not that interested in Cerrone-Henderson III). Cerrone has been more active in the UFC, and Pettis has been out for a year, so I'm going with the Cowboy based on his extra experience the past couple years.
| Light Heavyweight Match [FOX6-02] | ||||
| FOX / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 17.88 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #8 | Quinton Jackson (32-10) | +258 | 46.13 | 64.01 |
| LHW #20 | Glover Teixeira (19-2) | -323 | 5.54 | 23.42 |
Rampage has seemed distracted as of late, and unless his forecoming departure from the UFC has really inspired him to go out with an "F U" win, I don't think we're going to see the best he could have given this fight. Teixeira hasn't lost since 2005, and it looks like that streak is going to continue.
| Flyweight Match [FOX6-01] | ||||
| FOX / Main Card / Main Event / Championship | ||||
| Match Points: 22.73 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FLW #1 | Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) | -224 | 10.15 | 32.88 |
| FLW #5 | John Dodson (14-5) | +183 | 41.60 | 64.33 |
This main event title fight is the first of three sequential title fights where we could reasonably see a new champion crowned. Mighty Mouse is a quick and dynamic fighter but has shown to be susceptable to powerful shots (case in point: Johnson was close to being pounded out by McCall at the end of their first fight). Dodson can almost match him on speed and has shown more power. Johnson's game plan in the second fight against Uncle Creepy and the title fight against Benavidez won't work against Dodson. I'm a bit down in the fantasy league, and although it's way too early to be worried about that, the odds given in this fight make it too hard not to take the underdog.
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