It's a new year, and with that, new rules for my UFC Fantasy League. This year's league uses the betting money line posted on Fight Matrix to determine points for correctly picking each winner. Fight points are determined based on what station televises the fight, if it's part of the main card, and the Fight Matrix rankings of the fighters involved. Additionally, bonus points are added if the fight is the main or co-main event and if it's for the title, interim title, or #1 contender. Points for each fight are considered wagered against the money line, and the amount won plus the fight points are awarded when right.
This year's rule award more points to underdogs than last, and it'll be interesting to see how much that affects the league for this year. I think it's going to make picks tougher this year than last.
With all that said, it's time to make picks. UFC on FX 7 is the first card of the year, and there'll be five cards in the next six weeks. Things are going to be going fast in a hurry. This year, I plan to make my picks from the bottom of the card up.
| Lightweight Match [FX7-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 4.06 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #67 | Francisco Trinaldo (11-2) | -345 | 1.18 | 5.24 |
| LW #322 | C.J. Keith (8-1) | +265 | 10.76 | 14.82 |
The first fight of the night features the largest favorite/underdog. I can't say that I'm familiar with either of the fighters. Keith lost his sole UFC fight by getting knocked out in less than half a round to a recent TUF competitor. Trinaldo is fighting in his home country of Brazil. It's not worth a lot of points, but I'll pick the guy with home field advantage.
| Light Heavyweight Match [FX7-10] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 5.01 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #88 | Ildemar Alcantara (17-5) | +209 | 10.47 | 15.48 |
| LHW #166 | Wagner Prado (8-1, 1 NC) | -252 | 1.99 | 7.00 |
Both of Prado's UFC fights have been against Phil Davis (the first ending in a no contest due to inadvertent eye poke). Although Mr. Wonderful choked him out, he has the look of an absolute beast. Alcantara is moving up from middleweight to take this fight which is also his first in the UFC. Both of those points lead me to go with Prado.
| Bantamweight Match [FX7-09] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 10.64 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #24 | Iuri Alcantara (27-4) | -115 | 9.25 | 19.89 |
| FLW #17 | Pedro Nobre (14-1-2) | -115 | 9.25 | 19.89 |
This fight lacks a money line, and so by league rules, both fighters are assigned -115. It's a strange fight where a featherweight is taking on a flyweight at bantanweight. I see no reason to not go with the bigger man especially since Alcantara has 4 fights in the UFC/WEC while Nobre has none.
| Lightweight Match [FX7-08] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 4.72 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #92 | Edson Barboza (10-1) | -294 | 1.61 | 6.33 |
| LW #204 | Lucas Martins (12-0) | +243 | 11.47 | 16.19 |
Barboza was roughly this big of a favorite against Jamie Varner, and we all know how that ended. Martins, just like Varner, was a late replacement. And while Lucas's undefeated record is impressive, I can't imagine Edson will get caught again this time, especially since he needs to bounce back from the aforementioned loss.
| Featherweight Match [FX7-07] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 11.46 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #6 | Diego Nunes (18-3) | -167 | 6.86 | 18.32 |
| FW #21 | Nik Lentz (22-5-2, 1 NC) | +141 | 16.16 | 27.62 |
Nunes has been close to a title shot a couple times but faltered when he needed a win the most. Diego is probably a couple of good wins away from being considered again. Lentz has a fantastic nickname ("The Carny") and is getting quite the test in his second featherweight fight. All ten of Nunes's UFC/WEC fights have gone to decision. Usually I don't like to go with the guy who can't finish, but I'm giving Diego the nod based on experience.
| Middleweight Match [FX7-06] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 9.60 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #29 | Andrew Craig (8-0) | +214 | 20.54 | 30.14 |
| MW #33 | Ronny Markes (13-1) | -260 | 3.69 | 13.29 |
Both fighters are 2-0 in the UFC. Both seem evenly matched. Markes has an edge fighting in his home country, but not enough in my mind to justify being such a large favorite. So I'm going with Craig as a value underdog.
| Featherweight Match [FX7-05] | ||||
| Fuel | ||||
| Match Points: 5.73 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #46 | Milton Vieira (13-7-2) | -210 | 2.73 | 8.46 |
| FW #328 | Godofredo Castro (8-1) | +174 | 9.97 | 15.70 |
Castro was a finalist on TUF: Brazil. Vieira drew in his only UFC fight. I'm not familiar with either, and I don't see a good reason to believe one is better than the other. Thus I'll take the underdog.
| Lightweight Match [FX7-04] | ||||
| FX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 14.20 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #18 | Khabib Nurmagomedov (18-0) | -183 | 7.76 | 21.96 |
| LW #32 | Thiago Tavares (17-4-1) | +155 | 22.01 | 36.21 |
Tavares has been with the UFC since 2007 fighting 12 times with a 7-4-1 record. Khabib has 2 UFC fights (both victories) and has an impressive (though I'd guess inflated) 18-0 record. Tavares will definitely be his toughest fight to date, and it's even tougher fighting in his opponent's home country. I think Nurmagomedov will get his first blemish.
| Heavyweight Match [FX7-03] | ||||
| FX / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 14.90 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| HW #16 | Ben Rothwell (32-8) | -108 | 13.80 | 28.70 |
| HW #20 | Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6) | -117 | 12.74 | 27.64 |
I've been unimpressed with either's career in the UFC although Gonzaga's KO of Cro Cop was pretty impressive (he didn't back it up with much). Gabe will be fighting at home, but I fear that will inspire him to put on a show more so than go for the win. If he does that, the fight will stay on the feet where Rothwell has the edge.
| Middleweight Match [FX7-02] | ||||
| FX / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 15.25 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #48 | C.B. Dollaway (12-4) | +150 | 22.88 | 38.13 |
| NR | Daniel Sarafian (7-2) | -176 | 8.66 | 23.91 |
Why is Dollaway in the co-main event of this card let alone any card? The highlight of his last fight (his first win in three fights) was him getting a "nuggie" from Mayhem Miller. Sarafian was expected to win the middleweight championship on TUF: Brazil until he had to pull out due to injury. He hasn't fought in roughly a year and a half, but he's bound to be good enough to be C.B.
| Middleweight Match [FX7-01] | ||||
| FX / Main Card / Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 17.27 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #5 | Vitor Belfort (21-10) | -114 | 15.15 | 32.42 |
| MW #8 | Michael Bisping (23-4) | -111 | 15.56 | 32.83 |
Bisping has looked better than I'd like to admit in his past two fights, and with a title shot (just for him) on the line, I'm sure he's going to be prepared. His #1 contender match against Sonnen (which he lost) was probably the best I've seen him look. Regardless, I don't want to see him in a title fight. Vitor is a knockout machine, and I can't think of a better end to the night than to see Bisping face down on the canvas with his title hopes evaporated.
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