The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

The fourth week of 2013 is in the books, and I'm continuing to have success in regards to running and weight management although I did have a few challenges on the running front this past week. Additionally I'm noticing that I'm hungry than usual, so I wonder if I have a rough week coming up in my future.

Starting off with Weight Management, I had two "over" days in the past week (Friday & Saturday) but still ended up 668 calories under target for the week. I burned 2,667 calories during the week meaning I ate back 1,999 of the calories I burned. Add the deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 0.7 pounds. Here are my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
01/14-01/21	178.2	175.8	179.0	175.8	98.9	42.6
01/21-01/28	177.1	176.0	178.0	177.8	98.8	41.6
	-1.1	+0.2	-1.0	+2.0	-0.1	-1.0

Another good week of results, however, with actual results about a ½ pound lower than expected, I could be in for a rough week this coming week. My last weigh-in of the week was two pounds heavier than last week's, but that wasn't totally unexpected.

Rant-time. Up until this week, I was working my way towards earning the "Inferno" badge on LoseIt: "You have burned an amazing number of calories for 8 weeks in a row!". And by "amazing" they mean 20% of your weekly budget of calories (the calculation is slightly off from that, but that's a rough approximation). Based on that, it's much easier for a person targeting a 2 pound/week loss to earn the badge rather than someone like I targeting ½ because at my calorie target, I have to burn ~3200 calories a week while a person who weighs the same but is targeting 2 pounds just have to burn 2150 a week. Why should someone trying to lose more weight per week be targeting over a 1000 less calories burned? If anything, the person targeting more weight loss should be targeting more calories burned to avoid losing muscle rather than fat weight. Just sayin'!

Moving onto running, as I mentioned before, I had a couple of setbacks but would still call it a good week. I skipped running on Thursday due to rain and had planned to do a long run Saturday morning but awoke with a cramp in my left calf, so I waited until Sunday to do the run. My week of running ended like this:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
5.32	3.64		Rain		Cramp	10.40
Total Mileage: 19.36

My 10.4 miles on Sunday was my longest run of the year and puts me on track for being ready for the Shamrock'n Half Marathon in March. I have the Super Bowl 10K this coming Sunday, and my original plan was to run 5 miles on each Monday and Wednesday to get to 16 miles. However, since I did my long run on Sunday, I'll probably move that to Tuesday and Thursday. Here's a graphical look at the miles for the week:

Miles Ran 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

I set a goal of 800 miles ran this year, and here's a look at my progress towards that:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 83.90 miles in 2013, and if I keep up that pace, I'll end the year with 1134 miles. As I've said before, I think that number will drop once I've gotten past the Shamrock'n Half Marathon. I look forward to seeing if my training leads to a new 10K personal record in this weekend's Super Bowl 10K.

My Where's George Week in Review: 01/20/13 - 01/26/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 28 hits in 5 States [CA²¹, CO, IL², MO, NV²] as well as an international hit in Barrigada, Guam. Of those hits, 5 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (23) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
20	21	22	23	24	25	26
2	2	3	5	5	8	3

I came into the week with a 16 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended to the streak to 23 days.

Of the 5 States in which I received hits this past week, 2 were the first hit for that State in 2013: IL, MO. Overall I've received hits in 18 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 1 county bringing my total of counties hit to 491. The newly hit county was Randolph IL. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 101 Days 10 Hours 35 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 152^nd on my all-time longest active list. Not really a great week for long time active bills.

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	23236	23343	107	423	28920	115.1	23347	-8	-4
Bills with Hits	3704	3771	3794	23	90	5074	26.3	3802	-3	-8
Total Hits	4330	4412	4440	28	110	6030	32.6	4451	-5	-11

I finished the week a bit behind on all three stats, but that's expected at this point in the year. At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 5938 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to increase my rate to 115.2 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 87.72% [+0.08%]. I'm just a touch behind where I need to be, and I expect to make up the difference in the next couple weeks.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	20378	20476	98	390	25634	98.9	20478	-1	-2
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 5938.26923076923 entries this year rather than 6000						25579	99.0	20478	-1	-2

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	796	3.43%	802	3.44%	3.51%	798	+4
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1714	7.38%	1723	7.38%	7.58%	1727	-4
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	668	2.87%	669	2.87%	2.96%	671	-2
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	838	3.61%	844	3.62%	3.67%	837	+7
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1600	6.89%	1611	6.90%	7.05%	1603	+8
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2134	9.18%	2145	9.19%	9.64%	2145	0
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1539	6.62%	1545	6.62%	6.75%	1534	+11
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	752	3.24%	757	3.24%	3.33%	756	+1
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	611	2.63%	613	2.63%	2.73%	616	-3
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	566	2.44%	572	2.45%	2.53%	571	+1
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	958	4.12%	961	4.12%	4.36%	975	-14

Other than "K" (which I'm still working on acquiring), I've done a good job of keeping most of these FRBs close to where they need to be. "D", "E", and "G" bills must be popular in the area right now as they are staying ahead of target without needing much in the line of insertions.

It was a good, but not great week of hits. The hits I did get weren't all that spread out, but I did get an "international" hit in Guam. Looking forward to see how January ends.

My UFC on FOX 6 Fight Picks

My picks for UFC on FX 7 didn't turn out to be so hot, and I'm quite a bit behind in my fantasy league. There are a few interesting and hard to pick fights on this card, and as such, my picks could as easily be fantastic or horrible as so-so. The only thing I know for certain is that the card should be entertaining.

Welterweight Match [FOX6-11]
N/A
Match Points: 2.22
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #226	Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1)	-237	0.94	3.16
NR	David Mitchell (11-2)	+185	4.11	6.33

UFC on FOX 6 starts off with a "who?" match. I don't recognize either of these guys although both have had two UFC fights. Thoresen has the sole win out of those four fights, is the favorite, and I recognize the name of one of the fighters he has beaten. That's enough for me to go with him.

Middleweight Match [FOX6-10]
FX
Match Points: 6.97
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #90	Rafael Natal (14-4-1)	-254	2.74	9.71
WW #165	Sean Spencer (9-1)	+196	13.66	20.63

Spencer is a late replacement for this fight and is fighting up a class from his normal welterweight. Add that this is his UFC debut and over half his wins are via decision, and it's clear that Natal should take this one easily.

Heavyweight Match [FOX6-09]
FX
Match Points: 10.77
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #21	Mike Russow (15-2, 1 NC)	-185	5.82	16.59
HW #68	Shawn Jordan (13-4)	+153	16.48	27.25

Neither was impressive in his last fight, although Russow's performance was worse as he got knocked out by Werdum. Russow's signature win in the UFC was a comeback KO that saved him from a loss in the third round. Altough he's displayed a good chin at times, I think Jordan overpowers him (Russow's not coming to manhandle and hold Jordan against the cage like Kongo) and gets the KO before the end of the second.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX6-08]
FX
Match Points: 12.81
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #7	Ryan Bader (14-3)	-510	2.51	15.32
LHW #33	Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6)	+353	45.22	58.03

Bader is the biggest favorite so far this year (granted the year is young), and as such, it's tempting to go with "The Janitor". Matyushenko hasn't fared that well against top competition (which Bader questionable is) and is getting up there in age. While tempted, I'm going to stick with the favorite.

Welterweight Match [FOX6-07]
FX
Match Points: 5.21
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #229	Pascal Krauss (10-1)	-249	2.09	7.30
NR	Mike Stumpf (11-3)	+190	9.90	15.11

Stumpf hasn't fought in over a year, and he lost his sole UFC fight via submission. Krauss has gotten the majority of his wins via submission and his sole loss is to the extremely tough John Hathaway. The German definitely has the edge.

Featherweight Match [FOX6-06]
FX
Match Points: 13.41
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #16	Clay Guida (29-13)	-242	5.54	18.95
FW #11	Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2)	+186	24.94	38.35

Hioki was on his way to a featherweight title shot until getting derailed in his last fight. Guida was tough at lightweight but never quite elite and is trying his hand at a lower weight class. I don't think Hioki's been all that impressive in the UFC, and I think "The Carpenter's" endless gas tank and attack will be far too overwhelming for him.

Lightweight Match [FOX6-05]
FX
Match Points: 13.36
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #11	T.J. Grant (19-5)	-119	11.23	24.59
LW #17	Matt Wiman (15-6)	-105	12.72	26.08

Both fighters are making a run up the lightweight division ranks. With the excpetion of Grant's victory over Evan Dunham, I think Wiman's recent victories have been more impressive especially his submission win over Paul Sass after fighting out of a couple of "Sass-angle's" patented triangle attempts. Although I'm not a fan, I will be going with the "Handsome" one.

Featherweight Match [FOX6-04]
FOX / Main Card
Match Points: 13.73
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #5	Ricardo Lamas (12-2)	+127	17.44	31.17
NR	Erik Koch (13-1)	-152	9.03	22.76

Koch was suppose to fight for the title late last year, got hurt, saw Edgar take over his spot, and now has to fight his way back into the picture. Lamas knocked the previously mentioned Hioki out of the title picture. Either could be in the title picture with a win, although I believe the next featherweight shot was suppose to go to the Korean Zombie (that fight was so long ago, it's hard to say if the shot is still valid). Koch's title shot had seemed premature at the time, and I think Lamas will go on to prove that point to be correct.

Lightweight Match [FOX6-03]
FOX / Main Card
Match Points: 17.77
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #8	Donald Cerrone (19-4, 1 NC)	-103	17.25	35.02
LW #13	Anthony Pettis (15-2)	-120	14.81	32.58

This is a tough match for me to call. I'm a fan of both, and while I really want to see Pettis-Henderson II, I really don't want to pick against the Cowboy (even though I'm not that interested in Cerrone-Henderson III). Cerrone has been more active in the UFC, and Pettis has been out for a year, so I'm going with the Cowboy based on his extra experience the past couple years.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX6-02]
FOX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 17.88
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #8	Quinton Jackson (32-10)	+258	46.13	64.01
LHW #20	Glover Teixeira (19-2)	-323	5.54	23.42

Rampage has seemed distracted as of late, and unless his forecoming departure from the UFC has really inspired him to go out with an "F U" win, I don't think we're going to see the best he could have given this fight. Teixeira hasn't lost since 2005, and it looks like that streak is going to continue.

Flyweight Match [FOX6-01]
FOX / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 22.73
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FLW #1	Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1)	-224	10.15	32.88
FLW #5	John Dodson (14-5)	+183	41.60	64.33

This main event title fight is the first of three sequential title fights where we could reasonably see a new champion crowned. Mighty Mouse is a quick and dynamic fighter but has shown to be susceptable to powerful shots (case in point: Johnson was close to being pounded out by McCall at the end of their first fight). Dodson can almost match him on speed and has shown more power. Johnson's game plan in the second fight against Uncle Creepy and the title fight against Benavidez won't work against Dodson. I'm a bit down in the fantasy league, and although it's way too early to be worried about that, the odds given in this fight make it too hard not to take the underdog.

The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

Another week is in the books, and it was a good week for both weight management and running. Although weight management was aided a bit by what was a poor decision.

Starting off with Weight Management, I was under my calorie target every day but Sunday (I was just 180 over on Sunday but had planned to be more). I burned 3,230 calories during the week and finished 2,537 calories below my target calories based on a ½ pound a week loss (so I ate back 693 of the calories I burned which is the least I've eaten back so far). Add that deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 1.2 pounds. Here are my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
01/07-01/14	179.6	178.2	180.6	180.0	99.2	43.4
01/14-01/21	178.2	175.8	180.0	175.8	98.9	42.6
	-1.4	-2.4	-0.6	-4.2	-0.3	-0.8

Once again my results were quite good. However, like I mentioned above, they were aided by a bad decision. Sunday was NFL Conference Championship Sunday, and I had planned to go well over target on Sunday with beer and food. Well, I may have overdone it with beer and didn't end up eating dinner (saving me some calories). Also since beer dehydrates, I believe my "last" weight (today's) was probably 2 pounds less than expected. That two pounds would have a roughly 0.3 pound impact on my average weight. This will likely result in my next week's numbers not looking as good as they actually are. And I certainly don't expect to see my weight go below 175.8 next week and perhaps not for a month.

Moving onto running, it was a good week of running as I set a new long for the year (which wasn't the plan: I just felt so good during the run that I continued going) Here's a look at my mileage for the week:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
5.20		4.75	3.68		9.40
Total Mileage: 23.03

I'm certainly happy with how the week went. I juggled my running schedule a bit to have dinner with my wife on Tuesday. I thought the back-to-back days closer to the long run might impact it, but with the distance and speed (9:44 minutes/mile) I had during it, that definitely wasn't the case. Here's a graphical look at the miles for the week:

Miles Ran 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

I set a goal of 800 miles ran this year, and here's a look at my progress towards that:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 64.54 miles in 2013, and if I keep up that pace, I'll end the year with 1178 miles. As I've said before, I think that number will drop once I've gotten past the Shamrock'n Half Marathon. My biggest concern now is not to overdo it in advance of the half marathon and hopefully to not peak too soon.

My Where's George Week in Review: 01/13/13 - 01/19/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 26 hits in 9 States [CA¹⁷, CO, NV, OH, TN, TX, UT, WA², WY]. Of those hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (21) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
13	14	15	16	17	18	19
7	5	4	3	4	1	2

I came into the week with a 9 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended to the streak to 16 days.

Of the 9 States in which I received hits this past week, 5 were the first hit for that State in 2013: CO, OH, TN, UT, WY. Overall I've received hits in 16 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

For four of those States, it was the first hit I had gotten in that State for while: the hit in Ohio was my first since August of 2012, the hit in Tennessee was my first since March of 2012, the hit in Utah was my first since October of 2012, and the hit in Wyoming was my first since July of 2012.

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 490. The newly hit counties were Eagle CO and Erie OH. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 43 Days 22 Hours 26 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 35^th on my all-time longest active list.

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	23128	23236	108	316	28920	115.1	23232	-7	+4
Bills with Hits	3704	3750	3771	21	67	5074	26.3	3775	-5	-4
Total Hits	4330	4386	4412	26	82	6030	32.6	4418	-7	-6

So I finished the week a little behind the needed rate for each of these. At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 6071 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to just average 115.0 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 87.70% [+0.06%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	20274	20378	104	292	25634	99.9	20379	+4	-1
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6070.52631578947 entries this year rather than 6000						25696	99.8	20379	+4	-1

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	789	3.41%	796	3.43%	3.51%	794	+2
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1708	7.38%	1714	7.38%	7.58%	1718	-4
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	663	2.87%	668	2.87%	2.96%	667	+1
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	832	3.60%	838	3.61%	3.67%	832	+6
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1589	6.87%	1600	6.89%	7.05%	1594	+6
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2125	9.19%	2134	9.18%	9.64%	2133	+1
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1523	6.59%	1539	6.62%	6.75%	1526	+13
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	747	3.23%	752	3.24%	3.33%	752	0
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	608	2.63%	611	2.63%	2.73%	612	-1
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	563	2.43%	566	2.44%	2.53%	568	-2
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	958	4.14%	958	4.12%	4.36%	970	-12

I still need to acquire some Dallas bills to insert, otherwise the other FRBs are either on track or not to far behind.

As I posted a couple days ago, I found three Wilds this past week: a $1 from Glen Campbell, PA, a $1 from Santa Clara, CA, and a $1 from San Jose, CA. The Pennsylvania bill traveled for two and a half years before it got to me.

While it was a good week for wilds, the past week didn't end up being that great for hits which is disappointing since it started off so well. Really it was just Friday and Saturday that were light, and hopefully that doesn't carry over into next week.

My UFC on FX 7 Fight Picks

It's a new year, and with that, new rules for my UFC Fantasy League. This year's league uses the betting money line posted on Fight Matrix to determine points for correctly picking each winner. Fight points are determined based on what station televises the fight, if it's part of the main card, and the Fight Matrix rankings of the fighters involved. Additionally, bonus points are added if the fight is the main or co-main event and if it's for the title, interim title, or #1 contender. Points for each fight are considered wagered against the money line, and the amount won plus the fight points are awarded when right.

This year's rule award more points to underdogs than last, and it'll be interesting to see how much that affects the league for this year. I think it's going to make picks tougher this year than last.

With all that said, it's time to make picks. UFC on FX 7 is the first card of the year, and there'll be five cards in the next six weeks. Things are going to be going fast in a hurry. This year, I plan to make my picks from the bottom of the card up.

Lightweight Match [FX7-11]
N/A
Match Points: 4.06
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #67	Francisco Trinaldo (11-2)	-345	1.18	5.24
LW #322	C.J. Keith (8-1)	+265	10.76	14.82

The first fight of the night features the largest favorite/underdog. I can't say that I'm familiar with either of the fighters. Keith lost his sole UFC fight by getting knocked out in less than half a round to a recent TUF competitor. Trinaldo is fighting in his home country of Brazil. It's not worth a lot of points, but I'll pick the guy with home field advantage.

Light Heavyweight Match [FX7-10]
Fuel
Match Points: 5.01
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #88	Ildemar Alcantara (17-5)	+209	10.47	15.48
LHW #166	Wagner Prado (8-1, 1 NC)	-252	1.99	7.00

Both of Prado's UFC fights have been against Phil Davis (the first ending in a no contest due to inadvertent eye poke). Although Mr. Wonderful choked him out, he has the look of an absolute beast. Alcantara is moving up from middleweight to take this fight which is also his first in the UFC. Both of those points lead me to go with Prado.

Bantamweight Match [FX7-09]
Fuel
Match Points: 10.64
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #24	Iuri Alcantara (27-4)	-115	9.25	19.89
FLW #17	Pedro Nobre (14-1-2)	-115	9.25	19.89

This fight lacks a money line, and so by league rules, both fighters are assigned -115. It's a strange fight where a featherweight is taking on a flyweight at bantanweight. I see no reason to not go with the bigger man especially since Alcantara has 4 fights in the UFC/WEC while Nobre has none.

Lightweight Match [FX7-08]
Fuel
Match Points: 4.72
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #92	Edson Barboza (10-1)	-294	1.61	6.33
LW #204	Lucas Martins (12-0)	+243	11.47	16.19

Barboza was roughly this big of a favorite against Jamie Varner, and we all know how that ended. Martins, just like Varner, was a late replacement. And while Lucas's undefeated record is impressive, I can't imagine Edson will get caught again this time, especially since he needs to bounce back from the aforementioned loss.

Featherweight Match [FX7-07]
Fuel
Match Points: 11.46
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #6	Diego Nunes (18-3)	-167	6.86	18.32
FW #21	Nik Lentz (22-5-2, 1 NC)	+141	16.16	27.62

Nunes has been close to a title shot a couple times but faltered when he needed a win the most. Diego is probably a couple of good wins away from being considered again. Lentz has a fantastic nickname ("The Carny") and is getting quite the test in his second featherweight fight. All ten of Nunes's UFC/WEC fights have gone to decision. Usually I don't like to go with the guy who can't finish, but I'm giving Diego the nod based on experience.

Middleweight Match [FX7-06]
Fuel
Match Points: 9.60
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #29	Andrew Craig (8-0)	+214	20.54	30.14
MW #33	Ronny Markes (13-1)	-260	3.69	13.29

Both fighters are 2-0 in the UFC. Both seem evenly matched. Markes has an edge fighting in his home country, but not enough in my mind to justify being such a large favorite. So I'm going with Craig as a value underdog.

Featherweight Match [FX7-05]
Fuel
Match Points: 5.73
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #46	Milton Vieira (13-7-2)	-210	2.73	8.46
FW #328	Godofredo Castro (8-1)	+174	9.97	15.70

Castro was a finalist on TUF: Brazil. Vieira drew in his only UFC fight. I'm not familiar with either, and I don't see a good reason to believe one is better than the other. Thus I'll take the underdog.

Lightweight Match [FX7-04]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 14.20
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #18	Khabib Nurmagomedov (18-0)	-183	7.76	21.96
LW #32	Thiago Tavares (17-4-1)	+155	22.01	36.21

Tavares has been with the UFC since 2007 fighting 12 times with a 7-4-1 record. Khabib has 2 UFC fights (both victories) and has an impressive (though I'd guess inflated) 18-0 record. Tavares will definitely be his toughest fight to date, and it's even tougher fighting in his opponent's home country. I think Nurmagomedov will get his first blemish.

Heavyweight Match [FX7-03]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 14.90
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #16	Ben Rothwell (32-8)	-108	13.80	28.70
HW #20	Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6)	-117	12.74	27.64

I've been unimpressed with either's career in the UFC although Gonzaga's KO of Cro Cop was pretty impressive (he didn't back it up with much). Gabe will be fighting at home, but I fear that will inspire him to put on a show more so than go for the win. If he does that, the fight will stay on the feet where Rothwell has the edge.

Middleweight Match [FX7-02]
FX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 15.25
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #48	C.B. Dollaway (12-4)	+150	22.88	38.13
NR	Daniel Sarafian (7-2)	-176	8.66	23.91

Why is Dollaway in the co-main event of this card let alone any card? The highlight of his last fight (his first win in three fights) was him getting a "nuggie" from Mayhem Miller. Sarafian was expected to win the middleweight championship on TUF: Brazil until he had to pull out due to injury. He hasn't fought in roughly a year and a half, but he's bound to be good enough to be C.B.

Middleweight Match [FX7-01]
FX / Main Card / Main Event
Match Points: 17.27
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #5	Vitor Belfort (21-10)	-114	15.15	32.42
MW #8	Michael Bisping (23-4)	-111	15.56	32.83

Bisping has looked better than I'd like to admit in his past two fights, and with a title shot (just for him) on the line, I'm sure he's going to be prepared. His #1 contender match against Sonnen (which he lost) was probably the best I've seen him look. Regardless, I don't want to see him in a title fight. Vitor is a knockout machine, and I can't think of a better end to the night than to see Bisping face down on the canvas with his title hopes evaporated.

Triple Wild Day

I went to the bank today to pick up a couple straps of $1s for entering into Where's George. As is my custom, I checked through the straps for "Wilds" (bills already entered into Where's George). I currently average finding a "Wild" for every 500 bills I enter. Imagine my surprise and nerdy excitement at finding three "Wilds" in one strap of 100 $1s.

The first Wild was the most interesting of the three traveling to me all the way from Glen Campbell, PA over 2 years, 196 days, 20 hours, and 11 minutes. (Click Here to View the Bill Report). The bill was marked with a simple two line stamp to the right of the portrait:

The second starting off in Santa Clara, CA (even had a stamp stating so) and took 350 Days, 5 Hours, and 25 Minutes to get to me (Click Here to View the Bill Report). This bill was the most marked up of the bunch with three stamps on the front:

... and one on the back:

The third wild traveled a cool 100 miles to me from nearby San Jose, CA. It traveled slowly to me taking 1 Year, 300 Days, 5 Hours, and 47 Minutes to make the trip (Click Here to View the Bill Report). This bill sported a talk bubble stamp and was the only one not to be stamped in red:

Finding Wilds is one of the joys of Where's George, and hopefully I extraordinary luck in finding three today doesn't lead to a drought moving forward. I've added stamp (two to the first and third) to each bill and will be sending them on their way soon. Can't wait to see where they go next.

19.00% Slugging Percentage

I hit a new Where's George milestone today: a 19.00% slugging percentage (total hits / bills entered). I realize that 19 is a strange milestone to celebrate, but frankly, each additional percentage point is difficult to obtain. Case in point, I'm currently 232 hits off from 20.00%. And while I'm working towards those 232 hits, I need to additionally get a hit for every five bills I enter. Based on the predictions for hits and bill entries I made at the beginning of the year, I expect to have a 20.85% slugging percentage by the end of the year, so it'll likely be July before I hit 20.00%.

Sadly (not really), I didn't get enough hits today compared to the number of bills I entered, so tomorrow I'll be back below 19.00%. Hopefully I'll be back at 19.00% or above within a couple of days.

The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

The second week of 2013 is down, and I'm starting to see some progress on the weight management front. I logged a descent number of miles also which certainly helped.

Starting off with Weight Management, I did a good job of sticking to my calorie target although I did have my first over calorie target day of the year (Sunday when I knew I was going to be well under for the week). I burned 3,409 calories during the week (a little over 300 less than last week, but that's pretty good considering that I worked this week but not last). Overall, I finished 2,369 calories below my target calories based on a ½ pound a week loss (so I ate back 1,040 of the calories I burned which is roughly ⅓ and better than the ⅔ I ate back last week). Add that deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 1.2 pounds. As I've said before, weight loss doesn't always work mathematically, and here are my real results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
12/31-01/07	180.5	179.6	181.6	180.6	99.0	44.8
01/07-01/14	179.6	178.2	180.6	180.0	99.2	43.4
	-0.9	-1.4	-1.0	-0.6	+0.2	-1.4

My results were pretty close to the mathematical expectation this week, but it was disappointing that my weight this morning was above average and up 1.6 from yesterday (I know large day-to-day fluctuations happen, but it's hard not to be a bit sad when the fluctuation is upwards). It's looking like Mondays may be my "heavy day" this year. Nice to see that my average fat poundage continues to decrease.

Moving onto running, I ran fewer miles this past week but completed my longest run of the year. I ran four times which I think will be typical during half-marathon training (although I may only run three times in the weeks I plan to increase the distance of my long run). Here's a look at my mileage for the week:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
4.76	3.25		4.60		9.25
Total Mileage: 21.86

I ran a little bit further last week, but I'm happy with the mileage I did. Along with getting back into half-marathon shape, I'd like to make sure I don't burn out or get hurt. And this mileage is ahead of what I needed to stay ahead of my goal of running 800 miles (roughly 16 miles a week). Here's a graphical look at the miles for the week:

Miles Ran 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

Here's a look at my progress towards the 800 mile goal:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 41.51 miles in 2013, and if I keep up that pace (I won't), I'll end the year with 1165 miles: well above my goal. I expect that my pace will continue to surpass quadruple digits until after the Shamrock'n Half Marathon.

My Where's George Week in Review: 01/06/13 - 01/12/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 36 hits in 8 States [AZ³, CA²⁶, FL, NV², OR, PA, TX, WA]. Of those hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (31) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
06	07	08	09	10	11	12
6	4	4	7	5	4	6

I came into the week with a 2 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended to the streak to 9 days.

Of the 8 States in which I received hits this past week, 4 were the first hit for that State in 2013: NV, PA, TX, WA. Overall I've received hits in 11 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 488. The newly hit counties were Saint Lucie FL, Monroe PA. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 188 Days 21 Hours 45 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 15^th on my all-time longest active list.

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22919	23026	23127	101	208	28919	115.1	23116	-14	+11
Bills with Hits	3704	3719	3750	31	46	5074	26.3	3749	+5	+1
Total Hits	4330	4350	4386	36	56	6030	32.6	4386	+3	+0

At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 6327 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to just average 114.9 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.63% so the goal is 88.63%), my percentage is now 87.66% [+0.02%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20085	20177	20273	96	188	25633	93.4	20278	+3	-5
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6326.66666666667 entries this year rather than 6000						25922	93.2	20277	+3	-4

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	784	3.40%	789	3.41%	3.51%	790	-1
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1699	7.38%	1708	7.39%	7.58%	1709	-1
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	658	2.86%	663	2.87%	2.96%	663	0
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	828	3.60%	832	3.60%	3.67%	828	+4
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1578	6.85%	1589	6.87%	7.05%	1586	+3
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.15%	2116	9.19%	2125	9.19%	9.65%	2120	+5
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1512	6.57%	1523	6.59%	6.75%	1518	+5
St. Louis "H"	739	3.22%	744	3.23%	746	3.23%	3.32%	747	-1
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	602	2.61%	608	2.63%	2.73%	609	-1
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	560	2.43%	563	2.43%	2.53%	565	-2
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	956	4.15%	958	4.14%	4.36%	964	-6

It was an excellent week of hits: the most I've gotten in a week since the first week of December. If January continues at this pace of hits, it'll make it into my top 5 of hits by month.