The three games on Thanksgiving gave me one final opportunity to look ahead an additional week in regards to the playoff picture (since calculating all of the possible result combinations for the remaining games of week 12 plus all of the games from week 13 would take a day). Here's what I can say about the playoff picture in week 13:
All of the current AFC division leaders (Houston, Baltimore, New England, and Denver) are locked in to being the divisional leader after week 13. Additionally, the Texans will still have the #1 seed regardless. On the NFC side, only Atlanta is safe. In the East, the Giants will retain if they win one of their next two. Otherwise their week 13 opponent, the Redskins, will take over. Furthermore, if the Cowboys defeat the Eagles next week, there could be a three-way tie for first (with the tiebreaker going to the 'Skins). Out West, the 49ers retain unless they lose their next two (@Saints, @Rams) while the Seahawks win their two (@Dolphins, @Bears) in which case the Seahawks take over. The North is a bit more complicated with the Packers, Bears, and Vikings all part of the discussion especially with the Vikings facing off against the Bears this week and the Packers next. If Minnesota wins both of those, they'll be leading the division. Chicago takes over if they win at least one more game than the Packers do in the next two weeks. Otherwise, Green Bay keeps the top spot.
The Colts and Steelers will most likely still be the AFC wild card teams after week 13. For either to fall out of that position they'd have to lose both games. If that happens, the most likely to take over would be the Chargers or Bengals (whichever wins their week 13 matchup) if they win both of their next two games. If they fail in that regard, the Bills, Titans, or Dolphins could move in with two wins (the Bills have the best chance followed by the Titans).
The NFC wild card positions will likely have one of the above mentioned NFC North teams. After that, most likely is the Seahawks (or 49ers if they are overtaken) followed by the Buccaneers, Saints, and a slight chance of an NFC East team.
Moving onto the "win out" and "lose out" playoff making percentages (based on simulations where one team is picked to win out, another to lose out, and the remaining games are randomly decided), a few teams saw their potential playoff fortunes change with Thursday's results:
- Buffalo drops to making the playoffs 98% and winning the AFC East 19% of the time if they win out. Those numbers are down 1% and 14% off of the Patriots win.
- Dallas will make the playoffs 98% and win the NFC East 88% of the time if they win out. These numbers are down 2% and 10% respectively with their loss to the Redskins.
- The Lions drop to just making the playoffs 24% of the time if they win out (they can no longer win the NFC North). This is down 60% from before their loss to the Texans.
- Houston has just about locked up a playoff position. They will make the playoffs 99% of the time if they lose out and even win the division 29% of the time. These numbers are up 15% and 25% respectively.
- Indianapolis will now only win the AFC South 87% of the time if they win out. This is down 6% due to the win by the Texans.
- Miami now wins the AFC East only 87% of the time if they win out down 5% with the Patriots win.
- New England upped their "lose out" percentages to making the playoffs 47% and winning the division 30% of the time. This is up 45% and 28% respectively.
- With their loss, the Jets drop to making the playoffs 69% (down 29%) and winning the division 4% (down 48%) if they win out.
- The Eagles chances raised to 84% making the playoffs and 80% winning the division if they win out. Both those numbers are up 6% with Dallas's loss.
- If Tennessee wins out, they will just win the AFC South 4% of the time down 10% from before Houston's win.
No comments:
Post a Comment