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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Eleven

Another weekend of games is complete bringing us a week closer to the playoffs. Byes have been completed, and the mad scramble to get into the playoffs is on. For the third straight week, the AFC playoff picture is unchanged. On the NFC side, all of the teams are the same, but there's one divisional leadership change along with a little bit of shuffling.

Looking at the AFC, the Patriots have extended their divisional lead to three games (the rest of the division is all tied at 4-6). The Ravens picked up a big win over rival Pittsburgh and are now up by two games. The Texans narrowly edged the Jaguars while the Colts fell to New England, and Houston now controls the South by three games. And the Broncos picked up a big win giving them the season sweep of the Chargers in the West, and they lead by three games.

And although they both lost, the Colts and Steelers still maintain control over the wild card spots. Additionally, the teams that had the opportunity to overtake them next week both lost (Miami and San Diego), so Indianapolis and Pittsburgh will both still be in these spots next week (the Bengals have the opportunity to be tied with one or both but are behind in the tiebreakers to both).

As for the divisional rankings, Houston still has a one game lead over Baltimore who controls a one game lead over both New England and Denver. And the Patriots are #3 based on head-to-head victory. And so the AFC picture is still:

As for the NFC, the Giants are still on top out East but their lead is down to a game after their bye. The Bears and Packers are tied up North, and Green Bay has the head-to-head victory and thus overtakes Chicago for the top spot. Down South, the Falcons maintained their three game lead over the Buccaneers. And in the West, the 49ers lead by a game and a half over the Seahawks.

Chicago is currently the top wild card team by having the best non-division leading victory. The sixth spot is a three-way battle between the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks. Minnesota lost to both Seattle and Tampa Bay, so they don't get the spot. The Seahawks 4-4 conference record is better than the Bucs 3-4, and so Seattle holds onto the spot.

As for the division leaders, Atlanta has a game and a half lead over San Francisco. The Niners lead Green Bay by a half game. And the Packers lead New York by a game. The NFC playoff picture is now:

Looking ahead to Week 12, the AFC division leaders and wild card teams are locked in although they could shuffle around in rankings. The Falcons and 49ers will lead their divisions after Week 12, but the East and North could change hands. The Cowboys will take over the East with a win and a loss by the Giants. And in the North, the Packers keep the lead if they win, otherwise, the winner of Chicago/Minnesota takes it. The NFC Wild Cards are also up for grabs: 8 teams could be an NFC Wild Card after Week 12 (although 2 of those 8 will end up as division leaders). I think the easiest way to look at the NFC Wild Card picture is to start with the Packers/Giants game:

  1. Giants win:

    New York leads the East. Winner of Chicago/Minnesota leads the North. Packers take one of the two Wild Card spots.

    1. Vikings win:

      The Bears take the final Wild Card spot if Seattle loses or Tampa Bay wins otherwise it goes to Seattle. (The Buccaneers negate the Seahawks tiebreaker advantage head-to-head versus the Packers. Chicago and Green Bay both have the tiebreaker advantage on Tampa Bay or the Seattle/Tampa Bay combo.)

    2. Bears win:

      The Seahawks gets the final spot if they win. If not, the spot goes to the Buccaneers if they win. If they both falter, the Cowboys move in with a win. The last shot goes to the Saints. If all four of those teams lose, Seattle gets the spot by default.

  2. Packers win:

    Green Bay continues to lead the North. Dallas takes over in the East with a win.

    1. Bears win:

      Chicago continues to hold onto the #5 seed. The final spots goes to Seattle if they win, otherwise, Tampa Bay takes it with a win. The spot then drops to New York if Dallas won. If Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Dallas all lose, the spot goes to the Saints with a win otherwise the Seahawks retain it.

    2. Vikings win:

      The Seahawks and Buccaneers get spots if they win. If either loses, Minnesota picks up a Wild Card position. If both Seattle and Tampa Bay lose, Chicago gets the final spot.

With all of the potential activity on the NFC side, it's not surprising that the games with the biggest impact on the playoff picture are the six games that will decide the NFC playoff picture:

  1. Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
  2. Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
  3. Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
  4. Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  5. Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
  6. San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

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