A bit more activity in the playoff picture than last week as the #5 seed on both sides exited the picture, the #6 seeds moved up to #5, and a couple of returning teams moved back in as the #6. Additionally the #3 and #4 on the NFC side flipped based on the loss by the New York Giants. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.
Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots were on a bye but still maintained the lead in the East. The loss by the Dolphins to the Colts gave New England a one game lead. Up North, the Ravens survived a scare against the Browns to maintain a one game lead over the Steelers. The Texans knocked off the Bills to maintain a two game lead over the surprising Colts in the South. Out West, the Broncos defeated the Bengals and still hold a game lead over the Chargers.
The two Wild Card spots go to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The Colts take the #5 seed based on the slightly better conference record: 3-2 versus 2-3.
The Texans are still tops in the AFC based on record, and the same is true for the Ravens and the #2 seed. The Patriots and Broncos are tied at 5-3, but New England has the head-to-head victory. And so, the AFC playoff picture currently is:
As for the NFC, although they lost, as did everyone else from the division, the Giants still control the divisional lead. In the North, the Bears blew out Tennessee and still own a two game lead over the Packers. The 8-0 Falcons reign supreme in the South where they still own a four game lead over the Bucs. The 49ers were off this week but still lead the NFC West.
Green Bay has the best non-division leading record at 6-3 in the NFC and thus currently control the #5 seed. The #6 spot comes down to a tie between Minnesota and Seattle, and the Seahawks defeated the Vikings this weekend, and therefore have the spot.
All of the NFC divisional leaders have different records, so placing them in order is straight-forward: Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco, then New York. Here's the current NFC picture:
For the second straight week, all of the divisional leaders are safe for next week. Additionally the Packers will be off on a bye and will hold onto the NFC's #5 seed.
Seattle will hold onto the NFC's #6 seed with a win. Otherwise the spot will go to the winner of Detroit @ Minnesota.
The AFC Wild Card spots are a bit more complicated. The current wild card teams (Indianapolis and Pittsburgh) as well as San Diego and Miami are the only candidates. The Colts keep a wild card spot with a win or a Chargers loss or a loss by both the Steelers and Dolphins. Pittsburgh keeps their spot with a win or a loss by both San Diego and Miami. The Chargers move into a wild card spot with a win and a loss by either the Colts or Steelers. And Miami take a wild card spot with a win and a loss by Pittsburgh and a loss by either Indianapolis or San Diego.
Week Ten is light on match-ups between teams in or trying to get in the playoff picture. Houston travels to Chicago in a match-up of the AFC's #1 versus the NFC's #2. The other game of interest (Detroit @ Minnesota) may not affect the playoff picture if Seattle can defeat the Jets at home. Fortunately, Week 11 looks like it will have much more for big match-ups.
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