This is a follow on to last week's "further look ahead". Once again I'll be looking two weeks ahead at which teams could be part of the playoff picture. This will be the last time I'll be able to completely do this for this season since bye weeks are done after week 11 and it takes 8 days to simulate all of the possibilities for 32 games (it took 2 days to simulate all of the possibilities for the 30 games across weeks 11 & 12). I could still produce the numbers if I eliminate games that "don't matter", but sometimes a game that doesn't matter affects other team's tiebreakers. I have a couple alternative ways to look ahead that I'll introduce below. But first, a look a the possibilities for the playoff picture at the end of week 12.
Starting off with the AFC, the Patriots will be leading the East regardless of what happens over the next two weeks. In the North, the winner of the Sunday Night Football game between the Ravens and the Steelers will have the lead unless Pittsburgh loses in week 12 while Baltimore wins. In that case, the Ravens would reclaim the top spot. As for the South, the Texans will keep the lead unless they lose both of their games and the Colts win both of theirs. Same thing out West with the Broncos keeping the lead unless they lose two while the Chargers win two although San Diego can help their cause in their week 11 matchup with Denver.
The Wild Card pictures is a bit less clear. Houston and Baltimore would both drop into a wild card spot if they lose their divisional lead. Otherwise, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh will mostly likely have the two spots unless they lose twice in which case a spot could go to Miami or Denver/San Diego (whoever is not leading the West).
In the NFC, the Giants will be leading the East unless they lose two and the Cowboys win two in which case Dallas takes over. The North has the only three-way race for the divisional lead at the end of week 12: The Bears are most likely to be the leader, but they will lose the lead if they lose both of their next two games or if they lose one game and the Packers win both. Green Bay takes over if they win two and the Bears lose one. The Vikings take over if the Bears lose both (the second would be to Minnesota) and the Packers don't win both. The Falcons will be leading the South regardless after the next two weeks. Out West, the 49ers will maintain the lead unless they lose both games while the Seahawks win their two.
As for the Wild Card, none of the potential division leaders are guaranteed a wild card spot if they fail to be division leader. Chicago has the best chance if be a wild card if they falter, followed by Green Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco. As for the teams not currently in the picture that could move in, the most likely is Minnesota followed by the Buccaneers. New York trails those teams if they lose the lead in the East. The NFC Wild Card long shots for week 12 are New Orleans and Dallas followed by Detroit and Arizona as the extreme long shots.
Not satisfied with the thought that I wouldn't be able to provide the above outlook after this week, I started brainstorming alternative ways to generate a further look ahead. My favorite idea was running a series of simulations that had one team set to win the rest of their games while another team was set to lose the rest and all other games were randomly decided. This would tell me which teams were guaranteed to win their division and/or make the playoffs if they won the rest of their games. Any team not at 100% no longer had control over whether or not they made the playoffs, and a team at 0% was most likely eliminated (there is some margin of error in my percentages, but I couldn't tell you what it was).
Based on those simulations, there are 13 teams that are guaranteed to win their division if they win out: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. There are an additional 6 guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out: Dallas (98% division winner), Seattle (98%), Tampa Bay (96%), San Diego (93%), Arizona (87%), Detroit (70%), and New Orleans (64%). Three teams round up to 100% making the playoffs by winning out: St. Louis (99.97% playoffs; 85% division winner), Washington (99.94%; 96%), and Cincinnati (99.71%; 53%). The next five teams are most likely in if they win out: Philadelphia (99%; 96%), Tennessee (99%; 22%), Oakland (98%; 69%), New York Jets (98%; 62%), and Buffalo (97%; 48%). Cleveland follows that crew and is in trouble only making the playoffs in 65% of the simulations where they win out and winning the division in just 5%. And at the bottom, the teams that are pretty much out of it are Kansas City (26%; 19%), Carolina (22%; 7%), and Jacksonville (21%; 0.01%).
Using the data from all of the above simulations, we can see a ranking by team of who is most likely to win their division and/or make the playoffs (keep in mind that each team auto-wins out in 3.1% of the simulations and likewise, auto-loses out in 3.1%):
| Division | Playoffs | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC South | Houston Texans | 74.8% | 96.1% |
| NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | 80.4% | 90.4% |
| AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | 65.4% | 89.2% |
| AFC East | New England Patriots | 72.7% | 79.9% |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 73.3% | 79.6% |
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | 44.6% | 76.9% |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 58.5% | 74.5% |
| AFC South | Indianapolis Colts | 23.9% | 71.2% |
| AFC North | Pittsburgh Steelers | 31.4% | 64.9% |
| NFC East | New York Giants | 53.9% | 63.6% |
| NFC North | Green Bay Packers | 28.2% | 60.0% |
| NFC West | Seattle Seahawks | 26.5% | 49.4% |
| NFC North | Minnesota Vikings | 23.3% | 46.1% |
| AFC West | San Diego Chargers | 19.7% | 32.1% |
| NFC South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14.2% | 30.4% |
| NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | 23.3% | 26.6% |
| AFC East | Miami Dolphins | 18.5% | 24.7% |
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 5.1% | 17.2% |
| NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | 8.9% | 15.4% |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.0% | 14.5% |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | 3.8% | 13.8% |
| AFC South | Tennessee Titans | 1.3% | 13.3% |
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 12.0% | 12.4% |
| NFC East | Washington Redskins | 10.8% | 12.1% |
| AFC East | New York Jets | 5.4% | 10.6% |
| AFC West | Oakland Raiders | 6.2% | 10.3% |
| NFC West | St. Louis Rams | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| AFC East | Buffalo Bills | 3.3% | 8.6% |
| AFC North | Cleveland Browns | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| NFC South | Carolina Panthers | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| AFC South | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.0% | 0.8% |
I'm not sure that this table really tells us anything useful, but it could be interesting to see how these number change week-to-week. I find the how often a team makes the playoff when they win out to be much more interesting. Might be good to add how often a team makes the playoffs when they lose out to add the "playoff lock" side of the story.
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