One of the best things about the NFL is that the vast majority of games have an impact on the playoffs due to how few games are played each season. So even a game between the 4-5 Miami Dolphins and the 3-6 Buffalo Bills (a.k.a. this past Thursday Night Football game) could effect who makes the post-season.
Obviously the game has no impact on the current picture as neither team is currently in it. However, Miami had an outside chance of moving into the playoff picture after the Week 12 games, but with their loss, that chance has evaporated. But the bigger effect is felt in the end of year chances.
Prior to the game, if the Dolphins won out, they'd win the AFC East. Now if they win out, they'll capture the division crown in 96% of the possible outcomes of the season. And there is a possibility (although slight), that Miami could win out and miss the playoffs completely.
Buffalo's post-season chances if they win out haven't changed (since this game went "as planned" while no other games have been played that would affect them). However, a couple of other teams benefited from the Bills win: the Jets and the Browns (!). The Jets saw their percentage of divisional championships rise by 3% (to 65%) if they win out. The Browns will now make the playoffs in an additional 2% of their possible outcomes (67%) if they win out. I'm not completely sure why Buffalo's win helped out Cleveland: my guess is that it's easier to the Browns to jump past both teams at 4-6 then to get by Miami at 5-5. No other team saw it's chances change by at least 1%.
Looking at all of the simulations, Miami's divisional and playoff chances dropped 5.8% and 9.1% respectively to 12.7% and 15.7%. Divisionally, the Patriots picked up the majority of what the Dolphins lost (3.3%) and now win the East 76.0% of the time. Buffalo picked up 1.5% to increase to 4.8% and New York picked up the remaining 1.0% to increase to 6.4%. As for just making the playoffs, Buffalo picks up 4.0% of what Miami lost (12.6%), the Patriots picked up 1.8% (81.7% - note that the 1.8% is less than the 3.3% they picked up towards winning the conference, so some of New England's additionally division wins were conversions from being a playoff team), and the Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Titans, Broncos, and Chargers all picked up a fraction of a percent.
Another good way to look at how one game affects the rest of the season is to look back at the season opener. Before the season starts, every team has a 25.0% chance (based on random game outcomes) to win their division and a 37.5% chance to make the playoffs. By losing that game to the Cowboys, the Giants divisional change dropped by a third to 16.7% and playoff chances dropped 10% to 27.5%. The Cowboys picked up the majority from both of those numbers although the Eagles and Redskins were also slight beneficiaries.
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