NFL Playoff Picture: Week Twelve

Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and once again, there wasn't a lot of change in the playoff picture. Time is running out on teams on the outside looking in.

In the AFC, all of the division leaders currently have at least a three game lead with five games to go. The Patriots lead the Dolphins in the East, the Ravens lead the Steelers and Bengals in the North, and the Texans lead the Colts in the South. The Broncos lead the Chargers in the West, but Denver has a four (rather than three) game lead. It's highly unlikely that even of the AFC's division leaders will get toppled at this point.

Indianapolis leads the wild card race in the AFC by virtue of having the best non-division leading record. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are tied for the last spot, and the Steelers currently have the tiebreaker based on have won their head-to-head match-up.

Houston has the top spot based on best record. Baltimore has the second spot for the same reason. New England and Denver are tied at 8-3 for the third spot, and since the Patriots beat the Broncos this season, they get the spot. The AFC playoff picture is currently:

On the NFC side, the Giants now have a two game lead over the Cowboys and Redskins. The Bears have reclaimed the lead in the North by one game over the Packers. The Falcons extended their lead in the South to four games over the Buccaneers with their win in Tampa Bay. And the 49ers lead the Seahawks by 2.5 games in the West.

Green Bay has the top wild card spot by having the best non-division leading record. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Seattle are all tied at 6-5 in the battle for the second wild card spot. The Seahawks currently have the spot based on tiebreakers: the Vikings gets eliminated since they lost to both teams; Seattle edges Tampa Bay based on conference record. Any of those three teams could have improved their position with a win.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record. Atlanta's at the top leading San Francisco by 1.5 games. The Niners have a half game lead on Chicago, and the Bears have a one game lead on New York. The NFC playoff picture is:

Five of the six playoff spots in the AFC are locked up through next week: all of the divisional leaders and the Colts are safe. The final playoff spot is up for grabs. The Steelers will keep it with a win. If Pittsburgh loses, the Bengals take it if they win. And if both of those teams lose, Miami moves into the spot with a win. If all three of those teams win, Pittsburgh retains the spot.

On the NFC side, all of the divisional leaders will still be in the picture next week (the Bears could lose their division lead but would fall into a wild card spot). The wild card picture is a bit more messy. It's a lot easier to digest if we start with the Packers/Vikings game:

• If the Packers win, the top wild card spot will go to either Chicago or Green Bay (whichever of the two isn't leading the North: the Bears will still be on top if they win). The second spot goes to the first team on this list that wins: Seahawks, Buccaneers, Redskins, Saints, then Cowboys. If all five of those teams lose, Seattle retains the spot.
• If the Vikings win, Seattle and Tampa Bay get the first crack at the wild card spots. If either of those teams lose, Minnesota takes a wild card spot. If both lose, Green Bay takes the final wild card spot.