NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week Twelve

Week 12 of the NFL season is done, and we now have our first "eliminated" team: the Kansas City Chiefs can no longer make the playoffs. There are now 7 teams (up from 3 last week) that can no longer win their division. No team has yet fully secured a playoff birth (although Houston is very close).

As a reminder, these numbers are generated by "playing" out the rest of the season using the following logic: one team is chosen to win out while another is chosen to lose out and the rest of the games are decided at random. I do a number of simulations for each auto-winner/auto-loser combo and report back the results here.

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Starting off with the "win out" playoff percentages, there are nine teams that are guaranteed to win their division if they win their remaining five games:

• Atlanta
• Baltimore
• Chicago
• Denver
• Green Bay
• Houston
• New England
• New York Giants
• San Francisco

Additionally, there are five teams that are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out (division winning percentage in parenthesis):

• Cincinnati (31%)
• Indianapolis (87%)
• Minnesota (93%)
• Pittsburgh (31%)
• Seattle (67%)

Additionally there are two teams whose "making the playoffs percentage" rounds up to 100% (these team could miss the playoffs if they win out, but it's highly unlikely):

• Tampa Bay (31%)
• Washington (93%).

Next up we have the teams with an above 90% shot at making the playoffs if they win out (playoff making percentage followed by division winning percentage in parenthesis):

• Miami (99%, 87%)
• Dallas (98%, 80%)
• St. Louis (94%, 28%)
• New Orleans (99%, 9%)
• San Diego (91%, 6%)

Following those teams are the teams that make the playoffs at least 50% of the time if they win out:

• Tennessee (79%, 0%)
• New York Jets (62%, 4%)
• Buffalo (59%, 6%)

These next teams are more likely than not to miss the playoffs, but they aren't out of it yet:

• Arizona (43%, 7%)
• Detroit (37%, 0%)
• Philadelphia (26%, 25%)
• Cleveland (20%, 0%)
• Oakland (19%, 0%)

And finally, the two teams that are pretty much dead but with a miracle could make the postseason:

• Jacksonville (0.8%, 0%)
• Carolina (0.2%, 0%)

As I mentioned at the top, Kansas City is the only team completely out of the picture.

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Moving onto the numbers for teams that are starting to "lock up" a playoff spot (those teams that make the playoffs some percentage of the time when they "lose out"), there are ten teams now on this list, although four of those teams make the playoffs while losing out less than 1% of the time (so it's not very likely):

• Houston (99.8%, 13%)
• Baltimore (96%, 37%)
• Denver (96%, 94%)
• Atlanta (96%, 62%)
• New England (36%, 16%)
• San Francisco (29%, 16%)
• Indianapolis (0.6%, 0%)
• Chicago (0.3%, 0%)
• New York Giants (0.2%, 0.2%)
• Green Bay (>0.0%, 0%)

There's a good chance that there'll be at least a few teams locked in after week 13.

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And finally, here's the data concatenated from all of the above simulations showing (in descending order) what percentage of the time each team makes the playoffs and wins their divisions along with the change since last week. This shows relatively who's most and least likely to make the playoffs/win their division and who is improving/decreasing their odds:

			Division	Playoffs	Div Δ	PO Δ
1.	AFC South	Houston Texans	87.2%	<100.0%	1.7%	0.8%
2.	AFC West	Denver Broncos	99.7%	99.8%	5.8%	4.6%
3.	AFC North	Baltimore Ravens	93.2%	99.7%	10.0%	3.6%
4.	NFC South	Atlanta Falcons	96.2%	99.7%	13.7%	5.5%
5.	AFC East	New England Patriots	87.5%	94.9%	6.1%	6.1%
6.	NFC West	San Francisco 49ers	87.4%	94.8%	15.2%	10.6%
7.	NFC North	Chicago Bears	51.6%	83.9%	19.8%	18.4%
8.	AFC South	Indianapolis Colts	12.8%	79.5%	-0.9%	19.1%
9.	NFC East	New York Giants	67.2%	78.5%	17.8%	18.3%
10.	NFC North	Green Bay Packers	33.8%	66.7%	-8.6%	-5.5%
11.	NFC West	Seattle Seahawks	10.0%	40.2%	-12.4%	-6.0%
12.	AFC North	Pittsburgh Steelers	3.7%	40.0%	-9.3%	-14.3%
13.	AFC North	Cincinnati Bengals	3.1%	36.3%	-0.7%	12.8%
14.	NFC North	Minnesota Vikings	14.6%	34.3%	-10.8%	-8.1%
15.	NFC South	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.3%	29.3%	-10.4%	-9.4%
16.	NFC East	Washington Redskins	17.3%	23.6%	3.2%	7.5%
17.	AFC East	Miami Dolphins	11.9%	20.5%	1.9%	6.1%
18.	NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	13.7%	18.6%	-17.2%	-16.1%
19.	NFC South	New Orleans Saints	0.6%	14.9%	-3.3%	-7.5%
20.	AFC West	San Diego Chargers	0.3%	9.7%	-3.2%	-8.8%
21.	NFC West	St. Louis Rams	2.2%	8.5%	0.1%	3.7%
22.	AFC South	Tennessee Titans	0.0%	7.1%	-0.8%	-7.0%
23.	AFC East	New York Jets	0.2%	5.4%	-5.6%	-9.6%
24.	AFC East	Buffalo Bills	0.3%	4.6%	-2.4%	-8.0%
25.	NFC West	Arizona Cardinals	0.5%	2.8%	-2.9%	-4.4%
26.	NFC North	Detroit Lions	0.0%	2.3%	-0.3%	-3.0%
27.	NFC East	Philadelphia Eagles	1.8%	1.9%	-3.9%	-4.0%
28.	AFC North	Cleveland Browns	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.2%
29.	AFC West	Oakland Raiders	0.0%	1.1%	-2.4%	-5.4%
30.	AFC South	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.0%	>0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
31.	NFC South	Carolina Panthers	0.0%	>0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
32.	AFC West	Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Twelve

Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and once again, there wasn't a lot of change in the playoff picture. Time is running out on teams on the outside looking in.

In the AFC, all of the division leaders currently have at least a three game lead with five games to go. The Patriots lead the Dolphins in the East, the Ravens lead the Steelers and Bengals in the North, and the Texans lead the Colts in the South. The Broncos lead the Chargers in the West, but Denver has a four (rather than three) game lead. It's highly unlikely that even of the AFC's division leaders will get toppled at this point.

Indianapolis leads the wild card race in the AFC by virtue of having the best non-division leading record. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are tied for the last spot, and the Steelers currently have the tiebreaker based on have won their head-to-head match-up.

Houston has the top spot based on best record. Baltimore has the second spot for the same reason. New England and Denver are tied at 8-3 for the third spot, and since the Patriots beat the Broncos this season, they get the spot. The AFC playoff picture is currently:

On the NFC side, the Giants now have a two game lead over the Cowboys and Redskins. The Bears have reclaimed the lead in the North by one game over the Packers. The Falcons extended their lead in the South to four games over the Buccaneers with their win in Tampa Bay. And the 49ers lead the Seahawks by 2.5 games in the West.

Green Bay has the top wild card spot by having the best non-division leading record. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Seattle are all tied at 6-5 in the battle for the second wild card spot. The Seahawks currently have the spot based on tiebreakers: the Vikings gets eliminated since they lost to both teams; Seattle edges Tampa Bay based on conference record. Any of those three teams could have improved their position with a win.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record. Atlanta's at the top leading San Francisco by 1.5 games. The Niners have a half game lead on Chicago, and the Bears have a one game lead on New York. The NFC playoff picture is:

Five of the six playoff spots in the AFC are locked up through next week: all of the divisional leaders and the Colts are safe. The final playoff spot is up for grabs. The Steelers will keep it with a win. If Pittsburgh loses, the Bengals take it if they win. And if both of those teams lose, Miami moves into the spot with a win. If all three of those teams win, Pittsburgh retains the spot.

On the NFC side, all of the divisional leaders will still be in the picture next week (the Bears could lose their division lead but would fall into a wild card spot). The wild card picture is a bit more messy. It's a lot easier to digest if we start with the Packers/Vikings game:

• If the Packers win, the top wild card spot will go to either Chicago or Green Bay (whichever of the two isn't leading the North: the Bears will still be on top if they win). The second spot goes to the first team on this list that wins: Seahawks, Buccaneers, Redskins, Saints, then Cowboys. If all five of those teams lose, Seattle retains the spot.
• If the Vikings win, Seattle and Tampa Bay get the first crack at the wild card spots. If either of those teams lose, Minnesota takes a wild card spot. If both lose, Green Bay takes the final wild card spot.

My Where's George Week in Review: 11/18/12 - 11/24/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 22 hits in 5 States [CA¹⁸, ID, LA, OR, TX]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I still have hits in 478 counties with none new this week.

Of those 22 hits, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (16) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 64 Days 10 Hours 27 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
18	19	20	21	22	23	24
4	5	2	2	4	4	1

7 more days of hits brings my current hit streak to 49 (my sixth longest all-time).

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, all of these stats were below expectation for the week but I'm still way ahead on the year:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22351	22419	68	5699	21720	95.6	21215	-28	+1204
Bills with Hits	2430	3566	3582	16	1152	3445	19.4	3342	-3	+240
Total Hits	2799	4153	4175	22	1376	4030	23.5	3906	-2	+269

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.55% [+1.26%]. I'm feeling pretty comfortable that I won't be erasing the buffer I've built up for this goal:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19562	19627	65	5200	18959	61.6	19593	+3	+34
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6340 entries this year rather than 5000						20128	61.1	19552	+4	+75

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, it wasn't a good week for this goal, but there's no way that 2003A will surge back into the lead at this point:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3874	3878	4	275		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	31	2582	-7	+613
2009	1339	4781	4809	28	3470		Actual	24	3195

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", every FRB held steady or moved in the right direction expect Minneapolis which only slightly went the wrong way:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10701	47.88%	10731	47.87%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11169	+438
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	764	3.42%	767	3.42%	> 2.8%	2.85%	642	+125
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	789	3.53%	795	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	552	+243
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	722	3.23%	727	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	529	+198
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	644	2.88%	646	2.88%	> 2.2%	2.25%	505	+141
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	598	2.68%	598	2.67%	> 2.1%	2.15%	483	+115
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	552	2.47%	554	2.47%	> 1.7%	1.75%	394	+160

This week was no where near as good as last week for hits, and it's unlikely I've have a massive hit week until next year as hits seem to decrease around the holidays. On the plus side, the holidays provide good opportunities for my bills to travel.

Building a Puzzle on Top of Another: Not a Good Idea

A couple weeks ago, I decided to put together some of my old puzzles (from the Buried Blueprints series - been out of print for a while), glue them, frame them, and hang them on the walls of my "man cave". After completing the first puzzle (a King Arthur themed puzzle), I decided to move onto the next puzzle before figuring out the glue/framing process.

I couldn't find any cardboard or similar thin, flat surface for moving the first puzzle, so I made the decision to build the second puzzle directly on top of the first. While this worked, visibly it made it a bit harder to put the puzzle together as the gaps were not quickly evident:

I eventually did finish the puzzle, but I won't be starting on the next one until I at least figure out where to move and store these completed puzzles. More likely, I'll get these two clued and backed (but not necessarily framed) before continuing on.

NFL Playoff Possibilities After Thanksgiving Football

The three games on Thanksgiving gave me one final opportunity to look ahead an additional week in regards to the playoff picture (since calculating all of the possible result combinations for the remaining games of week 12 plus all of the games from week 13 would take a day). Here's what I can say about the playoff picture in week 13:

All of the current AFC division leaders (Houston, Baltimore, New England, and Denver) are locked in to being the divisional leader after week 13. Additionally, the Texans will still have the #1 seed regardless. On the NFC side, only Atlanta is safe. In the East, the Giants will retain if they win one of their next two. Otherwise their week 13 opponent, the Redskins, will take over. Furthermore, if the Cowboys defeat the Eagles next week, there could be a three-way tie for first (with the tiebreaker going to the 'Skins). Out West, the 49ers retain unless they lose their next two (@Saints, @Rams) while the Seahawks win their two (@Dolphins, @Bears) in which case the Seahawks take over. The North is a bit more complicated with the Packers, Bears, and Vikings all part of the discussion especially with the Vikings facing off against the Bears this week and the Packers next. If Minnesota wins both of those, they'll be leading the division. Chicago takes over if they win at least one more game than the Packers do in the next two weeks. Otherwise, Green Bay keeps the top spot.

The Colts and Steelers will most likely still be the AFC wild card teams after week 13. For either to fall out of that position they'd have to lose both games. If that happens, the most likely to take over would be the Chargers or Bengals (whichever wins their week 13 matchup) if they win both of their next two games. If they fail in that regard, the Bills, Titans, or Dolphins could move in with two wins (the Bills have the best chance followed by the Titans).

The NFC wild card positions will likely have one of the above mentioned NFC North teams. After that, most likely is the Seahawks (or 49ers if they are overtaken) followed by the Buccaneers, Saints, and a slight chance of an NFC East team.

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Moving onto the "win out" and "lose out" playoff making percentages (based on simulations where one team is picked to win out, another to lose out, and the remaining games are randomly decided), a few teams saw their potential playoff fortunes change with Thursday's results:

1. Buffalo drops to making the playoffs 98% and winning the AFC East 19% of the time if they win out. Those numbers are down 1% and 14% off of the Patriots win.
2. Dallas will make the playoffs 98% and win the NFC East 88% of the time if they win out. These numbers are down 2% and 10% respectively with their loss to the Redskins.
3. The Lions drop to just making the playoffs 24% of the time if they win out (they can no longer win the NFC North). This is down 60% from before their loss to the Texans.
4. Houston has just about locked up a playoff position. They will make the playoffs 99% of the time if they lose out and even win the division 29% of the time. These numbers are up 15% and 25% respectively.
5. Indianapolis will now only win the AFC South 87% of the time if they win out. This is down 6% due to the win by the Texans.
6. Miami now wins the AFC East only 87% of the time if they win out down 5% with the Patriots win.
7. New England upped their "lose out" percentages to making the playoffs 47% and winning the division 30% of the time. This is up 45% and 28% respectively.
8. With their loss, the Jets drop to making the playoffs 69% (down 29%) and winning the division 4% (down 48%) if they win out.
9. The Eagles chances raised to 84% making the playoffs and 80% winning the division if they win out. Both those numbers are up 6% with Dallas's loss.
10. If Tennessee wins out, they will just win the AFC South 4% of the time down 10% from before Houston's win.

2012 Folsom Turkey Trot

There's no better way to start a day of over-indulgance (aka Thanksgiving) than going for a long run to pre-burn off a portion of the calories I would be eating later. Thankfully, it was a beautiful day for the run (last year, there was a threat of rain, but it didn't start until after the run was done) especially since there have been a couple days of rain recently.

The event was sold out at 4,000 participants. I'm not sure whether or not there were that many people there, but there were definitely more 10K runners at the event than there were at the Run for Courage two months ago. Seemed like there were an awful lot of 5K-ers also.

Since I hadn't ran much since the Four Bridges Half last month, I wasn't expecting to challenge my PR. I figured a finish at around 56 minutes would be a good target: a few minutes slower than my PR but better than my second best 10K.

As I usually do, I started off fast - probably too fast. At time my pace in the first mile dipped below 8 minutes/mile. I finished the first mile in 8:02, and I figured that my pace would rapidly decline from there. For comparison, I finished the first mile of my 10K PR in 8:30, and I needed to beat an average of 8:32.4 to set a new PR. So I had a lead of 27-29 seconds on my PR pace after one mile.

As expected, my second mile was slower than the first but I completed the mile in 8:28. This was still ahead of the overall pace needed for a PR but slower than I completed the second mile in my PR (8:25). Additionally as of late, I've been completing the second mile a few seconds faster than my first.

Things really slowed down in the third mile. Although I tried to get myself to a 9:00 mile pace, I finished the third mile in 9:15: over 45 seconds slower than the previous mile. My fourth mile was only slight slower than the third (9:20).

Shortly after finishing the fourth mile, the 10K and 5K courses converged. For roughly a tenth of a mile the courses were separated by cones with the 5Kers on the left and the 10Kers on the right. This worked pretty well. Once we got after that point, it got to be a bit of a mess: the 5Kers at this point were the walkers, and they were spread across the path with some hanging to the left, others to the right, and some blocking the middle. At this point, for those of us running the 10K, the course became an obstical course. I spent most of the final miles weaving around the walkers. This wasn't unexpected, as the race organizers warned that the course was not a fast one due to where the two courses converged. Regardless, I still had a descent pace for the final two miles.

Similar to the Run for Courage two months ago, my tracking device had the course at a tenth of a mile short. The full comparision between the Turkey Trot and my PR in the Run for Courage can be seen in this table:

	Pace		+/-
Mile	Record	Actual	Mile	Overall
1	08:30	08:03	+27	+27
2	08:25	08:28	-3	+24
3	08:51	09:15	-24	-1
4	08:53	09:20	-27	-28
5	09:06	09:41	-35	-62
6	08:39	09:37	-58	-120
+	00:41	00:46	-5	-125

I'm pretty sure that I overran the first mile, but I'm not sure how much of a mistake that was. I find that getting a quick start is motivating for the second half of the run as I want to keep going with the quick pace. Of course, there's the converse to that argument which states that I can't get myself to maintain the speed I want if I've used up my legs. I think for my next 10K, I should target a 8:30 first mile and see what happens from there.

NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week Eleven

With six weeks to go in the 2012 NFL season, all of the teams are still alive in the playoff hunt (although a couple are just barely) and only three teams have been eliminated from their divisional race.

As a reminder, these numbers are generated by "playing" out the rest of the season using the following logic: one team is chosen to win out while another is chosen to lose out and the rest of the games are decided at random. I do a number of simulations for each auto-winner/auto-loser combo and report back the results here.

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Starting off with the "win out" playoff percentages, there are ten teams that are guaranteed to win their division if they win their remaining six games: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota, New England, New York [Giants], and San Francisco. That number is down three from last week. Interestingly, both of the team currently not leading their division that appear in that list are in the NFC North. There are four additional teams that are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out: Seattle (who would win their division 97% of the time), Tampa Bay (93%), Indianapolis (93%), and Pittsburgh (83%). There are seven team whose "making the playoffs" percentage rounds up to 100% (these team could miss the playoffs if they win out, but it's highly unlikely): New Orleans (49% division winner), Dallas (98%), San Diego (33%), Washington (96%), Cinncinati (46%), Tennessee (14%), and Miami (92%). Those teams were listed in order of highest "making the playoffs" percentage to lowest although the likely margin of error probably negates any value of looking at that order.

The remaining eleven teams are in danger of seeing their playoff hopes slip away although some much more than others. The top tier (>90%) of those teams and certainly still alive are Buffalo (99% making the playoffs; 33% winning the division), New York [Jets] (98%, 52%), and Arizona (94%, 45%). The next tier (>75%) and most likely still in it are Oakland (86%, 28%), St. Louis (84%, 36%), Detroit (84%, 8%), and Philadelphia (78%, 74%). Cleveland is next with a 22% chance of making the playoff although they have no hope of winning the division. Kansas City's only hope of making the playoffs is to win the division, and they'll only do that 3% of the times that they win out. Jacksonville is eliminated from winning the AFC South and only makes it as a wild card in 1% of the simulations that they win out. But at least they are not Carolina: Carolina can't win the NFC South and their wild card chances round down to 0%. The Panthers are still technically alive, but not by much.

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Next we'll look at the "lose out" playoff percentages. A team that still makes the playoffs even if they lose the rest of their games is one that is in the process of "locking up" a playoff position. No team has fully locked up a playoff position yet, but six are on their way towards that goal.

At the top of the list is the Texans who made the playoffs in 84% of the simulations where they lost out. The majority of those was as a wild card as their division winning percentage when they lose out was 4%. Houston is likely just a win away from being a playoff lock. The Broncos are next on the list at 43% for both making the playoffs and winning their division (there is a fractional difference in percentage between the two). The Ravens are next making the playoffs 35% of the time if they lose out from here, and they capture their division crown 7%. The Falcons are the first NFC team on the list. Atlanta will make the playoffs 11% of the time if they lose out and win the division 2%. The Patriots will make the playoffs and win their division (again a slight difference between the two) 2% of the time if they lose out. And finally, the 49ers have the ability to win the NFC West while losing out although it happened in less than 1% of the simulations.

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Using the data from all of the above simulations, I've created a table (in descending order of making the playoffs) of what percentage each team makes the playoffs and wins their divisions along with the change since last week. This shows relatively who's most and least likely to make the playoffs/win their division and who is improving/decreasing their odds:

			Division	Playoffs	Div Δ	PO Δ
1.	AFC South	Houston Texans	85.5%	99.2%	10.7%	3.1%
2.	AFC North	Baltimore Ravens	83.2%	96.2%	17.8%	6.9%
3.	AFC West	Denver Broncos	93.9%	95.2%	20.6%	15.6%
4.	NFC South	Atlanta Falcons	82.5%	94.2%	2.0%	3.8%
5.	AFC East	New England Patriots	81.5%	88.8%	8.8%	8.9%
6.	NFC West	San Francisco 49ers	72.2%	84.3%	13.7%	9.8%
7.	NFC North	Green Bay Packers	42.5%	72.2%	14.2%	12.1%
8.	NFC North	Chicago Bears	31.8%	65.5%	-12.8%	-11.4%
9.	AFC South	Indianapolis Colts	13.7%	60.4%	-10.2%	-10.8%
10.	NFC East	New York Giants	49.3%	60.2%	-4.6%	-3.4%
11.	AFC North	Pittsburgh Steelers	13.0%	54.3%	-18.4%	-10.5%
12.	NFC West	Seattle Seahawks	22.3%	46.2%	-4.2%	-3.2%
13.	NFC North	Minnesota Vikings	25.4%	42.4%	2.1%	-3.6%
14.	NFC South	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.7%	38.7%	-0.5%	8.3%
15.	NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	30.9%	34.7%	7.6%	8.1%
16.	AFC North	Cincinnati Bengals	3.7%	23.6%	0.7%	9.1%
17.	NFC South	New Orleans Saints	3.9%	22.4%	-1.2%	5.2%
18.	AFC West	San Diego Chargers	3.6%	18.5%	-16.1%	-13.5%
19.	NFC East	Washington Redskins	14.1%	16.1%	3.3%	4.0%
20.	AFC East	New York Jets	5.8%	15.0%	0.3%	4.5%
21.	AFC East	Miami Dolphins	10.0%	14.3%	-8.5%	-10.4%
22.	AFC South	Tennessee Titans	0.8%	14.1%	-0.5%	0.8%
23.	AFC East	Buffalo Bills	2.7%	12.6%	-0.6%	4.0%
24.	NFC West	Arizona Cardinals	3.4%	7.2%	-5.5%	-8.2%
25.	AFC West	Oakland Raiders	2.4%	6.6%	-3.8%	-3.7%
26.	NFC East	Philadelphia Eagles	5.7%	5.9%	-6.3%	-6.5%
27.	NFC North	Detroit Lions	0.3%	5.3%	-3.5%	-8.5%
28.	NFC West	St. Louis Rams	2.1%	4.7%	-4.0%	-5.4%
29.	AFC North	Cleveland Browns	0.0%	1.0%	-0.2%	-2.0%
30.	AFC West	Kansas City Chiefs	0.2%	0.2%	-0.7%	-0.9%
31.	AFC South	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.0%	>0.0%	0.0%	-0.8%
32.	NFC South	Carolina Panthers	0.0%	>0.0%	-0.3%	-0.9%

I'm still not convinced that this information tells us much, but I'm thinking it does show relative difficulties of making the playoffs between various teams. Meaning that the lower a team is on the list, the more things that have to fall correctly into place for that team to make the playoffs.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Eleven

Another weekend of games is complete bringing us a week closer to the playoffs. Byes have been completed, and the mad scramble to get into the playoffs is on. For the third straight week, the AFC playoff picture is unchanged. On the NFC side, all of the teams are the same, but there's one divisional leadership change along with a little bit of shuffling.

Looking at the AFC, the Patriots have extended their divisional lead to three games (the rest of the division is all tied at 4-6). The Ravens picked up a big win over rival Pittsburgh and are now up by two games. The Texans narrowly edged the Jaguars while the Colts fell to New England, and Houston now controls the South by three games. And the Broncos picked up a big win giving them the season sweep of the Chargers in the West, and they lead by three games.

And although they both lost, the Colts and Steelers still maintain control over the wild card spots. Additionally, the teams that had the opportunity to overtake them next week both lost (Miami and San Diego), so Indianapolis and Pittsburgh will both still be in these spots next week (the Bengals have the opportunity to be tied with one or both but are behind in the tiebreakers to both).

As for the divisional rankings, Houston still has a one game lead over Baltimore who controls a one game lead over both New England and Denver. And the Patriots are #3 based on head-to-head victory. And so the AFC picture is still:

As for the NFC, the Giants are still on top out East but their lead is down to a game after their bye. The Bears and Packers are tied up North, and Green Bay has the head-to-head victory and thus overtakes Chicago for the top spot. Down South, the Falcons maintained their three game lead over the Buccaneers. And in the West, the 49ers lead by a game and a half over the Seahawks.

Chicago is currently the top wild card team by having the best non-division leading victory. The sixth spot is a three-way battle between the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks. Minnesota lost to both Seattle and Tampa Bay, so they don't get the spot. The Seahawks 4-4 conference record is better than the Bucs 3-4, and so Seattle holds onto the spot.

As for the division leaders, Atlanta has a game and a half lead over San Francisco. The Niners lead Green Bay by a half game. And the Packers lead New York by a game. The NFC playoff picture is now:

Looking ahead to Week 12, the AFC division leaders and wild card teams are locked in although they could shuffle around in rankings. The Falcons and 49ers will lead their divisions after Week 12, but the East and North could change hands. The Cowboys will take over the East with a win and a loss by the Giants. And in the North, the Packers keep the lead if they win, otherwise, the winner of Chicago/Minnesota takes it. The NFC Wild Cards are also up for grabs: 8 teams could be an NFC Wild Card after Week 12 (although 2 of those 8 will end up as division leaders). I think the easiest way to look at the NFC Wild Card picture is to start with the Packers/Giants game:

1. Giants win:

   New York leads the East. Winner of Chicago/Minnesota leads the North. Packers take one of the two Wild Card spots.

   1. Vikings win:

      The Bears take the final Wild Card spot if Seattle loses or Tampa Bay wins otherwise it goes to Seattle. (The Buccaneers negate the Seahawks tiebreaker advantage head-to-head versus the Packers. Chicago and Green Bay both have the tiebreaker advantage on Tampa Bay or the Seattle/Tampa Bay combo.)

   2. Bears win:

      The Seahawks gets the final spot if they win. If not, the spot goes to the Buccaneers if they win. If they both falter, the Cowboys move in with a win. The last shot goes to the Saints. If all four of those teams lose, Seattle gets the spot by default.

2. Packers win:

   Green Bay continues to lead the North. Dallas takes over in the East with a win.

   1. Bears win:

      Chicago continues to hold onto the #5 seed. The final spots goes to Seattle if they win, otherwise, Tampa Bay takes it with a win. The spot then drops to New York if Dallas won. If Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Dallas all lose, the spot goes to the Saints with a win otherwise the Seahawks retain it.

   2. Vikings win:

      The Seahawks and Buccaneers get spots if they win. If either loses, Minnesota picks up a Wild Card position. If both Seattle and Tampa Bay lose, Chicago gets the final spot.

With all of the potential activity on the NFC side, it's not surprising that the games with the biggest impact on the playoff picture are the six games that will decide the NFC playoff picture:

1. Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
2. Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
3. Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
4. Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
6. San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

My Where's George Week in Review: 11/11/12 - 11/17/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 38 hits in 8 States [AZ, CA²⁸, CO, ID, IL, NV⁴, NY, TX]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 478 counties with 1 new this week: Kankakee IL.

Of those 38 hits, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (35) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 1 Day 8 Hours 16 Minutes after I originally entered it good for fifth on my longest all-time active list..

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
5	7	3	5	5	10	3

Friday's 10 hits made it my first double digit hit day since July 27th, and my eighth of the year. The seven additional days of hits extended my current hit streak to 42. Thanksgiving and Black Friday are tough days for hits, so I won't be surprised if the streak fails to make it through the week.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was an exceptionally good week for hits:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22264	22351	87	5631	21720	95.6	21119	-9	+1232
Bills with Hits	2430	3531	3566	35	1136	3445	19.4	3323	+16	+243
Total Hits	2799	4115	4153	38	1354	4030	23.5	3882	+14	+271

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.52% [+1.23%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19483	19562	79	5135	18959	78.9	19531	+0	+31
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6401 entries this year rather than 5000						20182	78.2	19490	+1	+72

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, series 2009 now has over a 900 bill lead and is closing in on leading by 1000:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3871	3874	3	271		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	39	2551	+18	+620
2009	1339	4721	4781	60	3442		Actual	57	3171

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all were either even or moved in the wrong direction, but once again, those movements weren't large enough to be concerning. San Francisco will likely move back above 48% by end of year but shouldn't approach 49%:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10649	47.83%	10701	47.88%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11138	+437
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	762	3.42%	764	3.42%	> 2.8%	2.85%	640	+124
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	786	3.53%	789	3.53%	> 2.4%	2.45%	550	+239
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	720	3.23%	722	3.23%	> 2.3%	2.35%	527	+195
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	641	2.88%	644	2.88%	> 2.2%	2.25%	503	+141
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	598	2.69%	598	2.68%	> 2.1%	2.15%	482	+116
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	552	2.48%	552	2.47%	> 1.7%	1.75%	392	+160

This week was my best week for hits in quite a while. Will be interesting to see if the momentum continues, but I certainly enjoyed the increased activity this week.

NFL Playoff Picture: One Game's Impact

One of the best things about the NFL is that the vast majority of games have an impact on the playoffs due to how few games are played each season. So even a game between the 4-5 Miami Dolphins and the 3-6 Buffalo Bills (a.k.a. this past Thursday Night Football game) could effect who makes the post-season.

Obviously the game has no impact on the current picture as neither team is currently in it. However, Miami had an outside chance of moving into the playoff picture after the Week 12 games, but with their loss, that chance has evaporated. But the bigger effect is felt in the end of year chances.

Prior to the game, if the Dolphins won out, they'd win the AFC East. Now if they win out, they'll capture the division crown in 96% of the possible outcomes of the season. And there is a possibility (although slight), that Miami could win out and miss the playoffs completely.

Buffalo's post-season chances if they win out haven't changed (since this game went "as planned" while no other games have been played that would affect them). However, a couple of other teams benefited from the Bills win: the Jets and the Browns (!). The Jets saw their percentage of divisional championships rise by 3% (to 65%) if they win out. The Browns will now make the playoffs in an additional 2% of their possible outcomes (67%) if they win out. I'm not completely sure why Buffalo's win helped out Cleveland: my guess is that it's easier to the Browns to jump past both teams at 4-6 then to get by Miami at 5-5. No other team saw it's chances change by at least 1%.

Looking at all of the simulations, Miami's divisional and playoff chances dropped 5.8% and 9.1% respectively to 12.7% and 15.7%. Divisionally, the Patriots picked up the majority of what the Dolphins lost (3.3%) and now win the East 76.0% of the time. Buffalo picked up 1.5% to increase to 4.8% and New York picked up the remaining 1.0% to increase to 6.4%. As for just making the playoffs, Buffalo picks up 4.0% of what Miami lost (12.6%), the Patriots picked up 1.8% (81.7% - note that the 1.8% is less than the 3.3% they picked up towards winning the conference, so some of New England's additionally division wins were conversions from being a playoff team), and the Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Titans, Broncos, and Chargers all picked up a fraction of a percent.

Another good way to look at how one game affects the rest of the season is to look back at the season opener. Before the season starts, every team has a 25.0% chance (based on random game outcomes) to win their division and a 37.5% chance to make the playoffs. By losing that game to the Cowboys, the Giants divisional change dropped by a third to 16.7% and playoff chances dropped 10% to 27.5%. The Cowboys picked up the majority from both of those numbers although the Eagles and Redskins were also slight beneficiaries.

NFL Playoff Picture: Another Further Nerdy Look Ahead

This is a follow on to last week's "further look ahead". Once again I'll be looking two weeks ahead at which teams could be part of the playoff picture. This will be the last time I'll be able to completely do this for this season since bye weeks are done after week 11 and it takes 8 days to simulate all of the possibilities for 32 games (it took 2 days to simulate all of the possibilities for the 30 games across weeks 11 & 12). I could still produce the numbers if I eliminate games that "don't matter", but sometimes a game that doesn't matter affects other team's tiebreakers. I have a couple alternative ways to look ahead that I'll introduce below. But first, a look a the possibilities for the playoff picture at the end of week 12.

Starting off with the AFC, the Patriots will be leading the East regardless of what happens over the next two weeks. In the North, the winner of the Sunday Night Football game between the Ravens and the Steelers will have the lead unless Pittsburgh loses in week 12 while Baltimore wins. In that case, the Ravens would reclaim the top spot. As for the South, the Texans will keep the lead unless they lose both of their games and the Colts win both of theirs. Same thing out West with the Broncos keeping the lead unless they lose two while the Chargers win two although San Diego can help their cause in their week 11 matchup with Denver.

The Wild Card pictures is a bit less clear. Houston and Baltimore would both drop into a wild card spot if they lose their divisional lead. Otherwise, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh will mostly likely have the two spots unless they lose twice in which case a spot could go to Miami or Denver/San Diego (whoever is not leading the West).

In the NFC, the Giants will be leading the East unless they lose two and the Cowboys win two in which case Dallas takes over. The North has the only three-way race for the divisional lead at the end of week 12: The Bears are most likely to be the leader, but they will lose the lead if they lose both of their next two games or if they lose one game and the Packers win both. Green Bay takes over if they win two and the Bears lose one. The Vikings take over if the Bears lose both (the second would be to Minnesota) and the Packers don't win both. The Falcons will be leading the South regardless after the next two weeks. Out West, the 49ers will maintain the lead unless they lose both games while the Seahawks win their two.

As for the Wild Card, none of the potential division leaders are guaranteed a wild card spot if they fail to be division leader. Chicago has the best chance if be a wild card if they falter, followed by Green Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco. As for the teams not currently in the picture that could move in, the most likely is Minnesota followed by the Buccaneers. New York trails those teams if they lose the lead in the East. The NFC Wild Card long shots for week 12 are New Orleans and Dallas followed by Detroit and Arizona as the extreme long shots.

---

Not satisfied with the thought that I wouldn't be able to provide the above outlook after this week, I started brainstorming alternative ways to generate a further look ahead. My favorite idea was running a series of simulations that had one team set to win the rest of their games while another team was set to lose the rest and all other games were randomly decided. This would tell me which teams were guaranteed to win their division and/or make the playoffs if they won the rest of their games. Any team not at 100% no longer had control over whether or not they made the playoffs, and a team at 0% was most likely eliminated (there is some margin of error in my percentages, but I couldn't tell you what it was).

Based on those simulations, there are 13 teams that are guaranteed to win their division if they win out: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. There are an additional 6 guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out: Dallas (98% division winner), Seattle (98%), Tampa Bay (96%), San Diego (93%), Arizona (87%), Detroit (70%), and New Orleans (64%). Three teams round up to 100% making the playoffs by winning out: St. Louis (99.97% playoffs; 85% division winner), Washington (99.94%; 96%), and Cincinnati (99.71%; 53%). The next five teams are most likely in if they win out: Philadelphia (99%; 96%), Tennessee (99%; 22%), Oakland (98%; 69%), New York Jets (98%; 62%), and Buffalo (97%; 48%). Cleveland follows that crew and is in trouble only making the playoffs in 65% of the simulations where they win out and winning the division in just 5%. And at the bottom, the teams that are pretty much out of it are Kansas City (26%; 19%), Carolina (22%; 7%), and Jacksonville (21%; 0.01%).

Using the data from all of the above simulations, we can see a ranking by team of who is most likely to win their division and/or make the playoffs (keep in mind that each team auto-wins out in 3.1% of the simulations and likewise, auto-loses out in 3.1%):

		Division	Playoffs
AFC South	Houston Texans	74.8%	96.1%
NFC South	Atlanta Falcons	80.4%	90.4%
AFC North	Baltimore Ravens	65.4%	89.2%
AFC East	New England Patriots	72.7%	79.9%
AFC West	Denver Broncos	73.3%	79.6%
NFC North	Chicago Bears	44.6%	76.9%
NFC West	San Francisco 49ers	58.5%	74.5%
AFC South	Indianapolis Colts	23.9%	71.2%
AFC North	Pittsburgh Steelers	31.4%	64.9%
NFC East	New York Giants	53.9%	63.6%
NFC North	Green Bay Packers	28.2%	60.0%
NFC West	Seattle Seahawks	26.5%	49.4%
NFC North	Minnesota Vikings	23.3%	46.1%
AFC West	San Diego Chargers	19.7%	32.1%
NFC South	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14.2%	30.4%
NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	23.3%	26.6%
AFC East	Miami Dolphins	18.5%	24.7%
NFC South	New Orleans Saints	5.1%	17.2%
NFC West	Arizona Cardinals	8.9%	15.4%
AFC North	Cincinnati Bengals	3.0%	14.5%
NFC North	Detroit Lions	3.8%	13.8%
AFC South	Tennessee Titans	1.3%	13.3%
NFC East	Philadelphia Eagles	12.0%	12.4%
NFC East	Washington Redskins	10.8%	12.1%
AFC East	New York Jets	5.4%	10.6%
AFC West	Oakland Raiders	6.2%	10.3%
NFC West	St. Louis Rams	6.1%	10.2%
AFC East	Buffalo Bills	3.3%	8.6%
AFC North	Cleveland Browns	0.2%	3.0%
AFC West	Kansas City Chiefs	0.8%	1.1%
NFC South	Carolina Panthers	0.3%	0.9%
AFC South	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.0%	0.8%

I'm not sure that this table really tells us anything useful, but it could be interesting to see how these number change week-to-week. I find the how often a team makes the playoff when they win out to be much more interesting. Might be good to add how often a team makes the playoffs when they lose out to add the "playoff lock" side of the story.