Another week of the NFL season is done, and a couple more teams have fallen out of the undefeated category. None of the teams that were winless coming into the week got a win in Week 5 (this is a bit unfair to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay: both had their bye week), so there is now one more winless team than there are undefeated teams. Of the undefeated teams, I'd say that New Orleans has the best chance of ending the year 16-0 as Denver and Kansas City will end up playing each other twice. As for the defeated teams, Jacksonville is my (and the popular) pick to end the year 0-16.
The Saints have the roughest game this weekend for the undefeateds: they travel to New England to take on the Patriots. The Chiefs host the Raiders and the Broncos host the amenic Jaguars. Thus Jacksonville likely has the toughest game of the winless teams. The Giant have the next hardest having to travel to Chicago followed by the Steelers heading to New York to take on the Jets. Tampa Bay may have the best chance of winning as they host the Eagles, but Philadelphia is tied at the top of the struggling NFC East and should be very motivated to get the win.
Moving beyond the undefeated and defeated teams, here's my weekly look at the current divisional standings and the current playoff picture. As always, these summaries count any unplayed games as 0-0 ties.
Starting off with the AFC East, New England is still tops in the division even though they lost and has a one game lead over Miami and New York. The Jets currently have the tie-breaking edge over the Dolphins due to record in common games and thus are second. The Bills, at 2-3, are at the bottom of the division.
Moving onto the North, there's still a three way tie between Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland as all three were winners in Week 5. The tiebreaker falls the same way as last week. Since the Ravens have beaten the Browns and the Browns have beaten the Bengals, Baltimore is first, Cleveland is second, and Cincinnati is third. At 0-4, Pittsburgh is 2.5 games behind and last in the division.
Down South, we encounter the only division that can be completely ranked by record. The 4-1 Colts lead the 3-2 Titans who are ahead of the 2-3 Texans followed by the 0-5 Jaguars.
As for the West, Denver and Kansas City are tied at the top at 5-0. The Broncos have played a divisional game while the Chiefs have not, so Denver currently has the tiebreaker lead by virtue of having a better record in the division. (Note that Kansas City plays Oakland this weekend, and if they win, they'll tie Denver on this tiebreaker and take the lead in record in common games thus leap frog the Broncos for the divisional lead). The Raiders and Chargers are tied three games back at 2-3. Since they just played this weekend, Oakland has the edge via the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Ranking the AFC divisional leaders only requires one tiebreaker. The Broncos are currently the #1 seed by virtue of having the best record. The Colts and Patriots are tied at 4-1. Indianapolis currently has the lead in strength of victory (12-13 versus 9-15) and thus currently is the #2 seed. New England then is the #3, and Balitmore is #4 at 3-2.
As for the wild cards, the Chiefs are the first wild card (the #5 seed) with a two game lead over the next closest teams. There is a three way tie for the next wild card position between New York, Cleveland, and Tennessee. The Titans have the best conference record of the three and thus are the #6 seed. Here's the current AFC playoff picture (note that these are the same teams as last week and the only change is New England dropping from #1 to #3 and Denver and Indianapolis moving up accordingly):
Switching over to the NFC, the East is having a rough go at it this season, and the division lead is tied between Dallas and Philadelphia both who are 2-3. The Eagles have the better divisional record (2-0 versus 1-0) and currently are a top the division. The Redskins are third at 1-3, and the division cellar is owned by the 0-5 Giants.
Up North, Chicago and Detroit are tied for the lead at 3-2. The Lions beat the Bears in week 4 so they have the tiebreaking edge. The 2-2 Packers are next in third followed by the 1-3 Vikings.
In the South, New Orleans at 5-0 has a three and a half game lead over Carolina. In third is Atlanta at 1-4. Tampa Bay is at the bottom of the division at 0-4.
Out West, the Seahawks are still leading the way even with their loss this past week. The Cardinals and 49ers are tied at one game back. San Francisco has the lead in regards to divisional record (1-1 versus 0-1) and thus are currently second. These two play this coming week, so the tie will be broken (unless the game ends in an unfortunate tie). The Rams are just a game back from those two in fourth.
The NFC divisional leaders can be completely ranked by record. New Orleans at 5-0 is the #1 seed followed by Seattle (4-1) at #2 ahead of Detroit (3-2) as the #3 leading Philadelphia (2-3).
As for the wild cards, the Bears and 49ers are tied for the first wild card. The Niners have the better conference record (2-1 versus 1-2) and thus are the #5 seed. Arizona enters the picture for the second wild card, and they also trump the Bears for the spot via conference record (3-2 versus 1-2). And so the Cardinals are currently the #6 seed giving the NFC West both of the wild card spots. The NFC playoff picture current looks like this:
Looking ahead to next week's picture, four teams are guaranteed to still be leading their divisions regardless of outcome next week: New England (AFC East), Indianapolis (AFC South), New Orleans (NFC South), and Seattle (NFC West). Additionally the Broncos and Chiefs are guaranteed to be in the picture: one as the AFC West division leader and the other as the first wild card. Which one ends up where comes down to Kansas City's game: if KC wins they are the divisional leader otherwise Denver will keep the lead.
The remaining divisions have three team scenarios. The AFC North's is the same as last week. Baltimore keeps the lead if they win. If the Ravens lose, the Browns take the top spot with a win. If both Baltimore and Cleveland lose, Cincinnati can take the lead with a win. Otherwise the Ravens will keep the position. Similar story with the NFC North. The Lions remain on top if they win. Chicago takes over with a win and a Detroit loss. The Packers can move into the top position with a win and losses by both the Bears and Lions. Otherwise, Detroit keeps the top spot. The scenario for the NFC East is a bit different. The Cowboys retake the divisional lead if they beat the Redskins. If not, the Eagles remain on top with a win. Otherwise Washington moves into the lead.
As for the final AFC wild card position, five teams have a chance to have it after next week: Miami, New York, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Of those, the Titans have the best shot. Tennessee gets the spot with a win and either a loss by Cincinnati or Baltimore and Cleveland both winning or losing (the Titans will be behind the Bengals in wild card tiebreakers but ahead of everyone else so they need Cincinnati to either be leading the North or in third). The Bengals have the next best chance of taking the spot. They get it with a win and a loss by either the Ravens or Browns (if both lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals will be leading the division). New York has the third best chance to be the wild card, and here's where things get a bit tricky. The Jets get the wild card spot with a win and a loss by the Titans and either a loss by the Bengals, a loss by both the Ravens and Browns, or wins by all of the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns (in short, New York is behind Tennessee and Cincinnati for the tiebreaker but ahead of the Browns). Miami, who's on a bye in week 5, has the fourth best shot at the wild card. All they need to take the spot is losses by Tennessee and New York and no more than one win among Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Finally the Browns could get the final wild card spot if they win, the Titans and Jets both lose, and the Ravens win.
On the NFC side, the #5 seed will be held by the winner of Arizona at San Francisco. The final spot could belong to any one of the Eagles, Bears, Lions, Packers, Cardinals, 49ers, or Rams. The two most likely scenarios for the final spot are Chicago taking the spot with Chicago and Detroit both winning (thus the Lions would hold onto the division lead and the Bears would have the best remaining record at 4-2) or Green Bay taking the final spot with a win and either a Bears win and a Lions loss or a Bears loss and a Lions win (if both lose, the Packers take the divisional lead). The Eagles can take the wild card spot if they win and Dallas wins (otherwise they take the lead in the East) and only one (or none) of Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay win. Detroit takes the spot if they lose but either the Bears or Packers win but not both and at most only one of Philly or Dallas wins. Arizona can maintain a wild card spot even with a loss if St. Louis also loses, either Philadelphia or Dallas loses, and no more than one of Chicago, Detroit, or Green Bay win. The Niners maintain a wild card in similar scenarios as Arizona although the Rams result no longer matters. And if none of those scenarios happen (including a Rams win), the wild card spot will come down to Chicago, Detroit, and St. Louis with the spot being determined by strength of victory.
