My Where's George Week in Review: 12/09/12 - 12/15/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 26 hits in 5 States [AZ², CA²⁰, NC, NV², WA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with none new this week.

Of those 26 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (18) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 279 Days 12 Hours 41 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
09	10	11	12	13	14	15
4	4	4	5	4	2	3

For the tenth week in a row, I received a hit every day of the week extending my hit streak to 70 days. I'm now 11 days away from tying my longest all-time hit streak, but it's going to be tough as we're in the final days of the Christmas shopping season (although bills will change hands often, lots of people will be too busy to enter the bills on Where's George) as well as needing hits through the holiday itself. I have not made it through the later half of December without getting at least one hit-less day since I started Georging. Hopefully this year will be the year!

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was an on target week for hits and slightly above target for entries. I'm now a bill shy of having entered 6000 bills in 2012:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22612	22719	107	5999	21720	95.6	21501	+11	+1218
Bills with Hits	2430	3637	3655	18	1225	3445	19.4	3401	-1	+254
Total Hits	2799	4244	4270	26	1471	4030	23.5	3976	+2	+294

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.60% [+1.31%]. It was a bit of a rough week for ones, but it'll be a while before I need to enter a lot of non-ones:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19812	19901	89	5474	18959	97	19864	-8	+37
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6274 entries this year rather than 5000						20071	96.3	19824	-7	+77

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this goal has long been completed. My recent entries have contained more 2006s/2003As than usual. I'm just 18 bills away from entering my 5000th 2009.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3886	3893	7	290		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	48	2718	-6	+635
2009	1339	4933	4982	49	3643		Actual	42	3353

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all held steady or improved except for Philadelphia and Kansas City:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10824	47.87%	10870	47.85%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11308	+438
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	772	3.41%	774	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	652	+122
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	803	3.55%	806	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	561	+245
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	729	3.22%	734	3.23%	> 2.3%	2.35%	537	+197
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	648	2.87%	649	2.86%	> 2.2%	2.25%	512	+137
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	600	2.65%	602	2.65%	> 2.1%	2.15%	490	+112
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	557	2.46%	557	2.45%	> 1.7%	1.75%	399	+158

It was definitely a quieter week in regards to hits than last, but December is currently on pace to finish near November (130) in total hits.

NFL Playoff Possibilties: Week Fourteen

With just three weeks to go in the NFL season, one more team locked up a playoff birth (Baltimore - although NFL.com doesn't agree; more on them later) and four more have been eliminated from contention (Tennessee, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Arizona). As with last week, we'll look at this data division by division.

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New York Jets	42%	0%	0%	0%	6.9%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%
Buffalo Bills	15%	0%	0%	0%	2.3%	0.0%	-2.1%	0.0%
Miami Dolphins	7%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%	0.0%	-3.3%	0.0%

The Patriots locked up their playoff spot last week and improved their shot at the #1 seed by knocking off the Texans. Losses by both the Steelers and Bengals have helped keep the 6-7 Jets in the playoff hunt. The Jets are currently behind on tiebreakers though, so even if they can pull even, they wouldn't move into a playoff spot at this point (the Jets lost to the Steelers this season, and the Steelers are ahead of the Bengals also by the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Bills and Dolphins are pretty much out of it, but if the planets align, one of the two could make it (neither could overtake the Colts, so at best, one of the two could be the #6).

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	100%	49%	100.0%	92.0%	0.7%	5.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	26%	0%	0%	38.6%	4.3%	-6.7%	-2.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	14%	0%	0%	47.9%	3.7%	-4.6%	-2.2%
Cleveland Browns	23%	0%	0%	0%	3.3%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%

According to my program, Baltimore has now locked up a playoff position because there are only three teams in the AFC that can catch them record-wise (other than the other three division leaders and Indianapolis): Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and New York. The Steelers and Bengals face off in Week 16. If we play out the season with Baltimore losing out, New York and Cincinnati winning out, and Pittsburgh winning out other than the game against Cincinnati, the Bengals will win the North, and the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Pittsburgh in the North based on having a better divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) and be ahead of New York in the AFC seeding based on having a better conference record: 8-4 vs 7-5. So in that scenario, the Ravens will be the #6 seed. If we flip the Steelers/Bengals game in favor of Pittsburgh, the Steelers then win the North, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Cincinnati based on divisional record (4-2 vs 2-4) and still be ahead of New York based on conference record thus still getting the #6 seed. So in the two worst case scenarios for the Ravens, they still end up as a wild card.

Most likely either the Bengals or Steelers will make the playoffs though loses by both this past weekend impacted their chances of winning the division and getting the wild card spot. The Browns are still alive (same story as the Bills and Dolphins: only for the #6 seed) but barely.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	0%	100.0%	77.4%	0.0%	-11.2%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	100%	90%	0%	98.4%	22.6%	11.3%	11.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee Titans	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.0%

The Texans locked up their playoff spot last week but weakened their hold on the division (and chances for the #1 seed) by losing to the Patriots. Two of their final three games are against the Colts, so they have the opportunity to close things out themselves. Indianapolis is pretty close to locking up a playoff spot and will likely do so with one more win.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego Chargers	11%	0%	0%	0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Broncos wrapped up the division last week. The Chargers are in the same position as the Bills, Dolphins, and Browns: they can only get to be the #6 seed, and it's going to take a lot of dominoes falling into place. Of those four teams, San Diego is third likely (the Browns have the best long-shot chance followed by the Bills).

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New York Giants	100%	100%	1%	0%	71.6%	45.8%	8.2%	1.7%
Dallas Cowboys	98%	87%	0%	0%	33.5%	27.2%	0.7%	-0.8%
Washington Redskins	<100%	87%	0%	0%	40.3%	27.0%	3.7%	-0.8%
Philadelphia Eagles	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The NFC East now has the hottest playoff race in the NFL, and it's starting to look like we may see two of it's teams make the playoffs. All four of the East's teams won this past weekend, but even with their win, the Eagles are now out of the running for a playoff spot. The Week 17 matchup between the 'Skins and the 'Boys is likely on that will impact how things turn out.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	26%	7%	88.0%	76.7%	5.0%	20.5%
Chicago Bears	100%	74%	>0%	0%	54.8%	16.2%	-23.5%	-20.6%
Minnesota Vikings	96%	37%	0%	0%	23.7%	7.2%	4.7%	0.2%
Detroit Lions	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%

With Chicago losing this past weekend, Green Bay now has a dominating position in the North. The two face off this weekend, and a Packers win will give them the division while likely knocking the Bears off of their wild card spot and forcing them to fight their way back into the picture. The Vikings are still in the picture, but it doesn't seem like they're in good position in regards to tie-breakers against the other wild card candidates.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17%	0%	0%	0%	2.5%	0.0%	-13.2%	0.0%
New Orleans Saints	>0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%	0.0%	-5.6%	0.0%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Atlanta secured this division last week, and although they had a rough loss on Sunday to Carolina, will likely still be the NFC #1 seed. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both crippled their playoff hopes with losses, but with some help, they could still be wild cards.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	89%	18%	98.3%	80.7%	6.0%	3.9%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	75%	2%	0%	72.5%	18.3%	13.4%	-2.3%
St. Louis Rams	87%	7%	0%	0%	14.7%	1.0%	1.3%	-1.5%
Arizona Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.0%

The Niners and Seahawks both improved their playoff chances with victories over the weekend. San Francisco is close to locking up a playoff spot, although their next two games are going to be tough (at New England and at Seattle). If the 49ers don't win either of those games, Seattle is in good shape to take the division (since they'll have the victory over San Francisco and their other games are against the Bills and Rams).

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Fourteen

Week 14 is in the books, and there are now just three games left for teams to jockey for position. No new teams have clinched playoff positions this week, so five of the divisions are still up for grabs as are eight playoff spots. Seven of the eight division leaders are locked in as such through next week with only the NFC East up for grabs. And once again, while a couple teams shuffled positions, no teams left or entered the picture this week.

Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots and Broncos locked up the East and West respectively last week and are now just trying to improve their playoff seeds. In the North, the Texans lead is down to 2 games over the Colts. Two of their three remaining games is against Indianapolis, and if they can win one of them, Houston will lock up the division. As for the South, the Ravens maintained their two game lead over the Steelers and Bengals since all three lost.

As for the Wild Card, the Colts have a two game lead for the #5 seed over the Steelers and Bengals. Pittsburgh has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cinncinati (although the two will face off again in week 16) and thus has the #6 seed for now.

Houston lead in the race for the top seed is down to just a game. New England and Denver are tied for second, since they won their match-up, the Patriots are the #2 seed. Baltimore is a game back from those two in fourth. The current AFC playoff picture is:

On the NFC side, the Giants maintained their lead in the East by defeating the Saints, but both the Redskins and Cowboys won to stay just a game back. The Packers now have the lead in the North by a game (rather than by tiebreakers) since the Bears lost. The Falcons wrapped up the South last week. The 49ers maintained their 1.5 game lead over the Seahawks in the West.

Chicago and Seattle are tied for the NFC Wild Card spots, but the Seahawks have the head-to-head victory and thus get the #5 while the Bears have the #6.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record: Atlanta's at top with a 1.5 game lead over San Francisco (#2) who have a half game lead over Green Bay (#3) who leads New York (#4) by a game. The current NFC playoff picture is:

As mentioned early, all of the divisional leaders are guaranteed to still be in the lead next week except for the Giants. New York keeps the lead in the East if they win or if the Redskins and Cowboys both lose. If neither of those scenarios happen, Washington takes over the lead with a win. Dallas takes the lead with a win and a New York and Washington loss.

The Colts will still be the AFC #5 regardless of outcome next week. The #6 will switch hands to the Bengels if they win while the Steelers lose otherwise Pittsburgh keeps the spot.

The NFC Wild Card situation is much more complex. There are five teams that could be a NFC Wild Card team after week 15 (one of which is New York who'd much prefer to remain division leader). Here are the possibilities starting with most likely to least:

• Seattle retains a wild card spot unless they lose, the Bears win, the Giants lose, and only one of the Redskins and Cowboys win.
• Chicago retains a wild card spot with a win or with a loss and either:
  1. Washington and Dallas both lose
  2. a Cowboys win and a win by either the Redskins or Giants but not both
• New York falls into a wild card spot with a loss, a win by either Washington or Dallas but not both, and a loss by Chicago or Seattle.
• Washington moves into a wild card spot if they win, the Giants win, and the Bears lose. [If the Giants lose in this scenario, the Redskins would take over the division lead.]
• Minnesota moves into a wild card spot if they win, Chicago loses, and either:
  1. the Giants win
  2. New York loses while Washington and Dallas both win
  3. the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all lose

My Where's George Week in Review: 12/02/12 - 12/08/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 37 hits in 6 States [CA²⁹, HI², NV³, NY, OR, VA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with none new this week.

Of those 37 hits, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (30) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 1 Year 270 Days 1 Hour 34 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
02	03	04	05	06	07	08
8	5	6	4	3	7	4

With another 7 days of hits, my current hit streak is at 63 days which is good for my third best hit streak all time. Second best is 79 days, so this steak has quite a ways to go to move up.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a great week for hits although my entries were a tad light:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22527	22612	85	5892	21720	95.6	21406	-11	+1206
Bills with Hits	2430	3607	3637	30	1207	3445	19.4	3381	+11	+256
Total Hits	2799	4207	4244	37	1445	4030	23.5	3953	+13	+291

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.62% [+1.33%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19732	19812	80	5385	18959	77	19768	+3	+44
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6288 entries this year rather than 5000						20083	76.5	19727	+4	+85

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this goal has long been completed, and 2009 continues to race ahead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3883	3886	3	283		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	39	2669	+11	+642
2009	1339	4880	4933	53	3594		Actual	50	3311

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", four of the seven held steady or improved. The three that regressed didn't by much:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10792	47.91%	10824	47.87%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11259	+435
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	769	3.41%	772	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	648	+124
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	799	3.55%	803	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	558	+245
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	729	3.24%	729	3.22%	> 2.3%	2.35%	534	+195
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	648	2.88%	648	2.87%	> 2.2%	2.25%	509	+139
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	600	2.66%	600	2.65%	> 2.1%	2.15%	488	+112
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	554	2.46%	557	2.46%	> 1.7%	1.75%	397	+160

It was quite a good week for hits although there wasn't as much State diversity as usual. I hope the hits per day rate can stay at this level throughout December.

NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week Thirteen

Another week of the season is in the books, and the first few teams have clinched playoff spots as well as their respective divisions. A few more teams have joined the Chiefs in the eliminated from contention status. I've reformatted this data to be broken out by division. Keep in mind that these numbers are calculated by looping through all of the teams and setting one team to win out, one to lose out, and the rest of the games are determined randomly.

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	5.1%	12.5%
Buffalo Bills	36%	0%	0%	0%	4.3%	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Miami Dolphins	41%	0%	0%	0%	4.3%	0.0%	-16.1%	-11.9%
New York Jets	40%	0%	0%	0%	4.4%	0.0%	-1.0%	-0.2%

The Patriots clinched the division with their victory over the Dolphins this past weekend. The rest of the division is still alive albeit barely. It's pretty much going to take winning out for any of the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets to make it, and even that may not be enough.

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	93%	21%	99.3%	86.9%	-0.4%	-6.3%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	49%	0%	0%	45.3%	7.2%	9.0%	4.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	32%	0%	0%	52.6%	5.9%	12.5%	2.2%
Cleveland Browns	8%	0%	0%	0%	0.8%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.0%

The Ravens loss to the Steelers this past weekend hurt them a bit, but they're still close to locking up a playoff spot and are still far in the lead for winning the division. The Bengals and Steelers are lurking, and both are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out (they still have a head-to-head game, so both can't win out). The Browns are probably done, but could still make it in by winning out and getting a miracle.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	26%	100.0%	88.6%	0.0%	1.4%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	75%	11%	0%	87.1%	11.4%	7.6%	-1.4%
Tennessee Titans	9%	0%	0%	0%	0.9%	0.0%	-6.2%	0.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Houston locked up a playoff position but still has to do more to win the division. The Colts are working their way into locking up a playoff position. The Jaguars have joined the eliminated teams, and the Titans win probably join that crew soon.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.2%	0.3%
San Diego Chargers	11%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%	0.0%	-8.7%	-0.3%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.1%	0.0%

The Broncos have locked up the West while Oakland has joined Kansas City in the "land of the lost". The Chargers are still slightly relevant but perhaps for not much longer.

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New York Giants	100%	100%	0%	0%	63.4%	44.1%	-15.1%	-23.0%
Washington Redskins	100%	93%	0%	0%	36.6%	27.8%	13.1%	10.5%
Dallas Cowboys	99%	93%	0%	0%	32.8%	28.0%	14.2%	14.3%
Philadelphia Eagles	>0%	>0%	0%	0%	>0.0%	>0.0%	-1.8%	-1.8%

All of the NFC East teams are still alive and could win the division, but it's highly unlikely that the Eagles will do either. The other three are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out. I'd be surprised if more than one of the NFC East teams makes the playoffs.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	2%	0%	83.0%	56.2%	16.3%	22.3%
Chicago Bears	100%	100%	>0%	0%	78.3%	36.8%	-5.6%	-14.7%
Minnesota Vikings	99%	58%	0%	0%	19.0%	7.0%	-15.3%	-7.6%
Detroit Lions	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%	0.0%	-2.2%	0.0%

All of the NFC North teams are also alive, although the Lions can't win the division and are a playoff long shot (although not as long as the Eagles). The second place win will likely capture a wild card spot.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.3%	3.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	91%	0%	0%	0%	15.7%	0.0%	-13.6%	-3.3%
New Orleans Saints	60%	0%	0%	0%	5.7%	0.0%	-9.2%	-0.6%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The South has the NFC's only guaranteed and eliminated teams. The Falcons have wrapped up the division and are working towards guaranteeing home field advantage through the playoffs. The Panthers are out of it. The Bucs and Saints hurt their chances with losses in week 13 but are still viable wild card possibilities.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	26%	7%	92.3%	76.8%	-2.5%	-10.5%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	87%	>0%	0%	59.1%	20.6%	18.9%	10.6%
St. Louis Rams	95%	24%	0%	0%	13.4%	2.6%	5.0%	0.3%
Arizona Cardinals	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%	0.0%	-2.5%	-0.5%

The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks could all still win this division. The Niners took a slight step back with their loss to St. Louis this weekend, but they are still by far the favorite. Seattle continues to improve their hold on a wild card spot.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Thirteen

For the first time since week 9, the AFC playoff picture has changed (although only slightly). The NFC picture was pretty calm also. With four weeks to go, moving into a playoff position is getting more urgent.

Starting things off with the AFC East, the Patriots traveled to Miami and defeated the Dolphins to clinch the division. In the North, the Steelers were able to hold off the Ravens even though they were starting their third string quarterback to knock one game out of Baltimore's lead. The Ravens now lead the North by two games. In the South, the Texans and Colts both won, and so Houston's lead is stuck at three. And out west, the Broncos won while the Chargers fell, and that clinched the division for Denver.

In the Wild Card, the aforementioned Colts rallied from 12 down with less than 2 minutes to defeat the Lions and retain the #5 seed. The Steelers also held onto the #6 seed with their victory over the Ravens. The Bengals defeated the Chargers to remain even record-wise with Pittsburgh but are still behind on the tiebreaker.

Houston still leads the race for the AFC #1 seed by two games. The Patriots, Ravens, and Broncos are all tied at 8-3. New England has the best conference record of the three and is currently the #2. Baltimore has a better conference record than Denver, and so the Ravens are the #3 while the Broncos are the #4. Interestingly, the Ravens have the most control getting the #2 seed since they have a head-to-head victory over the Patriots and a week 15 game against the Broncos. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

On the NFC side, the Giants lost to the Redskins on Monday Night Football and saw their divisional lead fall to just one game in the East. In the North, the Bears faltered while the Packers prevailed moving Green Bay back into the divisional lead by having the head-to-head victory (these two will face off again in week 15). Down South, the Falcons defeated the division rival Saints while the Buccaneers lost to the Broncos. These combined locked up the division for Atlanta. In the West, the 49ers lost to the Rams while the Seahawks won, and so San Francisco's lead is down to 1.5 games.

As for the NFC Wild Cards, Chicago fell into the #5 seed with their drop from the divisional lead. Seattle retained the #6 seed with their win and improved their odds of moving up. Four teams are tied at 6-6 and one game back.

The Falcons now have a 1.5 game lead for the top NFC seed. San Francisco is still holding onto the #2, but their lead is down to just a half game. Green Bay is the #3 leading the Giants (#4) by one game. Thus making the NFC playoff picture:

Looking forward to week 14, none of the AFC division leaders can be overtaken. Additionally, Indianapolis will be the #5 regardless of outcome. Thus, the only spot up for grabs is the #6 seed which will stay with the Steelers unless they lose and Cincinnati wins in which case the Bengals take cover. Pittsburgh is hosting San Diego, so things are not looking good for Cincinnati to take over.

The Falcons and 49ers will still be leading their respective divisions after week 14. The Packers will hold onto the lead in the North unless they lose and the Bears win in which case Chicago takes over. In the East, the Giants keep the lead if they win or if both the Redskins and Cowboys lose. If New York loses and both Washington and Dallas win, the Redskins take the lead. Otherwise, if the 'Boys win and the other two lose, Dallas takes the lead.

One of the NFC Wild Card spots will go to the non-North leader between the Packers and Bears. The other goes to Seattle if they win. Otherwise, it goes to the Redskins if Washington and New York both win. Otherwise, it goes to the Giants, if they lose, the Redskins lose, but the Cowboys win. If none of those scenarios comes true, the spot will stay with the Seahawks.

My Where's George Week in Review: 11/25/12 - 12/01/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 32 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA²², FL, NV³, NY, OR², PA] as well as an international hit in Slough, United Kingdom. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with 1 new this week: Martin FL.

Of those 32 hits, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (25) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 361 Days 14 Hours 48 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
25	26	27	28	29	30	01
3	6	8	2	6	6	1

Seven more days with hits extends my current hit streak to 56 days: good for my 4th longest streak all-time.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a good week for all three stats:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22419	22527	108	5807	21720	95.6	21310	+12	+1217
Bills with Hits	2430	3582	3607	25	1177	3445	19.4	3362	+6	+245
Total Hits	2799	4175	4207	32	1408	4030	23.5	3929	+8	+278

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.59% [+1.30%]. Will be hard to not successfully complete this goal at this point.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19627	19732	105	5305	18959	97.9	19690	+7	+42
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6326 entries this year rather than 5000						20116	97.1	19649	+8	+83

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I'm just 3 bills shy of having entered 1000 more 2009s than 2003As:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3878	3883	5	280		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	49	2631	+17	+630
2009	1339	4809	4880	71	3541		Actual	66	3261

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all either held steady or went the wrong way, but still not by enough to be a problem:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10731	47.87%	10792	47.91%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11219	+427
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	767	3.42%	769	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	646	+123
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	795	3.55%	799	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	555	+244
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	727	3.24%	729	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	532	+197
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	646	2.88%	648	2.88%	> 2.2%	2.25%	507	+141
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	598	2.67%	600	2.66%	> 2.1%	2.15%	486	+114
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	554	2.47%	554	2.46%	> 1.7%	1.75%	396	+158

It was a good week for hits and a nice finish to November which ended with 130 hits for my 5th best month for hits all-time.