My UFC on FuelTV 10 Fight Picks

Cannot say that I'm excited for this card. Not familiar with many of the fighters on the undercard. The main card doesn't feature a lot of close match ups. Was surprised to see that I picked more than a couple underdogs. We'll see how that turns out for me. Hopefully I don't give back many of the points I picked up at UFC 160.

Middleweight Match [FUEL10-13]
N/A
Match Points: 4.47
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #52	Anthony Smith (17-9)	+213	9.52	13.99
NR	Antonio Braga Neto (8-1, 1 NC)	-253	1.77	6.24

The night starts off with a couple of UFC newcomers.  I'm not familiar with either, but I do recognize a couple of the opponents that Neto has faced and defeated.  Add to that fact, that he's got the home country advantage, and I'm going with the favorite.

Middleweight Match [FUEL10-12]
N/A
Match Points: 3.12
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #118	Karlos Vemola (9-3)	-135	2.31	5.43
MW #263	Caio Magalhaes (5-1)	+112	3.49	6.61

This matchup is the closest odds-wise.  Both fighters come into this matchup needing a win.  Vemola has more experience plus more UFC experience.  Magalhaes lone octogon appearance was a loss to an underwhelming opponent.  Based on that, I'll stick with the favorite.

Featherweight Match [FUEL10-11]
N/A
Match Points: 5.16
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #65	Mizuto Hirota (14-6-1)	+138	7.12	12.28
FW #110	Rodrigo Damm (10-6)	-162	3.19	8.35

I don't know much about either and neither has done much of note in Strikeforce or the UFC.  This feels like a toss up, so I'll take the underdog and hope that the local judging doesn't give Damm an unfair edge.

Welterweight Match [FUEL10-10]
N/A
Match Points: 5.15
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #56	Ildemar Alcantara (18-5)	-175	2.94	8.09
LW #131	Leandro Silva (11-0-1)	+152	7.83	12.98

I don't quite understand this matchup: Alcantara's only fight in the UFC was at light heavyweight (granted he was a late replacement - and he won).  Silva is listed as being a lightweight.  Looking at pictures of the two, Silva if far too undersized for Alcantara.  Unless the weight cut is too much for Alcantara, I can't see this one going well for the underdog.

Featherweight Match [FUEL10-09]
N/A
Match Points: 5.12
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #83	Felipe Arantes (14-4-1, 2 NC)	-213	2.40	7.52
FW #87	Godofredo Castro (9-1)	+177	9.06	14.18

This matchup feels like a toss up to me.  I'm not really a fan of either, and since I'm not sure which way to go, I'll take the underdog.

Middleweight Match [FUEL10-08]
N/A
Match Points: 9.17
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #24	Ronny Markes (14-1)	-236	3.89	13.06
MW #26	Derek Brunson (10-2)	+194	17.79	26.96

Markes has been the more impressive of the two over the past couple years and should have the advantage with the fight taking place in his home country.

Bantamweight Match [FUEL10-07]
N/A
Match Points: 8.54
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #8	Raphael Assuncao (19-4)	-328	2.60	11.14
BW #67	Vaughan Lee (13-8-1)	+268	22.89	31.43

In my opinion, Assuncao is a bit out of Lee's league and is working his way to the top of the bantamweight division.  I don't see that train didn't derailed in this fight.

Featherweight Match [FUEL10-06]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 6.83
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #78	Rony Mariano Bezerra (12-3)	-344	1.99	8.82
LW #279	Mike Wilkinson (8-0)	+267	18.24	25.07

Wilkenson won his UFC debut but it sure wasn't impressive.  "Jason" has finished 11 of his 12 fights and there's no reason to believe he won't win this one by decision either.  May be time after this fight to give him a stiffer challenge.

Middleweight Match [FUEL10-05]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 5.50
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #189	Daniel Sarafian (7-3)	-447	1.23	6.73
MW #267	Eddie Mendez (7-1-1, 1 NC)	+341	18.76	24.26

Sarafian is the biggest favorite on the card.  He lost his only UFC fight to C.B. Dollaway which makes the previous statement a surprise to me.  I don't know anything about Mendez which is a lot less than what I need to know to pick such a large underdog.  I'll take the favorite by default.

Welterweight Match [FUEL10-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 10.87
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #36	Erick Silva (14-3, 1 NC)	-399	2.72	13.59
WW #43	Jason High (16-3)	+313	34.02	44.89

Silva was on track to be the next big thing at welterweight until derailed by Jon Fitch.  High is on a seven fight win streak but none of those opponents are fighters I recognize.  The UFC is giving Silva another chance against a wrestler, and I think he'll be better prepared this time.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL10-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 11.83
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #21	Rafael Cavalcante (11-3, 1 NC)	-205	5.77	17.60
LHW #37	Thiago Silva (14-3, 2 NC)	+169	19.99	31.82

Both fighters have had wins taken away due to failed drug tests.  Both have only lost to contenders in the past few years.  This seems like a good spot to take the underdog, so I'll go with Silva.

Welterweight Match [FUEL10-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 6.75
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #101	Leonardo Santos (11-3)	-225	3.00	9.75
NR	William Macario (6-0)	+184	12.42	19.17

This fight is the championship of TUF: Brazil Season 2.  I haven't watched any of the season and am not up to speed on the fighters.  Santos is the more experienced fighter and is the favorite, so I'll take him.

Heavyweight Match [FUEL10-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event
Match Points: 15.14
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #5	Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1)	-308	4.92	20.06
HW #10	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1, 1 NC)	+244	36.94	52.08

Big Nog is on the downside of his career while Werdum is still improving.  If Werdum can put together a couple more wins, he may get the next crack at the title at Cain-JSD III.  Nog won their first match up in 2006, but the wear and tear has taken it's toll on him, and Werdum will get the best of him here.