This card lost two of it's three top fights. I'm not thrilled by the new headliner, but there are a couple intriguing fights.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC161-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 6.37 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| BW #31 | Yves Jabouin (18-8) | -329 | 1.94 | 8.31 |
| BW #112 | Dustin Pague (11-7) | +267 | 17.01 | 23.38 |
Based on his last two losses, I'm surprised that Pague is still in the UFC. Jabouin is the more explosion fighter and will overwhelm "The Disciple". Pague will likely be looking for a new home after this loss.
| Lightweight Match [UFC161-10] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 3.72 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #84 | John Maguire (18-5) | -264 | 1.41 | 5.13 |
| LW #259 | Mitch Clarke (9-2) | +219 | 8.15 | 11.87 |
This will be Maguire's lightweight debut in the UFC. Both are trying to prevent a three fight losing streak. Maguire's the more skilled submission artist of the two, and as long as the weight cut doesn't affect him, he should be able to wrap this one up.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC161-09] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 8.81 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| BW #52 | Roland Delorme (8-1, 1 NC) | -209 | 4.22 | 13.03 |
| BW #96 | Edwin Figueroa (9-2) | +178 | 15.68 | 24.49 |
Both loss in their last outing to Francisco Rivera, but Delorme had that loss overturned to a No Contest when Rivera failed his drug test. Figueroa lasted longer between the two. "El Feroz" has the better stand up and has a good opportunity to pull off the upset.
| Welterweight Match [UFC161-08] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 9.04 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #62 | Sean Pierson (13-6) | -150 | 6.03 | 15.07 |
| WW #71 | Kenny Robertson (12-2) | +129 | 11.66 | 20.70 |
Robertson pulled off quite the odd and painful submission in his last UFC fight. Pierson is the tougher looking of the two, but I can't get the memory of Jardine's knee out of my mind. I'll take Kenny for the upset.
| Lightweight Match [UFC161-07] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 9.30 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #50 | Sam Stout (19-8-1) | -221 | 4.21 | 13.51 |
| LW #76 | James Krause (19-4) | +185 | 17.21 | 26.51 |
Krause comes into the fight as a late replacement but has a 7 fight win streak. This is his UFC debut. A few years ago, he had an unsuccesful run in the WEC, but his losses came to Cerrone and Lamas, so he wasn't losing to cupcakes. Stout has been in the UFC for ages and his high level experience will make the difference here.
| Welterweight Match [UFC161-06] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 12.87 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #14 | Tyron Woodley (11-1) | -180 | 7.15 | 20.02 |
| MW #23 | Jake Shields (27-6-1, 1 NC) | +153 | 19.69 | 32.56 |
Woodley impressed with a 36 second knockout in his UFC debut. Shields ruled the Strikeforce middleweight division before moving over to the UFC where he hasn't been quite so effective. This fight will come down to whether or not Woodley can keep the fight on the feet (Tyron does have a strong wrestling background). This fight seems pretty even to me, so I'll go with the underdog.
| Heavyweight Match [UFC161-05] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 15.98 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| HW #30 | Shawn Jordan (14-4) | -102 | 15.67 | 31.65 |
| HW #47 | Pat Barry (8-5) | -122 | 13.10 | 29.08 |
Both are knockout artists, but Barry has the advantage on the feet, so Jordan's going to want to take this one to the ground like he did against Lavar Johnson. The odds are pretty even on this one, and I know the league leader is likely to go with Barry. I could be safe and do the same, but I think I'll go for the minor upset.
| Women's 135 Match [UFC161-04] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 19.59 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| W135 #5 | Alexis Davis (13-5) | -386 | 5.08 | 24.67 |
| W125 #3 | Rosi Sexton (13-2) | +310 | 60.73 | 80.32 |
I'm not sure I fully understand what the UFC is doing with it's women's bantamweight division: this is the fourth women's fight, but two of those fights have featured a fighter that's been fighting at flyweight. Such is the case in this fight with Sexton in this fight. Davis has had successful at 135, and I don't see her losing to the lighter fighter.
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC161-03] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 16.52 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #23 | Ryan Jimmo (17-2) | -252 | 6.56 | 23.08 |
| LHW #42 | Igor Pokrajac (25-9, 1 NC) | +209 | 34.53 | 51.05 |
Jimmo made a splash in his UFC debut scoring a 7 second knockout but then took a step back in his second outing. Pokajac is an even 4-4 in the UFC and shares a loss with Jimmo to Te Huna. I think Jimmo would beat a few of the guys that beat Pokajac, and this should be a good rebound fight for the "Big Deal".
| Heavyweight Match [UFC161-02] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 18.67 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| HW #9 | Roy Nelson (19-7) | -255 | 7.32 | 25.99 |
| HW #23 | Stipe Miocic (9-1) | +206 | 38.46 | 57.13 |
Miocic is the exact type of fighter that Big Country steams through. I see this being a quick fight.
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC161-01] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 20.53 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #3 | Dan Henderson (29-9) | -103 | 19.93 | 40.46 |
| LHW #6 | Rashad Evans (17-3-1) | -122 | 16.83 | 37.36 |
If Evans shows up ready and implements a smart gameplan, he probably can take this one. I'm not sure either of those points will happen. The league leaders doesn't like Rashad (nor do I), so this could be an opportunity to pick up points. However, if Hendo wins as I'd like, I'd be kicking myself. I'll avoid that and take Dan.
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