My The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Fight Picks

It's actually been a pretty good season of The Ultimate Fighter, and I'm not bummed to see so many fighters from the house on the card. The non-TUF fights on the main card are all quality too with implications to the future of three divisions.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-12]
N/A
Match Points: 3.70
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #83	Daniel Pineda (17-9)	-125	2.96	6.66
FW #282	Justin Lawrence (4-1)	-105	3.52	7.22

This fight seems like much-too-much of a step up for Justin Lawrence. He didn't fare so well against Max Halloway, and I don't expect much more success against Daniel "The Pit" Pineda.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-11]
N/A
Match Points: 2.97
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #144	Maximo Blanco (8-4-1, 1 NC)	-246	1.21	4.18
FW #208	Sam Sicilia (11-2)	+194	5.76	8.73

Neither fighter has been able to replicate his success prior to joining the UFC in the octogon, but Sicilia did start off his UFC career with a KO. I have a feeling the loser is going to get handed their walking papers, and something makes me think that fighter will be the favorite. See ya Blanco.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-10]
N/A
Match Points: 6.59
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #30	Bart Palaszewski (36-16)	-180	3.66	10.25
FW #101	Cole Miller (18-7)	+148	9.75	16.34

I don't like Palaszewski, but he certainly can bang. Both fighters have dropped two in a row and three of their last four. Bartimus owns a [split] decision victory over Anthony Pettis (surprisingly). Overall, Miller has lost to the worse competition, so I'm sadly going to have to go with Palaszewski.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-09]
Fuel
Match Points: 4.98
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #76	Bristol Marunde (12-7)	+125	6.23	11.21
MW #231	Clint Hester (7-3)	-158	3.15	8.13

Hester took part in the much more impressive season of TUF than Marunde. While I recall Bristol having some skill, Clint seems like he has much more punching power, and I think he'll handle Marunde fairly easily.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-08]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.71
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #147	Dylan Andrews (15-4, 1 NC)	-124	2.99	6.70
MW #336	Jimmy Quinlan (3-0)	-107	3.47	7.18

The first of five fights solely featuring competitors from this most recent season of TUF. Dylan made it to the semifinals while Jimmy was eliminated in the quarters, so I'll take the fighter that progressed farther.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-07]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #241	Luke Barnatt (5-0)	-132	2.41	5.59
NR	Collin Hart (4-1-1)	+101	3.21	6.39

Another one of the TUF matches. On the show, Luke lost to semifinalist Dylan while Colin lost to finalist Kelvin. Barnatt was the first pick of the season and was competitive in his loss which is more than I can say about Hart. I'll go with the top pick.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-06]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.92
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #165	Kevin Casey (5-2)	+251	9.84	13.76
MW #181	Josh Samman (9-2)	-332	1.18	5.10

The third TUF fight in a row. I'm surprised this one didn't get the main card slot over the next fight as it features Josh who was expected to be in the final with Uriah Hall. Kevin has the unfortunate distinction of being the only fighter to make the house to lose twice (the second time being in the wild card match). Casey's style is well-suited to Samman, and I expect Josh to (T)KO him.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-05]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 9.06
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #65	Robert McDaniel (20-6)	-166	5.46	14.52
NR	Gilbert Smith (5-1)	+134	12.14	21.20

The final non-championship TUF match up of the night features the fighter that I probably liked least this season: Bubba McDaniel. That may be unfair to Bubba as a large part of why I didn't like him was the favoritism he got from Jones from being a training partner. He probably has the edge in this fight, but I don't think it's to the extend the odds state.

Heavyweight Match [TUFF17-04]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 15.30
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #12	Gabriel Gonzaga (14-6)	+234	35.80	51.10
HW #17	Travis Browne (13-1-1)	-306	5.00	20.30

Is Browne truly healed from the knee injury that resulted in him dropping his last fight to Big Foot Silva? Is Gonzaga truly back and working his way back towards the top? This fight will answer those questions. Gabe definitely has a chance in this one, but I think I'm going to have to go with the favorite regardless.

Women's 135 Match [TUFF17-03]
FX / Main Card / #1 Contender Match
Match Points: 17.10
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
W135 #2	Miesha Tate (13-3)	-108	15.83	32.93
W135 #6	Cat Zingano (7-0)	-122	14.02	31.12

I'm surprised that Tate is the underdog although only slightly. Sure Zingano is undefeated, but Miesha has been champion and almost lasted a round in her fight against Rousey. I don't even recognize any of the opponents Zingano has defeated while I have some familiarity with most of Tate's past opponents. Although I'm not sure that it's time for Rousey/Tate 2, I think that's what we're going to get.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-02]
FX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 8.12
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #152	Uriah Hall (7-2)	-341	2.38	10.50
NR	Kelvin Gastelum (5-0)	+267	21.68	29.80

Gastelum was the underdog in every fight during the season, and once again, he plays that role. Uriah quickly jumped out as the favorite, and Sonnen has gone as far to say that he thinks Hall could beat anyone in the middleweight division. I don't know that I buy that, but he certainly is a beast. If he can avoid getting taken and held down by Kelvin, he should get the (T)KO and the TUF trophy.

Bantamweight Match [TUFF17-01]
FX / Main Card / Main Event
Match Points: 16.29
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #4	Urijah Faber (27-6)	-456	3.57	19.86
BW #27	Scott Jorgensen (14-6)	+352	57.34	73.63

So far in his career, Faber has only lost in title fights. This is a big fight for Jorgensen who has yet to defeat "elite" competition. And unfortunately for "Young Guns", he's unlikely to get that first big win here. I expect Urijah to dominate and pad his resume to suggest that he deserves yet another title shot.

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Lightweights

At the start of February, the UFC starting publishing media voted fighter rankings. At that time, I wrote a post comparing the UFC's rankings with those of Fight Matrix which uses a computer program to rank fighters. At the time I used a set of rules for determining who got the next title fight and who would take part in the next #1 contender match. Those rules were:

• The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
  • Won two fights in a row.
  • Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
  • Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
• The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
  • Won his last fight.
  • Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
  • Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

At the time, I broke down the rankings division-by-division to identify the next title contender and #1 contenders match participants for each division based on both of the rankings. Fighters don't fight enough to require reviewing that frequently, but I thought breaking down each division might be. As such, I've decided to do a division-by-division look at what I think should happen next. Along with the UFC and Fight Matrix rankings mentioned above, I'll also be using the rankings from Sherdog and MMA Weekly: two sites I also frequently visit for MMA news. I'll be combining the rankings from the four to get a "unified" ranking.

A few caveats must be noted before I proceed. The UFC rankings essentially have the champion at position 0. I'll be considering the champion rank 1 and move down the other fighters in the rankings respectively. The other rankings include non-UFC fighters. For Fight Matrx, the rankings are deep enough to grab a UFC top 10. Sherdog includes an "other contenders" section. In the event the top 10 includes non-UFC fighters, the "other contenders" from the UFC will be considered as tied for the bottom spot(s) and will split points accordingly. For Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, the actual ranking position will be noted when it doesn't match the used position.

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Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		04/08/2013			04/07/2013			03/18/2013			03/19/2013
1.	Benson Henderson		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Gilbert Melendez		2	(1)		2			2			2
3.	Anthony Pettis		3	(2)		3	(4)		5			3
4.	Gray Maynard		4	(3)		4	(5)		3			4
5.	Nate Diaz		5	(4)		5	(6)		4			5
6.	Jim Miller		6	(5)		9	(11)		6			6	(8)
7.	TJ Grant		8	(7)		6	(7)		8	(10)		8	(10)
8.	Donald Cerrone		7	(6)					7	(8)
9.	Khabib Nurmagomedov		10	(9)		10	(12)		T9	(OC)		7	(9)
10.	Rafael dos Anjos		9	(8)		8	(10)
	Diego Sanchez					7	(9)
	Pat Healy								T9	(OC)
	Joe Lauzon								T9	(OC)

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Matches I'd Make

Sometimes things align exactly right: the #2 ranked lightweight, Gilbert Melendez, qualifies under my rules for the next title shot. Anthony Pettis and T.J. Grant are the highest ranked fighters to qualify for the #1 contenders match, so I'd match them up for the next crack at lightweight gold. And although they've already fought, I'd set up Gray Maynard to take on Jim Miller to get one of the two on a two fight win streak and set up to take part in the next #1 contenders match. Since they are both on long win streaks, I'd match up Khabib Nurmagomedov and Pat Healy with the winner taking on the Maynard/Miller winner. As the remaining fighters coming off of a win, I'd set up Rafael dos Anjos with Diego Sanchez. It seems too soon for Diaz v Cerrone II, so I'd let Nate Diaz take on Joe Lauzon and have Donald Cerrone welcome Josh Thompson to the UFC.

Matches the UFC has Made

On the bright side, we are getting Henderson/Melendez. Pettis is dropping down to featherweight to compete for the title, so he's out of the lightweight picture (if he loses to Jose Aldo, Aldo is suppose to get the next lightweight title shot). Maynard is scheduled to face off against Grant, and Miller is taking on Healy. As for matching up ranked with unranked fighters, Diaz will be welcoming Thompson, Cerrone is welcoming K.J. Noons to the UFC (it's going to be a rough welcome), and dos Anjos is taking on Evan Dunham. The UFC is taking it slow with Khabib Nurmagomedov as he'll be facing off against Abel Trujillo.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

Only Sanchez and Lauzon lack opponents from this list. There are many who would argue that Sanchez should not have been given the decision in his last fight (I'd be one of them), so I'll match these two together. If the UFC can get the contract situation with Eddie Alvarez resolved, then I'd suggest feeding Sanchez to him instead.

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I found it interesting that all five polls had the same top five (a slight shuffle of 3-5 on Sherdog versus the other polls). The division has a good deal of depth although it's disappointing that Pettis has moved down. Not sure that I'm wild about Aldo getting the next shot at lightweight if he beats Pettis, but I would like to see Henderson/Aldo (not as much as Henderson/Pettis II though).

The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

Another week down, and the after-effects of Easter weren't really realized. I guess one can over-indulge every once in a while.

Starting off with Weight Management, I had my first "over" week of the year mostly due to a decrease in exercise. I only burned 1785 and ended 88 calories over budget for the week (ok, not really that much over). Subtract that surplus from my expected ½ pound a week loss, and you'd still expect that I'd lose 0.5 pounds. Here's my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
03/25-04/01	173.0	172.2	174.4	174.4	98.5	38.0
04/01-04/08	172.5	170.6	173.6	173.2	97.7	38.6
	-0.5	-1.6	-0.8	-1.2	-0.8	+0.6

Well, I dropped the expected half pound, but I lost more than that in water weight (and gained fat weight if you believe my scale). This could affect next week's results. On the plus side, I hit a new low for the year which is always good encouragement.

Moving onto running, I took the week off to rest up for the Credit Union SacTown Ten Mile Run as I was started to have some lingering soreness in various parts of my legs. Here's my mileage for the "week":

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
						10.12
Total Mileage: 10.12

The rest helped me beat my goal for the run, but had me short of my weekly mileage goal:

Miles Ran Short of Goal 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

And here's a look at my progress towards my goal of 800 miles ran this year:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 257.78 miles so far this year and am on track to complete 970 miles in 2013. Not sure how much I'll run this week either as I might be a bit more cautious about ramping back up especially since I don't plan on doing another race until the end of June (although I might try to pick up a run in May if possible).

The Credit Union SacTown Ten Mile Run

A couple months ago, when I signed up for the Credit Union SacTown Ten Mile Run, I thought it'd be a good tool for predicting what pace I should attempt for future half marathons (assuming I can find a 10 miler to run prior to said half marathon).

After finishing the Shamrock'n Half Marathon, my thoughts on the ten miler started to change as I began to question whether or not I'd feel a sense of accomplishment from a shorter race. However, I still go 10Ks, and since I quite like the idea of setting new personal records, having another record to challenge works for me.

I've been a bit sore since the Shamrock'n Half Marathon, so I did have some concerns about how my body would hold up for the race today. I felt more soreness during today's run than the half, but I held up well, so I was pleased with that.

Rain was in the forecast for today for most of the week, but thankfully it was dry. It was a bit on the cool side, but not too cool, so it was probably an ideal day for the run.

I started off a bit faster than I was planning: completing the first mile in 8:10 and the next two in 8:15 each. I had planned to keep each mile between 8:20 and 8:30. I couldn't keep up with the quick pace, and my fourth mile was down to 8:25, and then my next three were right around 8:30 (my sixth mile was 8:31). I picked it up a bit for the eighth mile finishing in 8:26 but then slowed down to my worst mile for the ninth at 8:33. I dug deep for the final mile finishing it in 8:14. I ended up running roughly an extra tenth mile as part of the run.

I was pleased to beat my goal of finishing in under 85 minutes. Further pleased that my pace was only 3.3 seconds/mile slower than my 10K PR and 12.7 seconds/mile faster than I ran the Shamrock'n Half Marathon. I nearly completed the first 10K of the run faster than my 10K PR which strongly suggests that I ought to be able to set a new 10K PR the next time out (unless the course is unusually hard).

My Where's George Week in Review: 03/31/13 - 04/06/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 35 hits in 6 States [AZ², CA²⁶, ME, MI, NY, WA⁴]. Of those hits, 1 was the 4^th hit on the bill (my eighth four hit bill and my second straight week with one), 9 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (25) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
31	01	02	03	04	05	06
2	6	1	4	8	8	6

I came into the week with a 51 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 58 days: good for a tie for my 4^th longest streak all-time. Here's a look at my all-time ten longest hit streaks:

Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days		Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days
1.	10/07/2012	01/02/2013	88		6.	09/26/2011	11/18/2011	54
2.	12/28/2011	03/17/2012	81		7.	06/24/2012	08/16/2012	54
3.	04/13/2011	06/30/2011	79		8.	04/04/2012	05/21/2012	48
4.	07/28/2011	09/23/2011	58		9.	01/04/2013	02/06/2013	34
5.	02/08/2013	04/06/2013	58		10.	07/21/2010	08/21/2010	32

Of the 6 States in which I received hits this past week, 1 were the first hit for that State in 2013: Maine. Overall I've received hits in 31 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

The hit in Maine was my first since August of 2012.

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 504. The newly hit counties were Hancock ME and Lapeer MI. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 13 Days 12 Hours 43 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 7^th on my all-time longest active list. My top ten longest active bills list is now:

Rank	Bill Info			Time Active	Last Update	Hits
1.	$10	2003	DL947---91A	4 Years 238 Days 13 Hours 41 Minutes	03/08/2013	2
2.	$1	2003A	L4532---3K	4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes	10/12/2012	1
3.	$1	2003A	L3475---2C	4 Years 165 Days 9 Hours 56 Minutes	02/04/2013	2
4.	$10	2006	IB188---86B	4 Years 103 Days 18 Hours 40 Minutes	03/20/2013	1
5.	$5	2003	DL906---99C	4 Years 56 Days 48 Minutes	09/11/2012	1
6.	$1	2006	H9275---2A	4 Years 17 Days 1 Minute	09/14/2012	2
7.	$1	2006	L5563---1A	4 Years 13 Days 12 Hours 43 Minutes	04/06/2013	1
8.	$1	2006	I8453---4A	4 Years 12 Days 21 Hours 41 Minutes	02/15/2013	1
9.	$1	2006	I8180---6A	4 Years 9 Days 5 Hours 28 Minutes	03/30/2013	3
10.	$10	2006	IB639---42A	4 Years 3 Days 22 Hours 55 Minutes	06/13/2012	1

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	24440	24540	100	1620	28920	115.1	24498	-15	+42
Bills with Hits	3704	4005	4030	25	326	5074	26.3	4064	-1	-34
Total Hits	4330	4697	4732	35	402	6030	32.6	4777	+2	-45

I was surprised that I was short on my bill entered mark for the week: I had thought I'd easily have surpassed it in this past week. It was a good week for hits, and my bills with hits and total hits for the week were right on target.

At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 6159 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to just average 114.0 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 88.01% [+0.38%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	21503	21598	95	1512	25634	92.5	21584	+3	+14
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6159.375 entries this year rather than 6000						25775	92.4	21583	+3	+15

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD	#IBNumber of Inserted Bills
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	841	3.44%	842	3.43%	3.51%	844	-2	29
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1830	7.49%	1852	7.55%	7.58%	1826	+26	26
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	712	2.91%	719	2.93%	2.96%	711	+8	21
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	893	3.65%	897	3.66%	3.67%	885	+12	0
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1687	6.90%	1700	6.93%	7.05%	1696	+4	2
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2277	9.32%	2293	9.34%	9.64%	2283	+10	11
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1624	6.64%	1630	6.64%	6.75%	1624	+6	4
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	796	3.26%	803	3.27%	3.33%	800	+3	17
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	649	2.66%	650	2.65%	2.73%	653	-3	38
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	600	2.45%	603	2.46%	2.53%	606	-3	34
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	1033	4.23%	1038	4.23%	4.36%	1036	+2	34

At this point in the year, if I've entered 26 bills for a particular FRB than I'm on pace to enter 100 bills for that FRB. Looks like I'm going to need more than 100 bills to insert for Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and Boston.

Another good week of hits, but this week was saved by an impressive final three days of the week. April and May were my top two months for hits last year, and I hope this's years are at least as good as last.

My UFC on FuelTV 7 Fight Picks

In my opinion, this is a bad card that's been made much worse. I'm hopeful that the fighters will put on quite a show to make up for the lack of star power. I guess this is the problem with FuelTV cards: with limited availability, there's no good reason to put on a stellar card. I guess on the positive side, the existence of these cards allows the UFC to employee more fighters.

Welterweight Match [FUEL9-13]
N/A
Match Points: 2.03
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #374	Papy Abedi (8-2)	-136	1.49	3.52
NR	Besam Yousef (6-1)	+111	2.25	4.28

What better way to ensure a fighter from the home country gets a win than to set up two local fighters to face off? Papy and Besam both fought and loss on the last card in Sweden. Hard to think that there could be a fight worth less points than this one. I don't care who wins, so I'll just take Abedi as the favorite

Middleweight Match [FUEL9-12]
N/A
Match Points: 6.40
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #44	Tom Lawlor (8-5, 1 NC)	-185	3.46	9.86
MW #81	Michael Kuiper (12-1)	+156	9.98	16.38

Lawlor's been in the UFC for a while, but a loss here could see an end to that reign. Kuiper has the far superior record, but it's come against far weaker competition. Regardless, "Judo" is a finisher and has yet to be finished, so I'll take the underdog.

Welterweight Match [FUEL9-11]
N/A
Match Points: 3.04
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #133	Ben Alloway (12-3)	+163	4.96	8.00
WW #220	Ryan LaFlare (7-0)	-194	1.57	4.61

Who are these guys? I guess Alloway has fought in the UFC once and won, but I don't recall his name. LaFlare is perfect with all wins via finish, so I'll take him.

Featherweight Match [FUEL9-10]
N/A
Match Points: 6.86
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #79	Conor McGregor (12-2)	-166	4.13	10.99
FW #34	Marcus Brimage (6-1)	+140	9.60	16.46

McGregor was the CWFC lightweight champion before jumping ship to the UFC and dropping down to featherweight. Brimage has three UFC fights and victories, although all have come via decision. McGregor has only made it to the second round 3 times, and he's never been to a third. I worry that with the extra weight cut, that he may not be able to go the distance, and with Brimage, there's a likely chance that'll happen. So I'll go with Marcus.

Welterweight Match [FUEL9-09]
N/A
Match Points: 5.06
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #47	Adlan Amagov (11-2-1)	-166	3.05	8.11
WW #180	Chris Spang (5-1)	+140	7.08	12.14

Another battle of "Who They?", but I guess both are Strikeforce veterns. Amagov has the better nickname ("The Wolf" versus "The Kiss"), so he's my pick.

Middleweight Match [FUEL9-08]
N/A
Match Points: 4.79
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #43	Tor Troeng (15-4-1)	-239	2.00	6.79
NR	Adam Cella (4-0)	+194	9.29	14.08

A couple of the members of the current season of TUF, both suffered KO losses in their first fights after getting into the house. I don't know much about either but that, so I'll go with the Swede and favorite, Troeng.

Lightweight Match [FUEL9-07]
N/A
Match Points: 6.24
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #35	Michael Johnson (12-7)	-231	2.70	8.94
LW #109	Reza Madadi (12-3)	+188	11.73	17.97

Johnson was pretty awful in his last fight but has a massive experience advantage over Madadi. That experience difference will come into play here, and "The Menace" will get back on the winning track here.

Featherweight Match [FUEL9-06]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 10.08
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #15	Robbie Peralta (16-3, 1 NC)	-357	2.82	12.90
FW #120	Akira Corassani (10-3, 1 NC)	+282	28.43	38.51

The first fight on the main card leaves much to be desired. I'm not familiar with Corassani, but I can see he's from Sweden. That's not going to help him here, and he'll fall to Peralta.

Featherweight Match [FUEL9-05]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 9.97
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #38	Pablo Garza (12-3)	+173	17.25	27.22
FW #68	Diego Brandao (16-8)	-212	4.70	14.67

Brandao, a former TUF winner, is going to want to end this one early. The longer this match continues, the better chance Garza has to wear him out and steal the decision (or catch him in a submission). If the same Pablo shows up as did in his last fight, I think we'll see "the Scarecrow" steal this decision. With the odds the way they are, I'm willingly to take that gamble.

Bantamweight Match [FUEL9-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 12.10
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #13	Brad Pickett (22-7)	-160	7.56	19.66
BW #41	Mike Easton (13-2)	+134	16.21	28.31

Pickett's only WEC/UFC losses have come to fighters in the title picture and he even owns a victory over the flyweight champion. Easton is 3-1 since moving over to the UFC, but two of those wins are against now UFC rejects. Easton hasn't fought a fighter of Pickett's calibar, and it's going to show on Saturday.

Heavyweight Match [FUEL9-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 9.95
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #34	Matt Mitrione (5-2)	-326	3.05	13.00
HW #75	Philip De Fries (9-2, 1 NC)	+260	25.87	35.82

"Meathead" is coming off of two straight losses after winning his first five fights (all fights have been in the UFC). 4 of his 5 wins have come via (T)KO. De Fries has lost two of his last three and both were via knockout. He's a submission specialist and is going to want to take Mitrione to the mat. As a former NFL player, Mitrione is athletic enough to evade those attempts and should be able to set up the KO in the process.

Lightweight Match [FUEL9-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 10.68
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #44	Ross Pearson (14-6)	-401	2.66	13.34
LW #53	Ryan Couture (6-1)	+313	33.43	44.11

While Pearson is by no means a big star, he is by far more experienced and much more dangerous than any foe Couture has faced. Couture's biggest win to date was against K.J. Noons: a bout that many thought he lost. This is going to be a rough welcome to the UFC (perhaps the UFC is trying to bank on the Couture name too early sticking Ryan in a co-main event where he's severly overmatched).

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL9-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event
Match Points: 13.56
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #11	Gegard Mousasi (33-3-2)	-1054	1.29	14.85
LHW #33	Ilir Latifi (7-2, 1 NC)	+606	82.17	95.73

An unfortunately timed cut to Alexander Gustafsson has ruined the one match up of interest on this card. And while Latifi may be better for what I'm giving him credit, he's going to have a rough time taking this fight on short notice. Mousasi will finish this one early.

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Featherweights

At the start of February, the UFC starting publishing media voted fighter rankings. At that time, I wrote a post comparing the UFC's rankings with those of Fight Matrix which uses a computer program to rank fighters. At the time I used a set of rules for determining who got the next title fight and who would take part in the next #1 contender match. Those rules were:

• The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
  • Won two fights in a row.
  • Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
  • Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
• The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
  • Won his last fight.
  • Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
  • Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

At the time, I broke down the rankings division-by-division to identify the next title contender and #1 contenders match participants for each division based on both of the rankings. Fighters don't fight enough to require reviewing that frequently, but I thought breaking down each division might be. As such, I've decided to do a division-by-division look at what I think should happen next. Along with the UFC and Fight Matrix rankings mentioned above, I'll also be using the rankings from Sherdog and MMA Weekly: two sites I also frequently visit for MMA news. I'll be combining the rankings from the four to get a "unified" ranking.

A few caveats must be noted before I proceed. The UFC rankings essentially have the champion at position 0. I'll be considering the champion rank 1 and move down the other fighters in the rankings respectively. The other rankings include non-UFC fighters. For Fight Matrx, the rankings are deep enough to grab a UFC top 10. Sherdog includes an "other contenders" section. In the event the top 10 includes non-UFC fighters, the "other contenders" from the UFC will be considered as tied for the bottom spot(s) and will split points accordingly. For Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, the actual ranking position will be noted when it doesn't match the used position.

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Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		03/18/2013			03/31/2013			03/18/2013			03/19/2013
1.	Jose Aldo		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Ricardo Lamas		3	(2)		6	(7)		3	(4)		2
3.	Chad Mendes		2	(1)		8	(11)		2	(3)		3
4.	Frankie Edgar		4	(3)		2						4
5.	Cub Swanson		6	(5)		5	(6)		9	(10)		6
6.	Chan Sung Jung		5	(4)		9	(12)		8	(9)		5
7.	Clay Guida		9	(8)		3			4	(5)
8.	Dennis Siver		7	(6)		4	(5)		6	(7)
9.	Nik Lentz		10	(9)		7	(9)		7	(8)
10.	Dustin Poirier		8	(7)					T10	(OC)		7	(8)
	Hatsu Hioki					10	(13)		5	(6)
	Erik Koch								T10	(OC)		8	(9)
	Darren Elkins								T10	(OC)		9	(10)
	Diego Nunes								T10	(OC)

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Matches I'd Make

Ricardo Lamas is the clear #1 contender both by my rules and in my opinion, so he gets the next crack at Jose Aldo. Chad Mendes has won both of his fights since he challenged for the title and lost, so he's eligible for the #1 contenders match. Swanson is the next highest fighter who qualifies, and although those two have squared off, it was back in 2010 in the WEC, so it's fine for them to go at it again. The depth of the featherweight division (compared to featherweight and bantamweight) is obvious, as the #6 - #9 are all coming off of a win. Might as well take advantage of that, and put together two matches that will determine those that will take part in the next #1 contenders match. As with a tournament, I'll have the highest ranked fighter go against the lowest, so I've line up Chan Sung Jung with Nik Lentz and Clay Guida with Dennis Siver. As for those coming off of a loss, I'll match up Frankie Edgar with Dustin Poirier to get one of those guys back on the right track. I'll also match up the almost title contenders of Hatsu Hioki and Erik Koch to see which really does deserve to be in the top ten.

Matches the UFC has Made

Here's a division where the matches put together vary greatly from what I'd do. Once again, the UFC is having the champion take on a top contender dropping down from 155: Anthony Pettis has jumped the line and gets the next crack at Aldo. Instead of fighting for the title, Lamas will be taking on Sung Jung (whom I had thought the UFC had declared the #1 contender). Perhaps the winner of this one gets the next shot at featherweight gold. Mendes was suppose to take on Guida next, but Guida pulled out due to injury, so Mendes will be fighting Darren Elkins instead. Swanson will be taking on Siver, and the winner should be in the discussion for the next title shot (perhaps if Aldo wins the title and permanently moves up to lightweight, this winner takes on the winner of Lamas/Sung Jung for the vacated title). Lentz is taking on the streaking Hacran Dias (winner of nine straight). And for Edgar, the UFC reached outside of the top ten to match him up with Charles Oliveira. Seems like quite the step down for Edgar; perhaps the UFC is trying too hard to get him his first win after three losses.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

Not many in the top ten (or slightly beyond) are without a fight: Guida (injuried), Poirier, Hioki, Nunes, and Koch. Might as well match them by closeness in rank and have Poirier take on Hioki and Nunes take on Koch and get two of those guys back on track. I'll hold back Guida to allow time for him to heal and then he'll take on a winner in a match to be named later.

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To be honest, I didn't think I'd enjoy putting together match ups for the featherweight division as much as I did. The division is truly deeper than I had previous thought and could become one of the UFC's most open divisions if Aldo indeed moves up to lightweight. And while I'm looking forward to the Aldo/Pettis fight, it will be nice once true featherweights start getting title shots again.