After taking the year off from fantasy football, I started to get the fantasy league itch. Having previously played and not enjoyed fantasy basketball and baseball and with the next fantasy football season so far away, I started to look for other options. What made most sense to me was a "seasonless" sport (played all year long like tennis or golf). Since I'm an MMA fan, I thought that would be a perfect fit.
MMA doesn't work well for a draft league as fighters don't fight very often in a year. It does nicely work for pick 'em, so that's the direction I went. I looked for pick 'em leagues online, but didn't find one that I really liked. Most centered around picking the winner, how the fight ended, and potentially what round/what minute of what round the fight ended.
I wasn't a big fan of picking the round/minute since for decisions that's always the 5th minute of the 3rd (or 5th) round. Additionally all fights were worth the same amount of points regardless of "importance" and there didn't seem to be a bonus for picking underdogs. For some, picking the result/round/minute was worth as much as picking the winner. So if you picked the loser but got the result and round right, you'd score more than picking the winner but nothing else correct. That seemed weak.
My first thought was to base the league on vegas betting odds. Players would have a set amount to wager each event. However, not all fights have odds and it wouldn't put the focus on the "important" fights.
So I decided to draft my own rules (something I've done previously for NASCAR fantasy leagues with various levels of success). For my league, I wanted fights to be worth more points the more "important" and "visible" it was and the higher ranked the participants were. I wanted more points to be awarded for picking underdogs and more points for bigger underdogs. Additionally, I wanted players to be able to "wager" points on how the fight would be finished, but that those wagers would only be active if the chosen fighter won. The reward for the wagering should differ based on outcome possiblity (TKO, submission, or decision) and be based on the fighter's past outcomes.
A key factor in making the league work was determining what would decide fighter ranking and determining which fighter was the underdog and by how much. For this, I decided to use the computerized rankings from Fight Matrix. These provide both a divisional numeric rank (used to determine fight points) and a fighter's points (used to determine underdog status).
I definitely didn't keep KISS (keep it simple, stupid) in mind when developing the league/rules, so this first cut is likely (aka definitely) way too complex. Hopefully after a few events/months, I'll have a better idea if the idea was a successful and what needs improvement.
With no longer ado (not saying that wasn't a lot of ado), here are the first cut rules:
2012 UFC Fantasy League Rules
- The league will run from January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012. Every UFC event during the year will be included as part of the league.
- The winner of the league will be the participant with the most points. Points will be accumulated by picking the winner and optionally the method of victory for each fight. In the event of a blowout or the league turns out to not be fun, the participants may chose to concede and/or end the league early.
- Points per fight will be determined based on which station is scheduled to air the fight, the "categorization" of the fight, and the Fight Matrix ranking of each fighter participating in the fight according to the following:
- Points based on broadcast will be assigned as such:
- PPV: 8 points
- Fox: 7 points
- FX/Spike: 5 points
- FuelTV: 3 points
- N/A: 2 points
- Others: To be agreed upon by players. Should be in sync with above.
- Points based on "categorization" of the fight will be assigned as such (a fight can fall into multiple of these categories and will receive points for each):
- Main Card: 2 points
- Co-Main Event: ½ point
- Main Event: 1 point
- #1 Contenders Match: ½ point
- Interim Title Fight: 2 points
- Championship Fight: 3 points
- Points based on Fight Matrix fighter rating (a fighter without a rating will be considered to be rank 999) will be awarded for each fighter based on a half-life decay starting from 5 points and completing a decay cycle every 50 ranks (i.e. #1 adds 5 points, #51 adds 2.5, #101 adds 1.25) based on the following formula (where P is points and R is rank):
- P = 5e-(R-1)*Log(2)/50
- Points awarded per fighter in a fight will be based on the fight's points as determined from above as well as an adjustment made based on favorite versus underdog based on Fight Matrix ranking points. This will be calculated as follows:
- If a fighter is fighting outside of his ranked division, his points will be adjusted by a factor of (ranked division)/(current fight division). This will result in lower points for fighters moving up and more points for fighters moving down.
- An unranked fighter will be considered to be rank 999 with one-fourth of the amount of points of his opponent. If both fighters are unranked, both fighters will be considered to have 1 ranking point.
- A fighter's expected win percentage will be equal to that fighter's points divided by the sum of both fighters' points.
- The total adjustment will be equal to one-fifth of the fight's points multiplied by the difference in the two fighters' expected win percentage.
- The points awarded for each fighter will be as follows (where F is fight points, A is adjustment, P is points, W is win percentage, F represents the favorite, and U represents the underdog):
- PF = F - A * WU
- PU = F + A * WF
- Additionally, participants may optionally risk awarded points by choosing how a fighter will win the fight. This will work as follows:
- (T)KO, Submission, and Decision will be the available options. If a fight ends for any other reason (i.e. Disqualification) these bets will be considered "off" (no points lost/awarded).
- Such risks are only "in play" if the winner of the fight was correctly picked.
- The amount of points awarded per point risked will be based on a fighter's previous results as based on the following (where P is points and W is the percentage of wins from a certain result):
- P = 0.95 / W
- The maximum ratio of points awarded per point risked is 7.5.
- The maximum amount of a points gained from result predicting for a particular fight is 10.
- No points will be awarded for a fight that ends in a draw.
- Results of fights that officially change will only be updated in the fantasy league if the modification occurs within a week of the fight.
- Points will be rounded to the nearest hundredth.
- Picks will be due by 11:59 PM on the day before the event.
| Heavyweight Match [UFC141-01] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / #1 Contender Match | |||||||
| Brock Lesnar | Alistair Overeem | ||||||
| HW #3 / 442 points | HW #4 / 425 points | ||||||
| 5 - 2 - 0 | 35 - 11 - 0 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 14 (T)KO, 19 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 21.06 | Win Points: 21.27 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.38:1 | 2.38:1 | 4.75:1 | Payout: | 2.38:1 | 1.75:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 7.24 | 7.24 | 2.66 | Max Bet: | 7.24 | 13.33 | 1.53 |
| Lightweight Match [UFC141-02] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Donald Cerrone | Nate Diaz | ||||||
| LW #7 / 241 points | LW #11 / 187 points | ||||||
| 17 - 3 - 0 (1 NC) | 14 - 7 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 1 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 3 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.91 | Win Points: 20.14 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.24:1 | 5.38:1 | Payout: | 4.43:1 | 1.33:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 18.91 | 2.28 | Max Bet: | 2.91 | 20.14 | 1.53 |
| Welterweight Match [UFC141-03] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Jon Fitch | Johny Hendricks | ||||||
| WW #4 / 410 points | WW #25 / 173 points | ||||||
| 23 - 3 - 1 (1 NC) | 11 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 13 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.27 | Win Points: 21.01 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.37:1 | 4.37:1 | 1.68:1 | Payout: | 1.74:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.61:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.96 | 2.96 | 14.70 | Max Bet: | 13.51 | 1.53 | 6.21 |
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC141-04] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Alexander Gustafsson | Vladimir Matyushenko | ||||||
| LHW #13 / 216 points | LHW #23 / 145 points | ||||||
| 12 - 1 - 0 | 26 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 8 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 9 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 10 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.21 | Win Points: 18.97 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.43:1 | 3.80:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.74:1 | 3.53:1 | 2.47:1 |
| Max Bet: | 17.21 | 3.57 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 5.74 | 3.95 | 6.80 |
| Featherweight Match [UFC141-05] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Nam Phan | Jim Hettes | ||||||
| FW #58 / 67 points | FW #65 / 67 points | ||||||
| 17 - 9 - 0 | 9 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 5 Dec | Wins: 0 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 14.33 | Win Points: 14.33 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.31:1 | 3.23:1 | 3.23:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 0.95:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 7.63 | 4.48 | 4.48 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| Featherweight Match [UFC141-06] | |||||||
| Spike / Prelim | |||||||
| Junior Assuncao | Ross Pearson | ||||||
| FW #23 / 113 points | LW #62 / 88 points | ||||||
| 13 - 4 - 0 | 12 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.58 | Win Points: 11.16 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.12:1 | 2.06:1 | 3.09:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 2.28:1 | 2.85:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.20 | 9.43 | 4.78 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 7.81 | 5.40 |
| Lightweight Match [UFC141-07] | |||||||
| Spike / Prelim | |||||||
| Danny Castillo | Anthony Njokuani | ||||||
| LW #44 / 107 points | LW #117 / 64 points | ||||||
| 12 - 4 - 0 | 14 - 5 - 0 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 3 Dec | Wins: 8 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 6 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 8.34 | Win Points: 9.44 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.28:1 | 2.85:1 | 3.80:1 | Payout: | 1.66:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.22:1 |
| Max Bet: | 7.81 | 5.40 | 3.57 | Max Bet: | 9.44 | 1.53 | 8.19 |
| Welterweight Match [UFC141-08] | |||||||
| N/A / Prelim | |||||||
| Dong Hyun Kim | Sean Pierson | ||||||
| WW #30 / 150 points | WW #91 / 75 points | ||||||
| 14 - 1 - 1 (1 NC) | 11 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 7 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.40 | Win Points: 7.53 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.22:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 1.74:1 | 2.61:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.40 | 1.53 | 6.40 | Max Bet: | 7.53 | 6.21 | 1.53 |
| Lightweight Match [UFC141-09] | |||||||
| N/A / Prelim | |||||||
| Jacob Volkmann | Efrain Escudero | ||||||
| LW #24 / 152 points | LW #124 / 62 points | ||||||
| 13 - 2 - 0 | 18 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 0 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 6 Dec, 1 Other | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.14 | Win Points: 7.52 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.43:1 | 3.42:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 6.14 | 6.14 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 7.52 | 4.13 |
| Featherweight Match [UFC141-10] | |||||||
| N/A / Prelim | |||||||
| Manny Gamburyan | Diego Nunes | ||||||
| FW #12 / 144 points | FW #20 / 127 points | ||||||
| 11 - 6 - 0 | 16 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 9.98 | Win Points: 10.30 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 5.23:1 | 1.74:1 | 3.48:1 | Payout: | 3.04:1 | 2.53:1 | 3.04:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.36 | 9.98 | 4.03 | Max Bet: | 4.90 | 6.53 | 4.90 |
Example Picks
| Pick | Match | Winner | Result | Result Wager |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | UFC141-01 | Brock Lesnar | ||
| B | UFC141-01 | Brock Lesnar | (T)KO | 3.62 |
| C | UFC141-01 | Alistair Overeem | ||
| D | UFC141-01 | Alistair Overeem | (T)KO | 3.62 |
| E | UFC141-01 | Alistair Overeem | Sub | 6.66 |
Assume for this example that Alistair Overeem defeats Brock Lesnar by TKO. In that case, points would be awarded for the above picks as follows:
- A: 0.00 points awarded because Brock Lesnar lost.
- B: 0.00 points awarded because Brock Lesnar lost. Even though the fight ended by TKO, the correct winner must be picked for the result wager to be active.
- C: 21.27 points awarded because Alistair Overeem won.
- D: 26.27 points awarded because Alistair Overeem won and the correct result was picked. [The math works out as follows: 21.27 - 3.62 + 3.62 * 2.38]
- E: 14.61 points awarded because Alistair Overeem won but the incorrect result was picked. [The math works out as follows: 21.27 - 6.66]
- If a fighter wins too often via a certain method, betting will not be allowed on that method for that fighter because such a bet will always be a losing bet (less than 1 point return on a 1 point bet). For example, prior to the Nam Phan fight, Jim Hettes won all of his nine fights via submission. Therefore, picking Hettes to win be submission had 0.95:1 odds which doesn't make sense.
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