Chris's World: October 2013

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Heavyweights

Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.

My previous post on the UFC Heavyweights can be found here.

Here's what's happened in the division in the past eight weeks:

Cain Velasquez defeated Junior Dos Santos at UFC 166 to retain the title
Daniel Cormier defeated Roy Nelson at UFC 166
Gabriel Gonzaga defeated Shawn Jordan at UFC 166
Brendan Schaub defeated Matt Mitrione at UFC 165
Daniel Omielanczuk defeated Nandor Guelmino at UFC 165

The combined rankings for the division are now as such:

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix		Sherdog		MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/28/2013			10/27/2013		10/28/2013		10/27/2013
1.	Cain Velasquez		1	(0)		1		1		1
2.	Junior Dos Santos		2	(1)		2		2		2
3.	Daniel Cormier		3	(2)		3		4		3
4.	Fabricio Werdum		4	(3)		5		3		4
5.	Antonio Silva		5	(4)		4		5		5
6.	Josh Barnett		7	(6)		7		6		6
7.	Travis Browne		6	(5)		6		9		7
8.	Frank Mir		9	(8)		10		7		8
9.	Alistair Overeem		8	(7)		8				9
10.	Mark Hunt					9				10
	Antonio Nogueira							8
	Stipe Miocic		10	(9)
	Gabriel Gonzaga							10

The only change in rankings in the past eight weeks was a swapping of positions by Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem with the main reason for the swap being that the Sherdog rankings were stale (nearly a month old) last go round and didn't include Overeem's loss to Browne.

The division has a bit of a problem on it's hand as Dos Santos has now lost twice convincingly to Cain and is unlikely to get another shot although he is the consensus #2 in the division. As such, Junior is likely to play the role of spoiler for the next couple years knocking guys off track on their way to title shots. Going to be interesting to see how the UFC chooses to use him. Unfortunately, he's likely too large to attempt a drop to light heavyweight.

My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, I'd make the same match that I would eight weeks ago: Cain Velasquez defending against Daniel Cormier (as with eight weeks ago, I know that they are teammates that have said that they won't fight and that Cormier is dropping down to light heavyweight - regardless, this is the title fight to make based on my rules). Fabricio Werdum would be matched against Josh Barnett to determine the #1 contendership. The only other fighter in the top ten coming off of a win is Travis Browne. I'd set him up against Stipe Miocic who's just outside the top ten. As for those coming off of losses, I'd match up the two most recent title challengers to get one back on the win column: Junior Dos Santos and Antonio Silva. Neither is likely to get another crack at Cain soon (Silva has a worse argument than Dos Santos to ever get another rematch) so pairing them up prevents either from doing an actual contender harm. I'd set up Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem to do battle (mostly to see which one is beyond washed up). As for Mark Hunt, I'd match him against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Looking just outside the top ten, Gabriel Gonzaga has heated up as of late. With no one available above him in the rankings, I'd give him a chance to avenge his loss to Brendan Schaub.

Matches the UFC has Made

Velasquez versus Werdum has been stated to be the next title fight at heavyweight, but it hasn't been officially set up yet. Big Foot is set to go to battle against Hunt at UFC Fight Night in Australia in December. Browne is going to lock horns with Barnett at the last PPV of the year (UFC 168). Mir and Overeem will face off at the annual Super Bowl PPV in February.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

From the combined top ten, only Dos Santos and Cormier lack opponents. If I accept the fact that Daniel is moving down, that just leaves Junior. Based on the beating he took just a week and a half ago, I think it's fair to leave him on the sidelines for now and see how the Silva/Hunt and Browne/Barnett fights in December turn out. If Big Foot loses, I'd say give him to Dos Santos otherwise Junior takes on the Browne/Barnett loser.

The lack of depth in the heavyweight division is going to hurt in the future, but the division will likely be okay for title challengers in 2014 if they just need two: Werdum and then the winner of Browne/Barnett. It will be interesting to see if the UFC chooses to wait for the next title fight until Memorial Day weekend since this last title fight was earlier in the year than usual.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 8

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	7.3%	11.5%	-3.6%	-5.6%
Miami Dolphins	10.7%	18.9%	-8.4%	-10.3%
New England Patriots	65.8%	76.1%	+20.6%	+16.5%
New York Jets	16.2%	26.5%	-8.6%	-11.4%

It was another good week for the Patriots in which they defeated a division rival and watched as the other two teams in the division lost. Only one other team saw their division winning and playoff making percentages jump by double digits (Bengals). None of the other teams in the division are dead yet, but the Grim Reaper is closing in.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	16.3%	22.7%	-1.2%	-0.9%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.3%	76.4%	+12.3%	+10.8%
Cleveland Browns	9.8%	14.3%	-6.4%	-9.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.6%	10.8%	-4.6%	-7.1%

Other than Cincinnati's three win, the other teams in the division have only combined for one win in the past three weeks, and that win belongs to Pittsburgh. Baltimore and Cleveland have fallen off of the edge of the world, although perhaps a bit of slack could be given to the Ravens who were off this past weekend. Like the East, no teams are out of it in this division, so they'll hit that designation soon.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	12.4%	15.0%	+0.2%	+0.2%
Indianapolis Colts	67.0%	71.8%	+0.9%	+0.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.2%	1.4%	-1.4%	-1.7%
Tennessee Titans	19.4%	26.5%	+0.3%	+0.0%

A few weeks ago, this division had the best three way race for the lead, but now the Colts are running away with things. All three of the "top" teams were off this past weekend, and the Texans and Titans will need to return well-rested from the break if they want to make up ground. The Jags are off this weekend (they seem to be off every weekend honestly) and can prep to go 0-8 for the final eight.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	33.4%	83.5%	+1.1%	+8.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.4%	93.0%	+1.5%	+4.6%
Oakland Raiders	2.2%	17.9%	-0.4%	+5.3%
San Diego Chargers	7.0%	33.7%	-2.1%	+0.2%

Oakland won and San Diego was off, but even still, both saw their odds of winning the division decrease as Kansas City and Denver improved to 8-0 and 7-1 respectively. As of now, we could be seeing both wild cards come out of this division.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	54.7%	58.2%	-0.1%	-5.1%
New York Giants	10.2%	11.4%	+4.5%	+4.3%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.6%	24.8%	-3.8%	-9.1%
Washington Redskins	14.4%	15.9%	-0.6%	-3.6%

Another bad week for the NFC East with only the Giants picking up a win (against division rival Philadelphia). The Cowboys would have a commanding lead if they hadn't blown leads against the Broncos and Lions. Although they currently statistically have the worst chance, I almost fear that New York is really the favorite to win this division.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	21.9%	35.0%	-4.8%	-5.1%
Detroit Lions	29.8%	51.1%	+2.8%	+7.3%
Green Bay Packers	46.8%	62.3%	+5.8%	+7.1%
Minnesota Vikings	1.5%	3.9%	-3.8%	-3.7%

Home of the best three team race in the NFL, Green Bay has the opportunity to bury Chicago this Monday at home. At this point, the Minnesota is all but done.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	5.4%	11.5%	-4.7%	-9.6%
Carolina Panthers	23.7%	43.5%	+2.4%	+6.8%
New Orleans Saints	70.4%	84.3%	+4.7%	+4.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.5%	2.5%	-2.3%	-2.3%

Of all teams, the Saints have the largest lead in their division, but the Panthers have started to move forward in the past few weeks and have become part of the wild card conversation. The Buccaneers, who have one less loss than the Jaguars, are the most dead of any team in the NFL.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	4.5%	24.8%	-0.4%	+5.5%
San Francisco 49ers	28.5%	72.6%	+0.5%	+7.0%
Seattle Seahawks	64.4%	88.4%	+6.3%	+6.2%
St. Louis Rams	2.5%	10.0%	-6.3%	-9.8%

Seattle has won a couple of games on the road that they "should" have lost (against Carolina and St. Louis), and those types of wins are the ones that bring about championships. Things are still strongly indicating that the top wild card team will come out of this division.

There are 19 teams that might not win their division even if they were to win out from here. Of those teams, five may not even make the playoffs if they win out. The Buccaneers have the worst shot at winning their division but have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jaguars.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.6%	71.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	30.2%	34.9%
Minnesota Vikings	41.6%	94.3%
St. Louis Rams	48.9%	99.8%
Oakland Raiders	53.7%	100.0%
Arizona Cardinals	70.0%	100.0%
Atlanta Falcons	81.2%	100.0%
Buffalo Bills	83.1%	99.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	92.7%	100.0%
Cleveland Browns	92.8%	100.0%
New York Jets	93.0%	100.0%
New York Giants	93.7%	99.8%
Miami Dolphins	97.1%	100.0%
San Diego Chargers	98.1%	100.0%
Houston Texans	99.0%	100.0%
Washington Redskins	99.1%	100.0%
Philadelphia Eagles	99.1%	100.0%
Detroit Lions	99.6%	100.0%
San Francisco 49ers	99.9%	100.0%

The NFL's top team (the Kansas City Chiefs) have started to lock up their playoff spot. Even if Kansas City lost out from here, they'd still make the playoffs 0.7% of the team. Granted that's not much, but it's interesting that they're already starting to show up in this category.

Monday, October 28, 2013

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 8

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

We are now at the "sort of" midway point in the NFL season: half of the 32 teams have played 8 games (the other half have only played seven). Currently there are no ties within any of the divisions (and only one tie that affects a playoff position), so today's run down will be a lot easier than usual.

Starting off with the AFC East, the Patriots added a game to their game this past weekend and now lead the Jets by two games. The Dolphins follow a half game back, and the Bills are a half game behind Miami.

Up North, Cincinnati won their fourth straight game and now lead Baltimore by two and a half games. Cleveland is a half game behind the Ravens, and Pittsburgh is a half game behind the Browns.

In the South, the Colts lead the Titans by two games and the Texans by three. The Jaguars are an embarrassing 0-8 (5.5 games behind Indianapolis).

Out West, undefeated Kansas City leads Denver by a game. San Diego is 2.5 games behind the Broncos, and Oakland is a game back of the Chargers.

Ranking the divisional leaders, the Chiefs are two games ahead of the Bengals and Patriots. Cincinnati has the tie breaking edge over New England since they won their head-to-head match up. Indianapolis was off this past weekend and fell a half game behind the tied duo.

As for the wild cards, the Broncos have the best record of the second place teams and thus currently have the first wild card. The 4-3 Chargers have the next best record, so they have the second wild card. Therefore both of the AFC's wild card spots are currently coming from the West. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

Moving onto the NFC, the 4-4 Cowboys lead the East by one game over the Eagles. The Redskins are a half game back from there, and the Giants are a half game back on Washington.

As for the North, Green Bay leads Detroit by a half game. Chicago is a game behind the Lions, and Minnesota is three games behind the Bears.

Down South, the Saints have a two game lead over the Panthers. The Falcons are two games behind Carolina, and the Buccaneers are two games back of Atlanta.

In the West, the Seahawks lead the 49ers by a game. The Cardinals are two games back of San Francisco, and the Rams are a game back from Arizona.

Looking at the divisional leaders, Seattle leads the way at 7-1. The Saints are second at 6-1: a half game back. A game back from New Orleans are the Packers. The Cowboys are a game and a half behind Green Bay.

The first NFC wild card is currently the 49ers at 6-2. The second belongs to the Lions at 5-3. The NFC playoff picture is the same as last week:

Looking ahead to next week, nine of the twelve playoff positions are locked up before any games have been played. Seven of those are divisional leaderships. Additionally both of the top wild card are already known. Regarding the division leaders, all of the current AFC leaders (Kansas City, Cincinnati, New England, and Indianapolis) will still be leading their division after next week along with Dallas, New Orleans, and Seattle. As for the locked up wild cards, Denver and San Francisco are assured their spots next week.

As for the NFC North, the Packers will retain the lead if they win otherwise the Lions take over (Detroit is on a bye next week).

Six teams have a shot at the second AFC wild card spot. The best chance goes to the Chargers who keep the spot if they win or if all of the contenders lose. The Jets take the spot with a win and a loss by San Diego. The Titans get the spot with a win and a loss by both of the previous teams. If those three all lose, the Ravens can take the spot with a win. The Dolphins take the spot with a win and a loss by the previous four. And if San Diego, New York, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Miami all lose, the Raiders can take over with a win.

The NFC wild card possibilities are simpler. If Carolina wins, they get the spot. Otherwise the result of the Chicago/Green Bay game decides it: the Bears take the spot if they win otherwise the Lions keep the spot with a Packers win.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/20/13 - 10/26/13

At the start of last year, I began publishing a weekly review of my past seven days of activity in regards to Where's George. These reviews were largely focused around key goals/predictions for the year (including bills entered, bills hit, and total hits). Some of the things I tracked, in retrospect, weren't really all that interesting, and a lot of the tracking around bill entries wasn't all that useful. When one really thinks about it, Where's George is all about the hits. As such, I've revamped my weekly reviews to be focused on what was interesting about my hits in the past week, and using that data, scoring the week on a scale of 0 to 10. I'm sure as time goes on that I'll tinker with the scoring system, but I think what I have for now is good for the 1.0 version.

With that said, on a scale of 0 to 10 this past week was a:

1.6

In the past week, I got 27 hits in 9 States [CA¹⁸, FL, GA, MA, NV², NY, VA, VT, WI]. Of those hits, 1 was the 4^th hit on the bill, 2 were the 3^rd hit on the bill, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (21) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
20	21	22	23	24	25	26
0	7	5	4	6	3	2

I came into the week with a 48 day hit streak. When I didn't get a hit on Sunday that streak ended at 48 days: good for a tie for my 9^th longest streak all-time. Here's a look at my all-time ten longest hit streaks:

Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days	Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days
1.	05/12/2013	08/16/2013	97	6.	07/28/2011	09/23/2011	58
2.	10/07/2012	01/02/2013	88	7.	09/26/2011	11/18/2011	54
3.	02/08/2013	05/05/2013	87	8.	06/24/2012	08/16/2012	54
4.	12/28/2011	03/17/2012	81	9.	04/04/2012	05/21/2012	48
5.	04/13/2011	06/30/2011	79	10.	09/02/2013	10/19/2013	48

I ended the week with hits on 6 consectutive days to start a new streak.

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 566. The newly hit counties were Hall GA and Wood WI.

Of the States hit in the past week, 1 was in a "Sleepy" State (a "Sleepy" State is a State in which I haven't received a hit in over twelve weeks) (last hit date in parenthesis): Vermont (11/27/2011 - up until this hit, Vermont had the fourth longest drought State hit-wise). 20 States meet the "Sleepy" status for next week: Alaska (03/02/2010), Delaware (07/14/2011), Kentucky (10/14/2011), Rhode Island (03/04/2012), District of Columbia (09/26/2012), Tennessee (01/17/2013), Wyoming (01/17/2013), South Carolina (03/21/2013), Connecticut (03/30/2013), Nebraska (04/30/2013), Oklahoma (05/05/2013), North Dakota (05/05/2013), Maine (05/25/2013), West Virginia (05/26/2013), Louisiana (06/18/2013), New Hampshire (06/22/2013), Alabama (07/08/2013), Iowa (07/15/2013), Arkansas (07/16/2013), New Mexico (07/31/2013).

Of the bills hit in the past week, 9 were active for more than a year. Of those, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 101 Days 15 Hours 0 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 12^th on my all-time longest active list.

And now, the speed round of data on everything else. 1 of the hits I received in the past week were from Georgers with Profiles: L7338---5M. Additionally 21 of the hits contained notes. 2 of the hits were on non-Georges: $20, $20. The hits were on bills that spread across 8 of the 12 FRBs. The FRBs for which I didn't receive hits were Philadelphia (C), Chicago (G), St. Louis (H), and Dallas (K). I got hits on three new combos in the past week: 1995-$1-JR, 2006-$1-IC, and 2009-$1-DD.

So how did this week end up as a 1.6? To start off the calculation, I compare this week's number with the lowest and highest from the past 12 weeks and score it based on how it fits in that range - so if this week's number is midway between the low and the high, it scores a 0.5 for that category (i.e. if this week's States Hit was 10, the past 12 weeks' low was 5, and the past 12 weeks' high was 15, that'd be a 0.5). A category can be scored at a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.25 meaning that if this week is better than any of the past 12, bonus points are awarded. Some categories are worth more than others (in the 1.0 version, categories are worth either 1 or 2). The sum of the products of the category scores and value results in the overall score for the week. That number is then compared to the overall scores for the previous 12 weeks, and where it ends up in the range results in the week's score on a scale from 0 to 10 (so if the overall score is midway between the two, the week is a 5.0). A week cannot score below 0 or above 10.

Here's a tabular view of this week's scores:

		Past 12 Weeks
Stat	Week	Min	Max	Score	Weight	S*W
Hits that Changed States	11	5	25	0.30	2.0	0.60
Days with Hits	6	6	7	0.00	2.0	0.00
Distinct States Hit	9	4	15	0.45	2.0	0.91
Hits Beyond the 1st on a Bill ¹	11	3	15	0.67	2.0	1.33
Bills Active Over a Year ²	40.1	14.2	53.4	0.66	2.0	1.32
New Counties	2	1	4	0.33	2.0	0.67
Hits from Georgers with Profiles	1	0	5	0.20	2.0	0.40
Hits with Notes	21	19	42	0.09	2.0	0.17
International Hits	0	0	2	0.00	1.0	0.00
Hits on Non-Georges	2	0	4	0.50	1.0	0.50
Hits in "Sleepy" States	1	0	2	0.50	1.0	0.50
Distinct FRBs Hit	8	7	11	0.25	1.0	0.25
New Series/Denom/FRB/Block Combo Hit	3	0	6	0.50	1.0	0.50
* TOTAL *						7.16

¹ - The second hit on a bill is worth 1 point. Each hit thereafter doubles in value (i.e. The third is worth 2 and the fourth is worth 4.).

² - A bill active for a year is worth 1 point. Each additional year doubles in value and partial years add partial value.

The minimum overall score over the past 12 weeks was 4.93 and the maximum was 18.67 so this week's score of 7.16 resulted in a scale score of 1.6.

Yet another dismal week scale score-wise. The lack of a hit on Sunday certainly hurt this week (the week would have been at least a 3.1 with a hit on Sunday). No new minimums were set this week, but no new maximums were either. If that continues to be true, the 12 week maximum will eventually fall resulting in higher scale scores. Not really how I'd like to see improvement, but I would like to have a week that scores over 5.0.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Flyweights

After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.

After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/21/2013			10/20/2013			10/21/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Demetrious Johnson		1	(0)		1			1			1
2.	Joseph Benavidez		2	(1)		2			2			2
3.	John Dodson		3	(2)		3	(5)		3			3
4.	Ian McCall		4	(3)		4	(6)		4			4
5.	John Moraga		5	(4)		5	(7)		8			5
6.	Jussier da Silva		7	(6)		6	(10)		5			8	(9)
7.	John Lineker		6	(5)		9	(13)		6			7
8.	Timothy Elliott		8	(7)		10	(14)		T9	(OC)		6
9.	Chris Cariaso		9	(8)		8	(12)		T9	(OC)
10.	Darrell Montague								7			9	(10)
	Darren Uyenoyama					7	(11)
	Louis Gaudinot		10	(9)

Matches I'd Make

Joseph Benavidez has won three in a row since his split decision loss to Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson in the first ever UFC flyweight championship fight, and it's finally time for the rematch. John Dodson and Ian McCall are both coming off of wins, however not enough wins for either to qualify to take part in the #1 contenders match. So I'd match the two up to get one in position for fight later for a shot at fighting for the belt. The #1 contenders match instead would be John Lineker versus Timonthy Elliott. Seems sad that the highest ranked guys who qualify are 7th and 8th. Chris Cariso is also coming off of a win, but without another guy in the top ten (or event the other two listed) in the same position, I'd match him with Ali Bagautinov. As for those coming off of losses, John Morega (the most recent title challenger) will take on Jussier da Silva while Darrell Montague will match up with Darren Uyenoyama.

Matches the UFC has Made

Johnson/Benavidez will be taking place at the Ultimate Fighter finale at the end of November. Dodson just fought this past Saturday defeating Montague. McCall will be welcoming Scott Jorgensen to the flyweight division at the UFC on FOX card in December. Lineker will be taking on Phil Harris this weekend as part of the UFC Fight Night. Elliott will be taking on Bagautinov at UFC 167.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

I'll keep my Moraga/da Silva and Montague/Uyenoyama fights intact. The only other fight-less guys from the top ten are Dodson and Cariso. I have no reason to believe we need to see that fight. I'd lean towards giving Dodson the winner of McCall/Jorgensen and Cariso the winner of Moraga/da Silva, but that doesn't make an obvious #1 contender for the championship.

Mighty Mouse has wins over the rest of the top five, and if he gets past Benevidez again, title match making for flyweight is going to get tough. Johnson has said that he'd like to fight again for the bantomweight title, but with as easily as Cruz handled him, I don't know that we need to see that. The UFC needs to get some more flyweight talent soon.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 7

AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	10.9%	17.1%	+4.4%	+5.6%
Miami Dolphins	19.1%	29.2%	-4.4%	-9.6%
New England Patriots	45.2%	59.6%	-9.8%	-10.0%
New York Jets	24.8%	37.9%	+9.9%	+11.7%

Losing to the Jets has hurt the Patriots chances, but they still have the beat chance to win the East. This division is currently the second closest of all the divisions in the NFL.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	17.5%	23.6%	-9.2%	-11.5%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.0%	65.5%	+12.9%	+12.0%
Cleveland Browns	16.3%	23.7%	-6.3%	-8.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.2%	17.8%	+2.6%	+4.7%

The Bengals have had a great couple of weeks picking up two wins while their closest rivals lost both weeks. The Ravens and Browns need to pick things up or else the wild card is going to pass them by also.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	12.2%	14.8%	-5.3%	-7.2%
Indianapolis Colts	66.1%	71.1%	+13.7%	+12.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.6%	3.1%	-1.8%	-1.9%
Tennessee Titans	19.1%	26.4%	-6.7%	-8.3%

The Colts got a big win this past weekend and losses by everyone else in the division helped strength the edge gained. At 0-7, Jacksonville is nearing the point where their season is officially done. 9-7 may not be good enough to win the division nor make the playoffs.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	32.3%	75.6%	-11.9%	-6.6%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.9%	88.4%	+10.4%	+6.5%
Oakland Raiders	2.6%	12.6%	-0.1%	+0.6%
San Diego Chargers	9.2%	33.5%	+1.6%	+9.1%

Denver finally lost, so Kansas City finally has a nice advantage in regards to winning the division since they stayed undefeated. Oakland and San Diego are unlikely to win the division, but the Chargers still have hopes of making the playoffs.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	54.8%	63.3%	+12.7%	+12.9%
New York Giants	5.7%	7.1%	+1.1%	+1.4%
Philadelphia Eagles	24.3%	33.9%	-17.3%	-16.1%
Washington Redskins	15.1%	19.5%	+3.6%	+5.1%

Three of the four teams in the division won this past weekend, a nice result for what is potentially the NFL's worst division. The Cowboys now have a commanding lead in regards to chances of winning the division thanks to a win this past weekend over their closest rival (on Philadelphia's field, no less).

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	26.7%	40.1%	-5.2%	-10.5%
Detroit Lions	26.9%	43.8%	-6.2%	-9.5%
Green Bay Packers	41.0%	55.1%	+12.5%	+10.6%
Minnesota Vikings	5.3%	7.6%	-1.0%	-3.4%

The NFC North now has the best three way race in the NFL with Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay all in contention. Minnesota is in pretty bad shape and should be thinking about future seasons.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	10.2%	21.1%	+1.9%	+5.6%
Carolina Panthers	21.3%	36.7%	+3.4%	+8.4%
New Orleans Saints	65.8%	80.2%	-3.1%	-1.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.8%	4.8%	-2.2%	-2.7%

The Saints were off this past weekend, and while they were resting, the Panthers and Falcons both won. Regardless, New Orleans still has a very strong lead in the South.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	4.9%	19.2%	-7.2%	-11.0%
San Francisco 49ers	28.1%	65.6%	+3.4%	+10.2%
Seattle Seahawks	58.2%	82.1%	+9.4%	+10.5%
St. Louis Rams	8.8%	19.8%	-5.6%	-10.4%

Seattle and San Francisco are both likely playoff teams, the big question is who will win the division. As of now, the Seahawks are much more likely.

The list of teams that might not win their division even if they win out has increased dramatically this week. Eighteen of the twenty-four non-division leaders now are at less than 100%. Additionally three of the teams might not even make the playoffs if they win out. Those teams are Jacksonville (75.2%), New York Giants (99.8%), and Tampa Bay (99.8%).

	Div Win
Jacksonville Jaguars	59.7%
Oakland Raiders	63.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	66.2%
Arizona Cardinals	80.2%
New York Giants	87.9%
Atlanta Falcons	96.2%
Minnesota Vikings	96.6%
Buffalo Bills	96.8%
St. Louis Rams	98.6%
San Diego Chargers	99.0%
Houston Texans	99.1%
Cleveland Browns	99.4%
Washington Redskins	99.5%
Philadelphia Eagles	99.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6%
New York Jets	99.6%
Detroit Lions	99.8%
San Francisco 49ers	99.9%

Monday, October 21, 2013

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 7

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

And then there was just one ... The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's only remaining undefeated team. Additionally there is one less remaining winless team bringing it down to two: Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have played one less game. I'd bet on them getting a win before the Jaguars. But there's much more to this season than these teams. Here's a look at the full picture:

Starting off with the AFC East, New England still leads the division but now by just a game over New York (who beat them this weekend). Miami is a half game back on the Jets (the home loss to the Bills this weekend was pretty bad), and Buffalo is a half game back on the Dolphins.

Moving onto the North, the Bengals added another game of separation between them and the Browns and Ravens. They now lead by two. Baltimore has the tiebreaker lead over Cleveland by virtue of having the head-to-head victory. The Steelers are a half game back on Balitmore and Cleveland in fourth.

Down South, Indianapolis was the only team to record a win, and they now lead Tennessee by two. Houston follows a game back. Winless Jacksonville is two games behind the Texans.

With the undefeated tie broken in the West, the Chiefs lead the Broncos by a game. The Chargers are two games back from Denver but have a winning record. Oakland is a game and a half behind San Diego in last.

Moving on to ranking the divisional leaders, Kansas City has a two game lead on all of the other divisional leader. The three way tie between New England, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis is broken by conference record. The Bengals are best in that regard at 3-1 followed by the Colts (3-2) and then the Patriots (2-2).

As for the wild card teams, Denver has the best record of the second place teams at 6-1 and have the #5 seed. The #6 seed comes down to a tie between the Jets and Chargers (both at 4-3). They haven't played, so the head-to-head tiebreaker is out. Both have a 2-3 conference record, so they're even there. They will play 5 common games this year, and keeping in mind that unplayed games are considered ties, New York has a better record in common games: 0-1-4 to 0-2-3. So the Jets get the #6 seed for now. The full AFC playoff picture is:

Over on the NFC side, the Cowboys lead the East by a game over the Eagles (whom they defeated this past weekend). The Redskins are a half game back on Philadelphia. The Giants, who just got their first win, are a game and a half behind Washington at the bottom of the division.

Up North, Green Bay has jumped to the top of the division with a half game lead over Chicago and Detroit. The Lions still has the lead over the Bears based on head-to-head victory. The Vikings are two and a half games between those two.

In the South, the Saints were off but still lead the Panthers by two games. Atlanta is a game back of Carolina, and the winless Buccaneers are two back on the Falcons.

Out West, Seattle still leads San Francisco by a game (and a head-to-head victory). The Cardinals and Rams are tied two games back of the 49ers, and St. Louis has the tiebreaker edge since they have the head-to-head victory.

The NFC's divisional leaders are easier to rank than the AFC's since all are ranked by record. The Seahawks are tops at 6-1 followed by the Saints at 5-1. The 4-2 Packers are third followed by the 4-3 Cowboys.

The wild cards are also easily gathered. The Niners have the first one and the Lions have the second. Here's the current NFC playoff picture:

Looking ahead to next week, nine of the twelve playoff positions are locked up. The Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks are all guaranteed to be leading their divisions at the end of week 8. Additionally the Broncos and 49ers are locked in as the top wild card on each side. And the Patriots will have a spot either the leader of the AFC East (if New England wins or the Jets lose) or the final wild card in the AFC.

If New England loses and the Jets win, New York will take over the lead in the East. Otherwise, if the Patriots and Jets both win, the Jets will keep the #6 seed. If New York loses, Miami takes the final wild card spot with a win. Otherwise it goes to the Chargers who will be off on a bye.

The NFC North will still be led by the Packers if they win or the Lions lose. Otherwise, Detroit will reclaim the top spot. If the Packers and Lions both win, Detroit keeps the final wild card spot. If at least one of them lose, Carolina takes the wild card spot with a win. If the Lions and Panthers both lose, the Bears take the spot. If Detroit wins and Green Bay and Carolina both lose, the spot goes to the Packers.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/13/13 - 10/19/13

With that said, on a scale of 0 to 10 this past week was a:

0.0

In the past week, I got 21 hits in 8 States [CA¹², GA, HI, NC, NV³, PA, TX, WA]. Of those hits, 1 was the 4^th hit on the bill, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 2 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (17) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
13	14	15	16	17	18	19
5	3	2	3	4	1	3

I came into the week with a 41 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 48 days: good for a tie for my 9^th longest streak all-time. Here's a look at my all-time ten longest hit streaks:

Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days	Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days
1.	05/12/2013	08/16/2013	97	6.	07/28/2011	09/23/2011	58
2.	10/07/2012	01/02/2013	88	7.	09/26/2011	11/18/2011	54
3.	02/08/2013	05/05/2013	87	8.	06/24/2012	08/16/2012	54
4.	12/28/2011	03/17/2012	81	9.	04/04/2012	05/21/2012	48
5.	04/13/2011	06/30/2011	79	10.	09/02/2013	10/19/2013	48

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 1 county bringing my total of counties hit to 564. The newly hit county was Onslow NC.

Of the States hit in the past week, none were in "Sleepy" States (a "Sleepy" State is a State in which I haven't received a hit in over twelve weeks). 20 States meet the "Sleepy" status for next week (last hit in parenthesis): Alaska (03/02/2010), Delaware (07/14/2011), Kentucky (10/14/2011), Vermont (11/27/2011), Rhode Island (03/04/2012), District of Columbia (09/26/2012), Tennessee (01/17/2013), Wyoming (01/17/2013), South Carolina (03/21/2013), Connecticut (03/30/2013), Nebraska (04/30/2013), Oklahoma (05/05/2013), North Dakota (05/05/2013), Maine (05/25/2013), West Virginia (05/26/2013), Louisiana (06/18/2013), New Hampshire (06/22/2013), Alabama (07/08/2013), Iowa (07/15/2013), Arkansas (07/16/2013).

Of the bills hit in the past week, 6 were active for more than a year. Of those, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 315 Days 13 Hours 33 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 124^th on my all-time longest active list.

And now, the speed round of data on everything else. 1 of the hits I received in the past week were from Georgers with Profiles: L3497---5C. Additionally 21 of the hits contained notes. 2 of the hits were on non-Georges: $5, $5. The hits were on bills that spread across 7 of the 12 FRBs. The FRBs for which I didn't receive hits were Boston (A), New York (B), Richmond (E), St. Louis (H), and Minneapolis (I). I got no hits on new combos in the past week.

So how did this week end up as a 0.0? To start off the calculation, I compare this week's number with the lowest and highest from the past 12 weeks and score it based on how it fits in that range - so if this week's number is midway between the low and the high, it scores a 0.5 for that category (i.e. if this week's States Hit was 10, the past 12 weeks' low was 5, and the past 12 weeks' high was 15, that'd be a 0.5). A category can be scored at a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.25 meaning that if this week is better than any of the past 12, bonus points are awarded. Some categories are worth more than others (in the 1.0 version, categories are worth either 1 or 2). The sum of the products of the category scores and value results in the overall score for the week. That number is then compared to the overall scores for the previous 12 weeks, and where it ends up in the range results in the week's score on a scale from 0 to 10 (so if the overall score is midway between the two, the week is a 5.0). A week cannot score below 0 or above 10.

Here's a tabular view of this week's scores:

		Past 12 Weeks
Stat	Week	Min	Max	Score	Weight	S*W
Hits that Changed States	8	5	25	0.15	2.0	0.30
Days with Hits	7	6	7	1.00	2.0	2.00
Distinct States Hit	8	4	15	0.36	2.0	0.73
Hits Beyond the 1st on a Bill ¹	8	3	15	0.42	2.0	0.83
Bills Active Over a Year ²	14.2	21.4	53.4	0.00	2.0	0.00
New Counties	1	1	4	0.00	2.0	0.00
Hits from Georgers with Profiles	1	0	5	0.20	2.0	0.40
Hits with Notes	21	19	42	0.09	2.0	0.17
International Hits	0	0	2	0.00	1.0	0.00
Hits on Non-Georges	2	0	4	0.50	1.0	0.50
Hits in "Sleepy" States	0	0	2	0.00	1.0	0.00
Distinct FRBs Hit	7	7	11	0.00	1.0	0.00
New Series/Denom/FRB/Block Combo Hit	0	0	6	0.00	1.0	0.00
* TOTAL *						4.93

¹ - The second hit on a bill is worth 1 point. Each hit thereafter doubles in value (i.e. The third is worth 2 and the fourth is worth 4.).

² - A bill active for a year is worth 1 point. Each additional year doubles in value and partial years add partial value.

The minimum overall score over the past 12 weeks was 6.52 and the maximum was 18.67 so this week's score of 4.93 resulted in a scale score of 0.0.

One week into the Where's George 4.0 experience, and I finally got my first big zero of a week. Not sure that the two are in any way related, but either way, it was a pretty disappointing week of results George wise. Here's hoping that next week will be better.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Bantamweights

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.

Combined Rankings

		UFC		Fight Matrix			Sherdog			MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/11/2013		10/13/2013			09/23/2013			09/24/2013
1.	Renan Barao		1		1			1			1
2.	Urijah Faber		2		2			2			2
3.	Michael McDonald		3		3	(5)		3			3
4.	Raphael Assuncao		4		4	(6)		5			4	(5)
5.	Eddie Wineland		5		5	(9)		4			5	(6)
6.	Brad Pickett		6					6			6	(7)
7.	Takeya Mizugaki		10		6	(11)		T9	(OC)		8	(9)
8.	TJ Dillashaw		8					8	(9)		7	(8)
9.	Scott Jorgensen		7					7
10.	Wilson Reis				7	(12)
	Bryan Caraway				8	(13)
	Iuri Alcantara				10	(17)		T9	(OC)
	Mike Easton		9
	George Roop				9	(14)
	Erik Perez										9	(10)

A little bit of a precursor first. Dominick Cruz is the UFC Bantamweight Champion but hasn't fought in over two years. Only the UFC still ranks him (as #0 as the rules require). I have left him off of the UFC's list since that's the only one he's on. Since it looks like he's on his way back early next year, the next title shot will be considered to be against him.

Matches I'd Make

Obviously the next title shot has to go to the interim champion: Renan Barao. Barao has done quite the good job defending the interim belt defeating three of the top five fighters. The #1 contenders match will be set up between Urijah Faber (hard to believe that he's already won enough to be back in the picture) and Raphael Assuncao. Then I'd match up Michael McDonald and Takeya Mizugaki and get one of the two back into the title picture. I'd also match up Wilson Reis with Bryan Caraway and hopefully get one of those two into more of the top tens. As for those coming off of losses, Eddie Wineland and Brad Pickett just recently fought, so I'd match up Wineland with TJ Dillashaw and Pickett with Scott Jorgensen and get two of those guys back on track. Just outside the top ten, I'd match up Iuri Alcantara and Mike Easton.

Matches the UFC has Made

Cruz vs Barao has been mentioned but nothing as officially been set up yet. Faber is set to take on McDonald in Sacramento in December. Mizugaki will be welcoming Nam Phan to bantonweight at Fight Night 33. Jorgensen is moving down to flyweight and will be taking on Ian McCall on the December Sacramento card.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

Since it'll still be a bit before Cruz fights and since Assuncao just fought, I'd save him for the winner of Faber/McDonald. I'd keep my Reis/Caraway and Wineland/Dillashaw matchups. As for Pickett, I'd give him Alcantara.

The return of Cruz will be long overdue for the division. Thankfully Barao has kept busy as champion - perhaps too busy as he's beaten many of the top guys. It'll be interesting to see if new challengers emerge or if we see a number of rematches for the title in the upcoming years.