The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.9% | 17.1% | +4.4% | +5.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.1% | 29.2% | -4.4% | -9.6% |
| New England Patriots | 45.2% | 59.6% | -9.8% | -10.0% |
| New York Jets | 24.8% | 37.9% | +9.9% | +11.7% |
Losing to the Jets has hurt the Patriots chances, but they still have the beat chance to win the East. This division is currently the second closest of all the divisions in the NFL.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 17.5% | 23.6% | -9.2% | -11.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 54.0% | 65.5% | +12.9% | +12.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 16.3% | 23.7% | -6.3% | -8.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12.2% | 17.8% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
The Bengals have had a great couple of weeks picking up two wins while their closest rivals lost both weeks. The Ravens and Browns need to pick things up or else the wild card is going to pass them by also.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 12.2% | 14.8% | -5.3% | -7.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 66.1% | 71.1% | +13.7% | +12.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.6% | 3.1% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 19.1% | 26.4% | -6.7% | -8.3% |
The Colts got a big win this past weekend and losses by everyone else in the division helped strength the edge gained. At 0-7, Jacksonville is nearing the point where their season is officially done. 9-7 may not be good enough to win the division nor make the playoffs.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 32.3% | 75.6% | -11.9% | -6.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 55.9% | 88.4% | +10.4% | +6.5% |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.6% | 12.6% | -0.1% | +0.6% |
| San Diego Chargers | 9.2% | 33.5% | +1.6% | +9.1% |
Denver finally lost, so Kansas City finally has a nice advantage in regards to winning the division since they stayed undefeated. Oakland and San Diego are unlikely to win the division, but the Chargers still have hopes of making the playoffs.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 54.8% | 63.3% | +12.7% | +12.9% |
| New York Giants | 5.7% | 7.1% | +1.1% | +1.4% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 24.3% | 33.9% | -17.3% | -16.1% |
| Washington Redskins | 15.1% | 19.5% | +3.6% | +5.1% |
Three of the four teams in the division won this past weekend, a nice result for what is potentially the NFL's worst division. The Cowboys now have a commanding lead in regards to chances of winning the division thanks to a win this past weekend over their closest rival (on Philadelphia's field, no less).
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 26.7% | 40.1% | -5.2% | -10.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 26.9% | 43.8% | -6.2% | -9.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 41.0% | 55.1% | +12.5% | +10.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5.3% | 7.6% | -1.0% | -3.4% |
The NFC North now has the best three way race in the NFL with Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay all in contention. Minnesota is in pretty bad shape and should be thinking about future seasons.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.2% | 21.1% | +1.9% | +5.6% |
| Carolina Panthers | 21.3% | 36.7% | +3.4% | +8.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 65.8% | 80.2% | -3.1% | -1.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.8% | 4.8% | -2.2% | -2.7% |
The Saints were off this past weekend, and while they were resting, the Panthers and Falcons both won. Regardless, New Orleans still has a very strong lead in the South.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.9% | 19.2% | -7.2% | -11.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 28.1% | 65.6% | +3.4% | +10.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 58.2% | 82.1% | +9.4% | +10.5% |
| St. Louis Rams | 8.8% | 19.8% | -5.6% | -10.4% |
Seattle and San Francisco are both likely playoff teams, the big question is who will win the division. As of now, the Seahawks are much more likely.
The list of teams that might not win their division even if they win out has increased dramatically this week. Eighteen of the twenty-four non-division leaders now are at less than 100%. Additionally three of the teams might not even make the playoffs if they win out. Those teams are Jacksonville (75.2%), New York Giants (99.8%), and Tampa Bay (99.8%).
| Div Win | |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 59.7% |
| Oakland Raiders | 63.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 80.2% |
| New York Giants | 87.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 96.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 96.6% |
| Buffalo Bills | 96.8% |
| St. Louis Rams | 98.6% |
| San Diego Chargers | 99.0% |
| Houston Texans | 99.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 99.4% |
| Washington Redskins | 99.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 99.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 99.6% |
| New York Jets | 99.6% |
| Detroit Lions | 99.8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.9% |
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