The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 7.3% | 11.5% | -3.6% | -5.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 10.7% | 18.9% | -8.4% | -10.3% |
| New England Patriots | 65.8% | 76.1% | +20.6% | +16.5% |
| New York Jets | 16.2% | 26.5% | -8.6% | -11.4% |
It was another good week for the Patriots in which they defeated a division rival and watched as the other two teams in the division lost. Only one other team saw their division winning and playoff making percentages jump by double digits (Bengals). None of the other teams in the division are dead yet, but the Grim Reaper is closing in.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16.3% | 22.7% | -1.2% | -0.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 66.3% | 76.4% | +12.3% | +10.8% |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.8% | 14.3% | -6.4% | -9.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.6% | 10.8% | -4.6% | -7.1% |
Other than Cincinnati's three win, the other teams in the division have only combined for one win in the past three weeks, and that win belongs to Pittsburgh. Baltimore and Cleveland have fallen off of the edge of the world, although perhaps a bit of slack could be given to the Ravens who were off this past weekend. Like the East, no teams are out of it in this division, so they'll hit that designation soon.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 12.4% | 15.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 67.0% | 71.8% | +0.9% | +0.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.2% | 1.4% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | 19.4% | 26.5% | +0.3% | +0.0% |
A few weeks ago, this division had the best three way race for the lead, but now the Colts are running away with things. All three of the "top" teams were off this past weekend, and the Texans and Titans will need to return well-rested from the break if they want to make up ground. The Jags are off this weekend (they seem to be off every weekend honestly) and can prep to go 0-8 for the final eight.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 33.4% | 83.5% | +1.1% | +8.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 57.4% | 93.0% | +1.5% | +4.6% |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.2% | 17.9% | -0.4% | +5.3% |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.0% | 33.7% | -2.1% | +0.2% |
Oakland won and San Diego was off, but even still, both saw their odds of winning the division decrease as Kansas City and Denver improved to 8-0 and 7-1 respectively. As of now, we could be seeing both wild cards come out of this division.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 54.7% | 58.2% | -0.1% | -5.1% |
| New York Giants | 10.2% | 11.4% | +4.5% | +4.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20.6% | 24.8% | -3.8% | -9.1% |
| Washington Redskins | 14.4% | 15.9% | -0.6% | -3.6% |
Another bad week for the NFC East with only the Giants picking up a win (against division rival Philadelphia). The Cowboys would have a commanding lead if they hadn't blown leads against the Broncos and Lions. Although they currently statistically have the worst chance, I almost fear that New York is really the favorite to win this division.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 21.9% | 35.0% | -4.8% | -5.1% |
| Detroit Lions | 29.8% | 51.1% | +2.8% | +7.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | 46.8% | 62.3% | +5.8% | +7.1% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.5% | 3.9% | -3.8% | -3.7% |
Home of the best three team race in the NFL, Green Bay has the opportunity to bury Chicago this Monday at home. At this point, the Minnesota is all but done.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.4% | 11.5% | -4.7% | -9.6% |
| Carolina Panthers | 23.7% | 43.5% | +2.4% | +6.8% |
| New Orleans Saints | 70.4% | 84.3% | +4.7% | +4.0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.5% | 2.5% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
Of all teams, the Saints have the largest lead in their division, but the Panthers have started to move forward in the past few weeks and have become part of the wild card conversation. The Buccaneers, who have one less loss than the Jaguars, are the most dead of any team in the NFL.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5% | 24.8% | -0.4% | +5.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 28.5% | 72.6% | +0.5% | +7.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 64.4% | 88.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% |
| St. Louis Rams | 2.5% | 10.0% | -6.3% | -9.8% |
Seattle has won a couple of games on the road that they "should" have lost (against Carolina and St. Louis), and those types of wins are the ones that bring about championships. Things are still strongly indicating that the top wild card team will come out of this division.
There are 19 teams that might not win their division even if they were to win out from here. Of those teams, five may not even make the playoffs if they win out. The Buccaneers have the worst shot at winning their division but have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jaguars.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13.6% | 71.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30.2% | 34.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 41.6% | 94.3% |
| St. Louis Rams | 48.9% | 99.8% |
| Oakland Raiders | 53.7% | 100.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 70.0% | 100.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 81.2% | 100.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | 83.1% | 99.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 92.7% | 100.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 92.8% | 100.0% |
| New York Jets | 93.0% | 100.0% |
| New York Giants | 93.7% | 99.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 97.1% | 100.0% |
| San Diego Chargers | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Houston Texans | 99.0% | 100.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 99.1% | 100.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 99.1% | 100.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 99.6% | 100.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.9% | 100.0% |
The NFL's top team (the Kansas City Chiefs) have started to lock up their playoff spot. Even if Kansas City lost out from here, they'd still make the playoffs 0.7% of the team. Granted that's not much, but it's interesting that they're already starting to show up in this category.
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