After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.
After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.
In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 09/23/2013 | 09/29/2013 | 09/23/2013 | 09/24/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Anthony Pettis | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Benson Henderson | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Gilbert Melendez | 3 | (2) | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | TJ Grant | 4 | (3) | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Josh Thomson | 5 | (4) | 7 | (8) | 6 | (7) | 6 | (8) | ||||
| 6. | Gray Maynard | 6 | (5) | 9 | (11) | 5 | (6) | 5 | (6) | ||||
| 7. | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 8 | (7) | 6 | (7) | 8 | (9) | 7 | (9) | ||||
| 8. | Rafael dos Anjos | 7 | (6) | 5 | (6) | 9 | (10) | ||||||
| 9. | Nate Diaz | 9 | (8) | 7 | (8) | 8 | (10) | ||||||
| 10. | Diego Sanchez | 8 | (10) | ||||||||||
| Jim Miller | 10 | (9) | 10 | (12) | T10 | (OC) | |||||||
| Donald Cerrone | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Pat Healy | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Jorge Masvidal | T10 | (OC) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title, the next shot goes to T.J. Grant (yes, I know he's hurt, but the UFC could have waited another month for him to be ready). Josh Thompson and Khabib Nurmagomedov are the highest rated fighters after Grant coming off of wins, so I'd pair them together to fight for the next shot. Rafael dos Anjos and Diego Sanchez are the only other fighters in the top ten coming off of wins, so I'd have them face off. As for those coming off of losses, I'd pit Benson Henderson against Gray Maynard to get one of them a win, and I'd match Gilbert Melendez against Nate Diaz (yes, I know that they wouldn't agree to fight each other). Looking beyond the top ten, I'd pit Jim Miller against Donald Cerrone to try to get one of those two back on track. I'd give Pat Healy a fight against Evan Dunham and Jorge Masvidal would be set up against Gleison Tibau.
Matches the UFC has Made
Since Grant is out with an injury, the UFC has set up Thompson with Pettis for the FOX card in December. Melendez will be taking on Sanchez at UFC 167 next month (an unusual loser versus winner match although both decisions were arguable). Maynard has been set up to take on Diaz during the Ultimate Fighter Finale, but Nate has tweeted (jokingly?) that he can't make the fight due to a high school reunion (in November?). Cerrone has been matched up with Dunham for UFC 167, and Masvidal will be taking on Rustam Khabilov at Fight Night 31.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
The UFC has only left me three guys in the top ten coming off of wins: Grant, Nurmagomedov, and dos Anjos. As they are higher ranked, Grant and Nurmagomedov get to face off for the #1 contender slot (I feel T.J. needs to re-earn the title shot after dropping out of two title fights). Though not the usual way of going, I'd pit dos Anjos against Henderson. Miller and Healy put on a barnburner in April, but it's too soon for a rematch. Looking a bit further down the roster, I'd set up Matt Wiman against Healy and Takanori Gomi against Miller.
Lightweight is one of the deeper divisions in the UFC and the logjam at the top is finally starting to get sorted out now that the division seems to be out of "rematch hell". Hopefully the title will continue to be defeated roughly every four months making this division one of the UFC's most active. It'll be interesting to see how long Pettis can hold onto the belt and if we'll see the return of any fighters that dropped to featherweight (Guida and Edgar come to mind although I wouldn't support either) or if Jose Aldo will eventually make the move upwards.
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