After four weeks, the front runners to make the playoffs are really starting to take shape. Opportunities still exist for all teams, but some of the teams need to start picking it up now. What follows is an analysis of each team's playoff chances by randomly determining the outcome of the remaining games. As always, for each set of iterations, one team is picked to win out while another loses their remaining games.
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5% | 25.1% | +2.4% | +5.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 26.9% | 47.9% | -7.9% | -9.5% |
| New England Patriots | 48.0% | 67.6% | +10.4% | +8.0% |
| New York Jets | 13.6% | 26.6% | -4.9% | -10.5% |
By remaining undefeated while having their closest rival (Miami) lose, New England has jumped out to the biggest chance of winning their division of any team in the AFC. The Dolphins have the seventh best chance of making the playoffs in the AFC and are going to have to make up for their loss this past weekend. As for Buffalo, they have the best chance of making the playoffs of any of the teams at the bottom of their division.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 32.9% | 38.5% | -3.1% | -7.4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 29.1% | 36.3% | -6.9% | -9.5% |
| Cleveland Browns | 28.5% | 34.8% | +11.0% | +10.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5% | 11.3% | -0.9% | -2.8% |
4½% separates the Ravens from the Browns with the Bengals in between. Interestingly Cincinnati has a better chance of winning the division than Cleveland who has beaten them.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 22.7% | 33.9% | -9.4% | -10.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 38.8% | 51.2% | +7.6% | +9.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.1% | 8.3% | -4.3% | -5.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | 32.4% | 50.2% | +6.1% | +9.7% |
Although tied record-wise, the Colts hold nearly a 6½% lead over the Titans. Only the Lions have a larger lead between teams with equal records at the top of a division, but Detroit has beaten the team with whom they are tied. The Jaguars have the worst chances of winning the division or making the playoffs of any team in the NFL.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 40.3% | 65.4% | +2.0% | +6.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 39.4% | 62.5% | +1.8% | +6.7% |
| Oakland Raiders | 6.8% | 14.5% | -4.3% | -6.5% |
| San Diego Chargers | 13.6% | 26.0% | +0.6% | +4.4% |
The AFC West is home to the teams with the second and third best chances of making the playoffs. It's going to take quite a bit for the other two teams in the division to make their way back into the picture.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 41.4% | 50.0% | -3.3% | -6.4% |
| New York Giants | 12.0% | 15.0% | -1.6% | -3.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25.3% | 31.6% | -2.8% | -6.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 21.3% | 25.6% | +7.7% | +7.8% |
The Cowboys are 50/50 to make the playoffs at this point, but if they do so, it'll likely be by winning the division. Of all of the NFC divisions, the East is least likely to send a team to the playoffs as a wild card. Of the 0-4 teams, the Giants have the best chance of winning their division or making the playoffs.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 33.2% | 54.3% | -13.6% | -11.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 40.3% | 59.6% | +10.7% | +11.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | 17.7% | 29.8% | +0.7% | -0.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.8% | 18.4% | +2.2% | +3.8% |
By beating Chicago this past weekend, Detroit has taken a 7% lead over the Bears in regards to odds of winning the division. The Bears are more likely than not to make the playoffs at this point and even sport better odds than the NFC East leading Cowboys.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.7% | 23.2% | -5.1% | -7.7% |
| Carolina Panthers | 17.8% | 31.4% | -1.3% | -0.6% |
| New Orleans Saints | 65.3% | 79.7% | +9.4% | +7.3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.2% | 11.9% | -3.0% | -6.1% |
New Orleans has the best chance of winning their division and making the playoffs at this point. Surprising to see a team already almost at an 80% chance of making the playoffs. The rest of the division is in pretty bad shape in regards to making the playoffs.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 17.7% | 36.7% | +2.0% | +7.8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 16.3% | 38.3% | +1.7% | +8.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 55.7% | 74.7% | +4.7% | +6.7% |
| St. Louis Rams | 10.3% | 19.9% | -8.5% | -10.6% |
The Seahawks have the second best chance of winning their division or making the playoffs but they are 10% behind the Saints in regards to the former and 5% in regards to the latter. San Francisco and Arizona are sixth and seventh in regards to making the playoffs. There's a descent chance one of the wild cards will come out of the West.
As with last week, there are teams that might not win their division even if they win out from this point. All of these teams would still make the playoffs as wild cards, and in most situations, they'd still be the division winners. This list is made up of teams that are 2½ games or more (but not all of the teams in that situation) behind the lead in their division (½ game back means that the team lost against the division leader). Of these teams, Tampa Bay is in the worst shape since they are 0-4, the division leader (New Orleans) is 4-0, and the Bucs have lost to the Saints. Even still, they win the division 15 out of 16 times when they win out with the remaining games randomly determined.
| Div Win | |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 93.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 97.7% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 98.2% |
| Oakland Raiders | 98.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 98.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 99.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.7% |
| New York Jets | 99.8% |
| St. Louis Rams | 99.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 99.9% |
| New York Giants | 99.9% |
The best games of week 5 feature undefeated teams going on the road to take on once defeated teams (Saints at Bears, Seahawks at Colts, and Chiefs at Titans) and a couple of 2-2 teams that need wins to stay relevant (Texans at 49ers). Interestingly all five of the undefeated teams are on the road this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if less than half walk away with wins.
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